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Thanks for reading the Ottawa Playbook. We’re your hosts, Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Kyle Duggan, with Zi-Ann Lum. Today, we set you up for the main event in Alberta. We preview BILL MORNEAU‘s virtual return to the Hill. And we have today’s meetings, birthdays and best-reads.

DEBATE NIGHT — Of course we’re watching Debate Night in Alberta. A high-stakes, tightly fought campaign that pits a populist rabble-rousing premier against a left-winger who hopes to be the first former premier to win again after a crushing loss?

… with frosty Alberta-Ottawa relations on the line?

… and wildfires forcing residents from their homes by the thousands?

This is a debate worth your attention, too.

Look no further than Calgary Sun columnist RICK BELL‘s latest interview with DANIELLE SMITH for a rough blueprint of the United Conservative leader’s rhetorical plans for tonight’s debate with NDP challenger RACHEL NOTLEY.

Eleven days and counting from voting day in Alberta, current Premier Smith and former premier Notley are due onstage for their sole showdown in a bruising campaign that appears to be anyone’s to win.

— High stakes and deadlock: Here’s 338Canada’s Philippe J. Fournier writing for POLITICO Canada on the state of play.

— It won’t be a snoozer: An Ipsos poll for Global News had 43 percent of voters saying the debate “will be an important factor in my vote decision.”

Recall the impact of the 2015 debate, when the late JIM PRENTICE was pilloried for saying “math is difficult” — a swipe at Notley that backfired badly. The NDP leader never trailed in a poll after that debate on her way to a surprise majority win.

— The NDP’s view: The hard-charging New Democrats want to frame the provincial race as a referendum on Smith’s fitness to lead.

That video in which the incumbent premier appeared to compare double-vaxxed Canadians to Hitler’s followers back in the day? That was catnip for the NDP. They want convertible conservative voters to be so embarrassed by their leader that they flip or stay home.

— Smith’s rebuttal: Flip the script. The UCP leader road-tested some lines in Bell’s column inches.

Zinger: “The only way they think they can win is fear and smear.”
Playbook translation: Here’s something catchy to blunt the NDP attack.

Zinger: “She’s running away from her record and there’s good reason for that. She’s got nothing to be proud of there. Why is she not wanting to talk about the things she did when she was premier? I can tell you why. It’s a terrible record and she doesn’t want to run on it.”
Playbook translation: Remember, voters booted Notley from office in 2019 for a reason.

Zinger: “There’s nothing scary about reducing debt, putting money into savings, reducing taxes, creating jobs and making life more affordable.”
Playbook translation: This is where I pivot to the positive.

Zinger: “I don’t live on Twitter. I live in the real world.”
Playbook translation: Critics who dredge up old videos and hunt for gaffes spend too much time on social media. Most Albertans are thinking about other things.

(To which Smith’s critics might reply: You have a candidate who called transgender kids what? You want to do what about high interest rates?)

HOW SMITH WINS — Playbook asked COLE HOGAN, a principal at Earnscliffe who ran the UCP’s digital campaign in 2019 that brought JASON KENNEY to power, to set expectations for the debate.

— Sound reasonable: “During the UCP leadership debates, candidates lobbed bombs at Smith on multiple issues and she walked away mainly unscathed. If Notley comes in too hot and Smith can demonstrate she’s not a scary person, and come across as authentic and sincere, she may be able to neutralize the bad press.”

— Energize the voter base: “Rural Alberta, as well as Calgary and suburban Edmonton. She’s speaking to those who voted conservative in 2019 and won’t vote NDP but might stay home this time around. The potentially reluctant UCP voter needs to be motivated once more.”

— Soften the edges: “Smith has strengths as a conversationalist. She’ll strike a friendly, conciliatory tone during the debate. Smith will stick to the UCP’s platform and economic plan while fighting fire with fire when it comes to her and Notley’s respective records as premiers.”

— Pivot, pivot, pivot: “Smith could get cornered on her previous comments — but can easily pivot back to Notley’s record as premier. The more Notley talks about Smith, the more Smith can respond with the impact of Notley’s policies on the province. Just enough to give Smith the edge.”

HOW NOTLEY WINS — We also asked blogger and podcaster DAVE COURNOYER (better known regionally as Daveberta) for his take on Notley’s keys to victory as cameras roll.

— Push the narrative: “The NDP have skillfully used Smith’s own words to frame the UCP leader as a risky and untrustworthy choice in this election. If Notley is able to reinforce that image of Smith while presenting herself as a responsible and trustworthy leader then I think she walks away from the debate in a strong position.”

— Age of persuasion: “Notley needs to convince voters in Calgary and the suburban ridings around Edmonton to lend the NDP their vote — and the word ‘lend’ is important. A lot of conservative voters are really uncomfortable with Smith but not totally sure they are ready to vote NDP. Notley needs to convince those voters that she will bring stability and calm to the Premier’s Office.”

— Assuage fears: “Early in the campaign the NDP ran a spoof attack ad against Notley saying, among other things, that she likes to wear blue jeans. Notley looks like she has been having a pretty fun time on the campaign trail, so I think she will try to present a confident and friendly tone in an effort to neutralize any of the ‘scary NDP’ claims Smith uses during the debate.”

— Tax spat: “Look for Notley and Smith to spar over the NDP’s plan to raise corporate tax rates from 8 percent to 11 percent, which the UCP is framing as a 38 percent increase (which is both true and spin).”

— Where to watch: Global Edmonton’s SCOTT ROBERTS and CTV News’ ERIN ISFELD will moderate the debate. Albertans can watch on Global, CTV, CBC and CityNews. Postmedia will run a livestream, as will globalnews.ca and CTVNewsEdmonton.ca.

The fun begins at 6 p.m. local time. That’s 8 p.m. in Ottawa and 9:30 in Newfoundland.

YOU ARE INVITED — We’re taking Ottawa’s POLITICO Trivia Night on the road!

On May 23, Playbook’s NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY will be in Calgary: RSVP here!

On May 24, he’ll be at Hudsons Canada’s Pub in Edmonton. RSVP here!

FAMILIAR FACES — While the buzzards are still picking away at his political carcass and reviewing the memoir he wrote in defense of his prowess, former finance minister BILL MORNEAU will appear before the House transport committee as it studies the “role” the McKinsey consultancy played in the Canada Infrastructure Bank. (McKinsey bigwigs last week told the committee it did not create or devise the bank.)

Appearing at the same time is former McKinsey exec and also former ambassador to China DOMINIC BARTON, who was the volunteer chair of Morneau’s advisory council on economic growth in the early years of the Trudeau government. The council had recommended creating the CIB while he was still at the firm.

Barton’s appearance comes just ahead of an awkwardly timed appointment overseas next week, given what’s been gripping Parliament these days. He jets off to Beijing for a Canada China Business Council fireside chat that will touch on China’s relationship with the West.

The committee voted earlier this month to serve Morneau and Barton with summonses to appear for the politically charged study. Although, both witnesses are slated to appear by videoconferencing, so it’s unlikely too many sparks will fly. So, don’t expect to get your copy of “Where To from Here” signed if you show up in person.

WORK IT — Indigenous business leaders want Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU to get an endorsement for natural gas into the final communiqué at the G-7.

“There was a signal and an understanding that [liquified natural gas] wasn’t going to be discussed in a substantive way at the G-7 summit,” said JOHN DESJARLAIS, executive director of the Indigenous Resource Network, and one of five signatories.

KAREN OGEN, executive director of the First Nations LNG Alliance, also signed the letter, saying equity agreements are a sign of changing times. “Indigenous people are finally at the table,” she said.

Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON’s office responded to the letter telling Playbook that Indigenous engagement was addressed at the climate, energy and environment ministers’ meeting in April.

DONOR WATCH — Liberals are planning a spate of fundraisers during next week’s Victoria Day break week.

Immigration Minister SEAN FRASER will be in Richmond, B.C., on May 25 for a double-barreled event with MPs WILSON MIAO and PARM BAINS. Families Minister KARINA GOULD headlines an evening event in her own riding on the same night.

Innovation Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE headlines a May 26 fundraiser for Liberal MP ALEXANDRA MENDÈS at the Country Club of Montreal — the second-oldest golf course in town, dating to 1910.

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Hiroshima, Japan for the G-7 Leaders’ Summit.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Brampton, Ontario for a 1 p.m. round table with local small business owners. She joins Small Business and Economic Development Minister MARY NG and local MP SONIA SIDHU at 1:30 p.m. for an announcement about “helping small businesses.”

5 p.m. Tory leader PIERRE POILIEVRE headlines a Bay Street fundraiser somewhere within the TD Canada Trust Tower in downtown Toronto.

— A POLITICO team from Brussels, Washington, London and Ottawa sets up the G-7 summit.

— Do not miss RON GRAHAM on the misadventures of BILL MORNEAU.

— From CP’s JAMES MCCARTEN: Both sides in Line 5 pipeline debate clash today.

— “The Conservatives know their pathway to victory lies in battling the Bloc Québécois for francophone votes,” ALTHIA RAJ writes in her latest column. “What we learned this week is Poilievre is willing to play with immigration to get there.”

— POLITICO video: ChatGPT founder calls on U.S. Senate to regulate AI.

— The Globe’s CAMPBELL CLARK asks: Do the feds or the province even know how much Stellantis is really worth?

— Over at Policy Magazine, PPF’s BRIAN BOHUNICKY has some thoughts on fixing the “unhealthy” relationship between senior political staff and the bureaucrats before reforming the public service.

— Still on the centralization of power in PMO, Carleton University associate professor and former CAQ MNA ÉMILIE FOSTER writes for Policy Options on the need to strengthen the voices of backbenchers.

— In case you missed it, Canada and the U.S. are teaming up to tackle nuclear waste.

Birthdays: HBD to NIGEL WRIGHT (60!), former Cabmin GORDON O’CONNOR and former MPs BOB DECHERT and DENNIS GRUENDING.

Birthday greetings also go to PMO strategic comms adviser MICHELLE JOHNSTON.

Do you have a birthday coming up? Does a colleague? Send us the dates and we’ll tell the world.

Spotted: MP JOËL LIGHTBOUND paying tribute to ANDREW BOYLE and TREVOR HARRISON in the House on Wednesday as he recognized May as Brain Tumor Awareness Month.

In Washington at the Canadian Embassy’s cocktail reception with the crew of Artemis II lunar mission: NASA Administrator BILL NELSON, Canadian ambassador KIRSTEN HILLMAN, Canadian Space Agency President LISA CAMPBELL, Rep. JOHN JAMES (R-Mich.), Rep. DAN CRENSHAW (R-Texas), Rep. JEFF JACKSON (D-N.C.), Rep. SETH MAGAZINER (D-Rhode Island), Canadian American Business Council CEO SCOTTY GREENWOOD, Rideau Potomac Strategy Group president ERIC MILLER and POLITICO’s LUIZA SAVAGE.

On the 2023 Canada’s 100 Best Restaurants list, Ottawa restaurants: ALICE, RIVIERA, ARLO, SUPPLY AND DEMAND, PERCH, ATELIER, NORTH & NAVY and GITANES.

The Business Council of Canada’s ROBERT ASSELIN with former U.S Treasury Secretary LARRY SUMMERS in Washington … The PIERREFONDS-DOLLARD YOUTH COUNCIL and the WEST ISLAND BLACK COMMUNITY ASSOCIATION on the Hill.

Movers and shakers: Former Supreme Court justices IAN BINNIE, MARSHALL ROTHSTEIN and former Federal Court and the Federal Court of Appeal judge ELEANOR DAWSON have been appointed arbiters to an ad hoc parliamentary committee struck to study documents related to two scientists fired from Winnipeg’s National Microbiology Laboratory.

Pollster NIK NANOS has been appointed adjunct research professor at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs.

— The engineering giant SNC-Lavalin posted a pile of communication reports on Tuesday.

The company has met in the past six weeks with MICHAEL CALLAN, Canada’s ambassador in Algeria; BUD SAMBASIVAM, director of policy to CHRYSTIA FREELAND; EAMONN MCGUINTY and NINA LOTHIAN, senior policy advisers to STEVEN GUILBEAULT; MARY-CATHERINE SPEIRS, executive director of trade policy and negotiations at Global Affairs; PETER WILKINSON, chief of staff to MÉLANIE JOLY; CAROLINE SÉGUIN, Joly’s director of strategic initiatives; Liberal MP JOHN MCKAY; Sen. JULIE MIVILLE-DECHÊNE; Conservative MP KYLE SEEBACK; and DARREN HALL, policy adviser to PIERRE POILIEVRE.

If you’re a subscriber, don’t miss our latest policy newsletter via ZI-ANN LUM: Golden age of task forces.

In other Pro headlines:
— Snooki, Tucker Carlson and the battle for offshore wind in New Jersey.
— Canadian lawmaker speaks out on being targeted by China.
— High chance of world briefly exceeding 1.5C in coming years, scientists say.
— Chips makers hope ChatGPT will generate industry boom amid global slump.
— Washington confronts a new AI fight.

→ Find the latest House committees here

→ Keep track of Senate committees here

9 a.m. The parliamentary budget officer releases a new report titled, “A Distributional Analysis of the Clean Fuel Regulations.”

9 a.m. Canadian Tamil organizations and Ottawa Tamil Association hold a press conference in West Block to commemorate Tamil Genocide Remembrance Day.

9 a.m. The Senate agriculture and forestry committee has plans to continue their study of soil health in Canada.

9 a.m. The Senate energy committee meets to continue studying climate change and Canada’s oil and gas industry.

9 a.m. The Senate fisheries and oceans committee meets to discuss the government’s response to its fourth report.

11 a.m. Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE, Sen. PIERRE-HUGUES BOISVENU and MP RAQUEL DANCHO hold a press conference in the Sir John A. Macdonald Building to discuss a bill that aims to strengthen the rights of victims of crime.

11 a.m. Via videolink, BILL MORNEAU joins t he House transport, infrastructure and communities’ committee’s meeting probing McKinsey’s role in the creation of the Canada Infrastructure Bank. DOMINIC BARTON is also on the roster of virtual witnesses.

11 a.m. Elections Canada Chief Electoral Officer STÉPHANE PERRAULT and Leaders’ Debates Commission Executive Director MICHEL CORMIER join the first hour of the House procedure and House affairs committee to talk about main estimates. MPs resume their foreign interference study in the second half with testimony from WALIED SOLIMAN and TAUSHA MICHAUD.

11 a.m. The House science committee meets to continue its study of the government’s graduate scholarship and post-doctoral fellowship program.

11:30 a.m. POLITICO hosts its Energy Summit in Washington. Speakers include Secretary of Energy JENNIFER GRANHOLM, Deputy U.S. Trade Representative JAYME WHITE and Wilson Center Canada Institute director CHRISTOPHER SANDS.

11:30 a.m. Justice Minister DAVID LAMETTI is the headlining witness at the Senate legal and Constitutional affairs committee’s study of Bill C-47.

11:30 a.m. The Senate social affairs committee continues its study of Bill C-47.

11:30 a.m. The Senate banking committee meets to study Bill C-47.

3:30 p.m. Women and Gender Equality and Youth Minister MARCI IEN joins the House status of women committee to take questions about main estimates.

3:30 p.m. Auditor General KAREN HOGAN will be at the House heritage committee to take questions about her office’s report on connectivity in rural and remote areas.

3:30 p.m. Housing and Diversity and Inclusion Minister AHMED HUSSEN will be in the hot seat at the House public accounts committee to discuss the auditor general’s report on chronic homelessness.

3:30 p.m. The House fisheries committee meets to continue their study of foreign ownership and corporate concentration of fishing licenses and quotas.

6:30 p.m. The House veteran affairs committee meets to study the experience of women veterans.

Wednesday’s answer: “Embrace it. Work with it. Don’t lose sight of your own focus …” This is the advice of the newly retired PATRICIA BOVEY, who left the Upper Chamber on May 15.

Props to CAMERON RYAN, SYDNEY LINHOLM and GEORGE SCHOENHOFER.

Today’s question: “It was [May] the 17th … or the 18th. Whatever.” On one of these dates in history, what Canadian city was founded?

Send your answer to [email protected]

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: [email protected]

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