Follow Ryan on Twitter | Send tips and insights to [email protected]

A programming note: We’ll be off next week and back to our normal schedule on Tuesday, Jan. 3.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyyarrives in Washington today, direct from the eastern frontline city of Bakhmut, for a summit with President Joe Biden — the first time he has left Ukraine since Russia’s February invasion.

He still needs ammo, not a lift: Zelenskyy’s mantra today will be weapons, weapons and more weapons.

Schedule: Zelenskyy is due at the White House at 2 p.m., with a joint press conference at 4:30 p.m. In the evening, he’ll address a joint session of Congress. Speaker Nancy Pelosi is urging attendance.

Expected announcement: U.S. agreement to deliver the Patriot missile defense system to Kyiv, which would allow Ukrainian forces to intercept long-range Russian ballistic and cruise missiles.

What Kyiv won’t get: “The Ukrainian delegation is expected to make another round of pleas for long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, and Gray Eagle and Reaper drones,” report Erin Banco, Jonathan Lemire and Paul McLeary

What could go wrong? Given the intense security issues, the trip could be canceled until the minute Zelenskyy touches down.

What’s the context back home? Millions are without electricity and heating after Russian barrages against critical infrastructure. Maxim Timchenko, the head of Ukraine’s biggest private energy supplier, has been urging those who can flee to leave for the winter.

INTERVIEW — MATTHEW POTTINGER AND WEI JINGSHENG

In the latest edition of our POLITICO @ 15 video interview series, Chinese activist Wei Jingsheng and former deputy national security adviser Matt Pottinger talk about the future of democracy.

In 1978, Wei became China’s most prominent dissident when he posted a signed essay on a wall in Beijing, arguing for democracy. Since then he’s spent 18 years behind bars. Pottinger is now chair of The Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ China Program.

Wei doesn’t hedge on his thoughts:  “If the U.S. continues to choose business interests and tolerate authoritarianism — be it (the) Chinese Communist Party or Saudi Arabia — if they are tolerated for business profits, global democracy will inevitably wane,” he said.

Video interview | Interview transcript

See previous POLITICO 15 conversations:
Linda Thomas Greenfield and Gayle Smith
Larry Summers and Ray Dalio

UNITED STATES — SCALISE LINED UP IF MCCARTHY SPEAKER BID FAILS: Kevin McCarthy is still struggling to mobilize enough support to guarantee him the House speakership. A group of Republican House members have urged Steve Scalise to “be ready” to step up if the McCarthy mess continues.

INDIA — TROOPS MASSING AT BORDER WITH CHINA: Delhi has moved an “unprecedented” number of troops to the disputed border with China, per Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. That follows an “encroachment” by Chinese forces that triggered a skirmish with Indian troops 12 days ago, Amrit Dhillon reports in the Times of London. The powers have been locked in a two-year standoff along the border.

ENVIRONMENT — WHAT’S UP WITH THE COP15 RAILROADING? The world’s governments signed a once-in-a-decade deal earlier this week to halt destruction of Earth’s ecosystems. Or did they?

When China’s environment minister and the COP15 president, Huang Runqiu, announced an agreement at 3:30 a.m. Monday, Montreal time, Congo’s negotiator told assembled delegates he did not support the agreement — after a huddle with delegates from Brazil and Indonesia — the world’s other two rainforest superpowers.

Huang nevertheless announced the deal. Still, “the negotiator from Cameroon called it “a fraud,” while Uganda said there had been a ‘coup d’état,’” at the conference, The Guardian reported.

Later on Monday, the DRC downgraded its objection to "reservations" — meaning the deal sticks.

FINANCE — CRYPTO KING FACES NEW TRANSPARENCY QUESTIONS: After the collapse of FTX, rival Binance — the world’s biggest crypto exchange — promised it would “lead by example” in transparency. A Reuters Special Report casts doubt on those claims.

“Binance declines to say where Binance.com is based. It doesn't disclose basic financial information such as revenue, profit and cash reserves. The company has its own crypto coin, but doesn't reveal what role it plays on its balance sheet,” Reuters reported.

Binance Chief Strategy Officer Patrick Hillmann called the Reuters analysis "categorically false." The exchange now conducts more than half of global crypto trading.

WHAT THE DAVOS CROWD IS READING …

WHAT THE WORLD CAN LEARN FROM RWANDA'S APPROACH TO DRONES: The government of Rwanda has been in a six-year partnership with the World Economic Forum’s Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, and the two parties want to export their model to other countries.

More from WEF on the potential of approach:
— How drones are helping to battle COVID-19 in Africa – and beyond
— Medicine from the Sky

“RESTORING TRUST IN A FRACTURED WORLD”: This collection of nine essays from the Edelman Trust Institute, edited by Matthew Bishop, sets the scene for the 2023 Edelman Trust Barometer, which will be released in Davos in January.

The trend Global Insider is paying most attention to: “the Mass-Class divide” — where high-income earners have become more trusting of institutions since 2019, while lower-income earners remain wary.

WHO’S NOT GOING TO DAVOS? The side event invites are starting to roll in, but some are skipping the party. Mark Read, CEO of WPP, the world’s biggest advertising agency, is over it, per those who work with him closely, and will be skipping the forum for the first time in years. WPP did not immediately reply to a request for comment.

KLEPTOWATCH 

EU’S QATARGATE: Jailed European Parliament Vice President Eva Kaili will appear in court on Thursday, and appears set to blame the father of her child for dragging her into a Qatar bribery scheme without her knowledge, her lawyer told The Times of London.

WHITE CHRISTMAS: Belgian and Dutch customs authorities are enjoying a true “white Christmas” thanks to seizures of more than 10 tonnes of cocaine from banana shipments from Panama and Ecuador arriving in Antwerp port over the past week, worth over $750 million.

Belgian authorities have seized so much cocaine in 2022 that they are struggling to burn it all.

ONE FUN THING — BLOODSUCKERS: Wales once had a dominant position in global trade in leeches and maggots. The Economist reports the nation is close to reestablishing their near-monopoly: Biopharm Leeches supplies up to 70 percent of leeches used in health care worldwide.

OLEG DERIPASKA’S HOTEL SEIZED: A Russian court order is in force to seize Deripaska’s Imeretinskiy hotel complex and marina in Sochi. The complex is valued at around $1 billion, and the order came after the Kremlin asked the Russian billionaire/oligarch to stop criticizing its war in Ukraine.

INSIDE THE LAVISH, SECRETIVE LIVES OF SERGEY BRIN AND LARRY PAGE: The former Google chiefs share a passion for privacy and tax minimization. Page had been “a virtual recluse, spending much of the pandemic holed up on Tavarua, his private Fijian island,” per Hugh Langley and Rob Price, reflecting a “desire for total privacy.”

MUSK TO RESIGN, SORT OF, MAYBE: It’s best to take his tweets with a dose of skepticism. Late on Tuesday, Musk announced his plan, to be implemented after he choses a successor “After that, I will just run the software & servers teams,” he tweeted.

So … he’ll sort of go, but we don’t know when. Furious Tesla investors will be pleased.

MOVES

— Former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd will be Australia’s new ambassador to Washington. He is a fluent Mandarin speaker and completed an Oxford doctorate on the world view of China’s president, Xi Jinping earlier this year. Rudd will leave the Asia Society in New York to take up the ambassadorship.

— Former Rep. Joe Kennedy III (D-Mass.) has been tapped as the U.S. Special Envoy to Northern Ireland for Economic Affairs.

— Adrienne Elrod will serve as the director of external affairs for the Commerce Department’s new CHIPS program, overseeing communications, legislative affairs, intergovernmental affairs and public engagement

Elon Musk’s $44 billion education: The new Twitter CEO has had a crash course in the trade-offs in protecting free expression.

Putin’s Last Stand. Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage outline in Foreign Affairs three scenarios for Russia’s defeat, and the implications of each scenario for the world.

Thanks to editor Heidi Vogt, Jonathan Lemire, Alex Ward, Matt Berg and producer Hannah Farrow.

SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: D.C. Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | ParisPlaybook | Ottawa Playbook| EU Confidential | D.C. Influence | EU Influence | London Influence | Digital Bridge | China Direct | Berlin Bulletin | Living Cities