Winners, losers and the biggest takeaways from the New Hampshire debate
February 7, 2020MANCHESTER, N.H. — When the moderators of Friday’s presidential debate offered Bernie Sanders the chance to hit Joe Biden on whether he'd done enough to support black voters, Sanders said, “I’m not here to attack him.” Instead, it was Pete Buttigieg who found himself in Sanders’ sights.
The senator went after the former mayor twice for having billionaire supporters — a reflection of where the 2020 primary stands heading into the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, with Sanders leading the polls and Buttigieg rising fast. Both candidates leaned hard into their core campaign pitches to try to finish the job, while Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar tried to clamber into the top tier — and Joe Biden, meanwhile, announced he wasn’t expecting much good news Tuesday night.
What did we learn in the debate? We asked four POLITICO campaign reporters — Stephanie Murray, Holly Otterbein, Elena Schneider and David Siders — for their takeaways from the New Hampshire debate.
Who had the best night? Who had the worst night?
Siders: Let’s start with the worst, because for some inexplicable reason, Biden decided to lead with it. Following a dismal fourth-place showing in Iowa, Biden volunteered near the top of the debate: “It's a long race. I took a hit in Iowa and I’ll probably take one here.”
Normally some expectations-setting might make sense. But Biden should have learned a lesson in Iowa, where his campaign all but screamed from billboards in Des Moines that he might not do that great, and it didn’t spare him from several days of “implosion” coverage. There’s no reason to think it’ll be any different coming out of New Hampshire if he doesn’t do well here.
And for the best? Really, this was a fairly even stage — even including Biden, who channeled some convincing emotion after the opening set. Warren was back on firm “wealth tax” and social justice ground. Klobuchar and Bernie Sanders were sharp, and Tom Steyer had his best debate by far. Whatever adviser told him, finally, to stop staring directly at the camera deserves a raise.
Schneider: I’ll second Siders. Biden started the night with his poor Iowa showing and promising more of the same. Who wants to vote for someone after that?
In contrast, Klobuchar notched another in a string of strong debate performances, taking Buttigieg to task over some glib words about impeachment and skewering Sanders over his self-identification as a Democratic socialist. “We are not going to be able to out-divide the divider-in-chief,” Klobuchar told Sanders, raising her hand when the debate moderators asked if anyone on stage was “concerned about having a Democratic socialist at the top of the ticket?”
Otterbein: We'll find out when the polls come out — and especially when the votes are counted Tuesday. But like everyone else at POLITICO, I was left scratching my head the whole night over Biden proactively conceding defeat in New Hampshire. It reminded me of Biden going viral for telling voters in Iowa that they should vote for someone else when they disagree with him. How did that work out for him?
Sanders faced more incoming than usual tonight — a result of him finishing neck-and-neck with Buttigieg in Iowa and running first in polls of New Hampshire — but I think he ultimately got fairly lucky, because none of the attacks were anything we haven’t heard before, and they weren’t that nasty. Steyer also had a good night in that he simply made viewers pay attention to him.
Murray: I'm going to break with the group and say Biden's debate performance was actually pretty good, aside from predicting his own loss. In previous debates, he was soft spoken and frequently cut himself off. Tonight, Biden spoke with force, got the crowd off its feet, and went on the offensive against his rivals, namely Sanders and Buttigieg. Underperforming in Iowa may have been what Biden needed to kick it in gear, though it may not be enough to help significantly in New Hampshire.
I think Andrew Yang will leave Manchester disappointed: He didn’t get as much speaking time as the other candidates, after suffering a tough showing for his longshot campaign in Iowa.
What surprised you most during this debate?
Murray: Biden was the frontrunner in the polls for close to a year, and there he was predicting failure days before the New Hampshire primary. I understand managing expectations, but predicting a loss was his opening line!
Otterbein: Outside of Biden’s opening, it was interesting to see Warren attack Sanders for once. It was very, very subtle: She said "everyone on this stage except for Amy and me is either a billionaire or receiving help from PACs that can receive unlimited help." I think most voters probably didn’t notice that implicit reference to Our Revolution, the nonprofit group Sanders founded in 2016. But it’s an indication of the two progressives’ positions in the race, with Warren now trying to play catch-up.
Schneider: Buttigieg is still struggling to answer questions about his record in South Bend. After six months of non-stop questions about his failure to diversify the police department or the controversial firing of the first black police chief, Buttigieg stumbled again Friday night in his response to another pointed question, this time about the increase in arrests of black South Bend residents for marijuana possession while he was mayor.
First, Buttigieg dodged the question altogether. Pressed again, he said it was linked to cases in connection with murder or gang violence. And when asked if the answer was satisfactory, Warren simply said, “No.”
Siders: If anyone was going to do audience participation, would you have guessed it’d be Biden? Not me, but it was, and it was pretty effective.
Offered a chance to paint Hunter Biden’s Ukraine connections as a 2020 liability, Buttigieg took the better political path and stood up for the former vice president and his family — and against President Donald Trump. Point for Buttigieg.
But Biden did even better, invoking the ouster of Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman from the White House and Trump’s recent decision to award radio host Rush Limbaugh the Medal of Freedom.
“I think we should all stand to give Col. Vindman a show of how much we support him,” Biden said, as the audience responded. “Stand up and clap for Vindman.”
Did we learn something new about the candidates?
Otterbein: Sanders made a more robust defense of his ability to work across the aisle than usual. Ditto for his electability. He said he’s won 25 percent of the Republican vote in Vermont, and he referenced passing numerous amendments when the GOP controlled the House. That’s something his advisers have long wanted him to do, and it’s an attempt to win over more mainstream Democrats and primary voters terrified about electability against Trump.
Murray: The candidates seemed pretty willing to engage in a lengthy discussion about socialism at the beginning of the debate. It’s a dramatic shift from where the party was even four years ago.
Schneider: Tom Steyer made it clear that he’s going to stake a claim to support from voters of color. On stage, he pummeled his fellow candidates to failing to bring up race in the first hour of the debate, accusing them of ignoring the most important bloc in the Democratic Party. He also called on Biden to “disavow” an endorser who Steyer said “made a racist remark,” an attempt to chip away at the former vice president’s support in South Carolina.
The words dovetail with where Steyer has seen his polling numbers rise: Nevada and South Carolina. Steyer has spent more than $25 million on TV ads in those two states, more than the rest of his presidential opponents combined. He’s also leaving New Hampshire tomorrow, four days before the primary, to campaign in South Carolina instead.
Siders: Based on his rivals’ behavior in this debate, Biden isn’t worth hitting any more (at least not much). The primary has come a long way.
How will this debate change the race ahead of the New Hampshire primary?
Schneider: Klobuchar ended fifth in Iowa, and for her to have any path forward, she needs to knock out one of the other top four candidates in New Hampshire. Her debate performance — spicy one-liners, good humor about being a “fresh face,” and pointed jabs at rivals to her left — made her, once again, a stand out. But Klobuchar’s had strong debate performances before, and it’s not clear if this will be enough to rocket her forward in this race.
Siders: I’d look beyond New Hampshire for this one. Buttigieg did well in Iowa and is surging here, obviously. But what we saw tonight was a preview of how he will address his lack of support among people of color when the primary makes its way to more diverse states. It wasn’t great, as Elena referenced above.
Asked about an increase of marijuana arrests among African Americans in South Bend when he was mayor, Buttigieg said, “The reality is, on my watch, drug arrests in South Bend were lower than the national average, and specifically lower than in Indiana.”
Fair point. But it avoided the question. So when Warren was asked if Buttigieg had sufficiently answered, she said, “No … You have to own up to the facts.” It was an applause line for Warren — and an implicit rebuke of Buttigieg — that may not matter much on Tuesday. But expect it to resonate in future contests.
Otterbein: I don’t think the debate did any favors to Biden, who needs a stronger finish next week than we saw Monday. Given the stakes for Warren — along with Sanders, she is a next-door neighbor senator here in New Hampshire, making it an important contest for her — it was notable that she didn’t change her strategy much.
Murray: I'm not convinced this debate will change what happens in New Hampshire on Tuesday. I came in expecting the candidates to turn up the heat a bit, especially after the chaos in Iowa and another big primary just days away. But aside from a few hits, there was no dramatic moment to shake up the current standing in the race. Remember the big moments in past debates — Kamala Harris’ busing criticism of Biden, or Warren’s memorable denunciation of Buttigieg holding a fundraiser in a wine cave? We didn’t get any of that tonight.
Source: https://www.politico.com/