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HOW TO LOSE – OR KEEP – A SPEAKER IN 2 DAYS

It’s the face-off that everyone in Washington is watching: Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) says he’s days or even hours away from forcing a vote on ejecting Speaker Kevin McCarthy. But that doesn’t mean the vote will look straightforward when (or if) it finally happens.

So we figured we would, like a certain 1990s Nickelodeon heroine, explain it all.

The McCarthy ouster will technically come in the form of what Hill denizens call the “motion to vacate” the speaker’s chair, a tool that has never in history succeeded in removing a speaker. It was last used more than a century ago, but here’s the first wrinkle:

It’s not really a motion at all. Gaetz will have to start by introducing a resolution to declare the office of the speaker vacant. This measure will look something like what a reporter found left on a House bathroom changing table a couple of weeks ago, with Gaetz’s name on it.

Then what happens? Gaetz can get speedy consideration of his resolution by attaching a procedural “privilege” to it. That means McCarthy can take it up immediately or delay consideration for up to two legislative days. Once McCarthy takes it up, the House could travel one of three paths:

• A vote to table Gaetz’s push, effectively killing it. (This is the most likely option.)
• A vote to postpone consideration of it.
• A vote to refer it to a committee.

If Gaetz’s resolution survives an attempt to table it, which is expected to come from McCarthy allies, history would be made. That outcome would require Democrats joining a handful of anti-McCarthy conservatives to support the ouster effort.
OK, THEN what happens? The House would move towards a vote on the Gaetz resolution itself, literally prying the gavel from McCarthy’s hands.

McCarthy’s math: Here’s where it gets extra tricky, with scratch paper needed. More than 200 Republicans will likely support McCarthy continuing as speaker.

The group of Republicans open to removing McCarthy, then, is a tiny fraction of the GOP Conference. With robust arm-twisting, Gaetz can expect a maximum of two dozen allies (and that’s ambitious).

But McCarthy doesn’t need 218 votes to survive. He only needs to get a simple majority of the members voting. That’s where Democrats get their major leverage here, with his fate essentially in their hands.

If Democrats vote present, they can take themselves out of the “members voting” count and allow McCarthy to hang on with less than a full majority of the current House, and with potentially much less support than he got in January’s grueling speaker election.

Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) hasn’t yet indicated how Democrats will vote, promising a “caucus-wide discussion” if Gaetz makes his move. But Gaetz has been talking with Democrats about how many of them would vote to bail out the speaker that most of them abhor.

The DiFi factor: Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s (D-Calif.) funeral is Thursday, which could scramble the House’s schedule (more on that below the jump). A bevy of House Democratic absences could upend the math we outlined above, making it easier for McCarthy to hang on.

If this scenario happens, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) might call it history repeating. As Massie recalled on Monday, the conservatives whipping against former Rep. John Boehner’s (R-Ohio) speakership bid in 2015 saw their efforts start to fail after some Democrats skipped the vote – to attend the late Gov. Mario Cuomo’s (D-N.Y.) funeral.

If McCarthy is booted, what next? His immediate replacement won’t be chosen by Gaetz – it will be handpicked by McCarthy himself. Here’s why.

Under a system created after Sept. 11, 2001, to ensure continuity of government, the House clerk would bring out a thus-far-secret list of McCarthy’s preferred successors. The first name on that list would immediately become an acting speaker, with all the authority of a regular speaker, and thus empowered to oversee the election of a new speaker.

— Katherine Tully-McManus

GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Monday, Oct. 2, where we can’t stop watching this video of Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.).

SENATE SCHEDULING UPDATE

The Senate will not be in session on Thursday, to make space for the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s (D-Calif.) funeral.

That means a short week for the chamber, which will vote Tuesday evening and leave some time on Wednesday afternoon.

– Daniella Diaz

FLORIDA MEN STAND APART: SCOTT DISTANCES FROM GAETZ

Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) knows what it’s like to challenge a GOP leader. Nevertheless, he’s staying away from what Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) is doing in the House.

Fresh from failing to topple Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in a leadership race last year, Scott said in a Monday interview that he doesn’t “have enough information” to specifically weigh in on what Gaetz is up to. But Scott’s been picking up plenty of frustration from House conservatives, whom he meets with regularly, about Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s handling of the spring debt deal with President Joe Biden.

Scott also talks with McCarthy, giving him a unique vantage point on the brewing conflict among House Republicans as Gaetz threatens to try to oust McCarthy.

“He’s got a hard job,” Scott said of the speaker. “My experience with him is that I can have a conversation with him. That’s the only standard I can go by. But, he didn’t pick an easy job.”

“I can understand that some people I know in the House are frustrated over the debt deal that was done earlier this year,” Scott added. “Now, whether that means that somebody should not be the speaker, that’s a decision for the House.”

Flashback: McCarthy and Scott talked on Friday about pushing through a spending bill without Ukraine aid and with disaster aid, an approach championed by Scott. The senator argued that his strategy, which prevailed over the Senate’s bipartisan Ukraine-funding-rich proposal, was the only one that could have prevented a shutdown.

Calling the now-defunct Senate bill “the McConnell-Schumer CR,” Scott said bluntly: “That was not going to pass.”

— Burgess Everett

WHY SPARTZ IS IN A CLASS BY HERSELF

Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) on Monday threatened to resign if Congress doesn’t pass a debt commission — without reminding people that she is not running for reelection.

It was only the latest grand gesture from the mercurial second-term lawmaker, who’s built up a rich history of big criticisms and threats that, when they’re made in public, don’t always come to pass.

In honor of her latest vintage-Spartz move, let’s look back at a few of her greatest hits.

• Alleged mistreatment of aides in her office: Last year Olivia reported on Spartz’s sparse office and trouble retaining staff, which earned her the nonpartisan website Legistorm’s ignominious honor of the House member with the most employee turnover. One key excerpt from that story — “Spartz likened her aides’ writing skills to those of elementary-school students and proclaimed that her children were more talented than her staff.”
• The flip-flop on booting Omar: When Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) faced a GOP push to yank her from the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Spartz said she wouldn’t back the effort because it would set a negative precedent. She eventually flipped her vote and supported ejecting Omar in January.
• Her public thrashing of Zelenskyy: The Ukrainian-born Spartz rubbed some members of her conference the wrong way when she publicly broke with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy amid the country’s invasion by Russia. One senior House Republican anonymously, and bluntly, responded at the time: “What the f–k.”
• Spartz sends McCarthy a … colorful letter on spending: Back in July, Spartz sent McCarthy a letter voicing her unhappiness about his handling of the GOP funding debate. “As you know, we can wipe our *** (you know what) with all letters and grandiose statements we are sending to the executive branch. Only money matters,” she wrote in that letter (which carries a touch of dramatic irony in light of Monday’s statement from her office).

— Daniella Diaz

SCOOP: A CISNEROS COMEBACK?

The centrist New Democrat Coalition is endorsing former Rep. Gil Cisneros in his comeback bid to reclaim California’s 31st District. Cisneros, a former New Democrat, most recently served in the Biden administration after losing his 2020 reelection bid to Rep. Young Kim (R-Calif.).

Rep. Grace Napolitano’s (D-Calif.) retirement has kicked off a competitive primary in the deep-blue of the district, which shares a fraction of its territory with Cisneros’ old swing seat.

“There’s no doubt he’s the best candidate to represent this district and continue our Coalition’s work of lowering costs, growing the middle class, and strengthening the economy,” New Democrat Coalition Chair Annie Kuster (D-N.H.) said in a statement.

— Nicholas Wu

Some progressives — Reps. Greg Casar, Maxwell Alejandro Frost and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — went to All Things Go this past weekend and caught up with none other than… Phoebe Bridgers.

Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) says he didn’t hard launch his husband on social media.

Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) said on The View she’d like to see House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (N.Y.) become speaker.

QUICK LINKS

GOP senators weigh go-big-or-go-home strategy on Ukraine, from Burgess Everett and Ursula Perano

Bowman’s fire alarm fallout resonates back home and in Washington, from Emily Ngo and Jeff Coltin

Matt Gaetz’s father seeks return to Florida Senate, from Gary Fineout

TOMORROW IN CONGRESS

The House is in session.

The Senate is in session.

TUESDAY AROUND THE HILL

3 p.m. Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) will have a press conference on Ukraine funding. (Senate Swamp)

FRIDAY’S ANSWER: Graydon Daubert correctly guessed that the first shutdown during President Donald Trump’s tenure was related in part to disputes over the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals.

TODAY’S QUESTION from Graydon: Former President Jimmy Carter, who yesterday celebrated his 99th birthday, is the longest-lived U.S. president. Which president held the record before him?”

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answers to [email protected].

GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each evening.

Follow Daniella on X at @DaniellaMicaela.