CRIME AND PUNISHMENT — It’s been 40 years since an incumbent Chicago mayor was defeated, dating all the way back to 1983 when Harold Washington became the city’s first Black mayor by knocking off Jane Byrne in the Democratic primary.

In today’s mayoral election, however, Mayor Lori Lightfoot is at risk of following in Byrne’s footsteps. Only the top two finishers advance to a runoff on April 4; some polls suggest Lighfoot might not make it that far. While her team believes she’ll squeak into the April contest, with eight challengers — including former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas — it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if Lightfoot misses out on the runoff altogether.

Lightfoot’s precipitous fall is due to a confluence of factors, among them her inability to nurture relationships with the other Democrats. As POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin points out today in an incisive look at the race, popular Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker has stayed out of the contest entirely because of how much he and Lightfoot have clashed. Without as much institutional support as a mayor running for re-election might usually expect to enjoy, Lightfoot has had to go on the offensive. For months she’s focused attacks on Democratic Rep. Jesús “Chuy” Garcia, another leading mayoral contender, attempting to paint Garcia as corrupt and tie him to Sam Bankman-Fried, who donated to the congressman’s re-election campaign (the ads may have worked, Garcia’s support has eroded of late).

The local and national political environments have also changed significantly since Lightfoot first won office in 2019. At the time, opponents attacked what they called her pro-police record. For Lightfoot’s part, she attempted to defend her record as a progressive on police reform; in March of 2019 she took to Twitter to proclaim, “Let me be clear: I am not proposing creating any additional police training facilities.”

It’s a contrast from her closing message this year, where she’s swiping left at Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson, likely her biggest competition for second place and a spot in the runoff, arguing “He wants to cut your police.”

The change in tack is a response to Chicagoans who are increasingly concerned about rising crime in their city, an issue that’s hurt Lightfoot. It also reflects a national environment in which many Democrats are pivoting back towards “fund the police” messaging. And yet, it might be too little too late for Lightfoot, who could get squeezed out of the second round thanks to Vallas, who’s captured the support of many white working class voters, and a coterie of progressive candidates attacking Lightfoot from the left.

To make sense of the confluence of forces — some national and some hyper-local — that have influenced the first round of the Chicago mayor’s race, Nightly spoke with Shia Kapos, the author of POLITICO’s Illinois Playbook. This interview has been edited.

With Mayor Lightfoot scrambling to win a second term and a whole slate of city council races on the ballot, it’s a pretty busy Election Day in Chicago. What is today’s vibe in the city? What would we see if we were on the ground there today?

It’s been a beautiful day in Chicago for the election — sunny and no snow. That could mean voter turnout will be up. The polling places I’ve seen have folks voting, but there are no long lines. That usually comes at the very end, about 6 p.m. after people are off work. Wherever you go, people are talking about it. It’s become a parlor game. Even people from the suburbs are paying attention. That’s in part because what happens in Chicago affects everyone. But it’s also just because the outcome is a big unknown. And if someone thinks they know they answer, they really can’t be believed. No one knows who will get into the runoff.

Polls have suggested the mayor is in a very precarious position — there’s even speculation that she might not make the runoff. How bad is it?

A range of pollsters have put out polls and it’s hard to know their methodology. They all have Paul Vallas, the former schools chief, in front and ahead of the mayor. And then it gets murky after that. Mayor Lightfoot has been ranked second in some polls and Brandon Johnson, a county commissioner, has had that spot, too. Congressman Chuy Garcia was a frontrunner at one point a few months ago, but he appears to have lost momentum. It’s hard to tell because we know Latino voters aren’t always polled or aren’t polled well. Johnson and Garcia both pull from progressive voters, so Lightfoot is hoping they might cancel each other out. But that gives you an idea about how precarious it is for her.

Why is the mayor in so much political trouble? After all, it’s been decades since a Chicago mayor has been defeated.

The mayor’s Achilles heel has been the persistent crime in Chicago. Every city is experiencing it but Chicago has always been worse. Gun violence and homicides went up everywhere during the pandemic. But Chicago already had a crime problem so this seemed worse. It hit communities not usually affected so much — white neighborhoods where Lightfoot was endorsed four years ago. They are the Lakefront Liberals that people sometimes talk about.

They backed her four years ago. But now that they’re concerned about crime, they are pointing to her as the reason why. To some extent, it’s a matter of perception. Homicides have actually gone down in the past year, but they are still higher than when Lightfoot took office. And people perceive it to be terrible. Lightfoot recognizes this and is sympathetic to it and just hopes that people see she’s trying to do something about it. It’s not a problem that can be fixed overnight. Meanwhile, she’s facing a rival, Paul Vallas, who has really latched on to public safety, sometimes with sensationalistic ads, and it’s resonating with people.

Who are her main rivals and what are their closing messages?

Lightfoot’s main rivals are Vallas, who is a conservative Democrat, and Johnson and Garcia to her left. There are also five other candidates in the race — who are all African American. That adds another dimension to the contest because they are pulling from Black voters who might otherwise support Lightfoot.

Do you expect we’ll know the winner by the end of the evening tonight?

We know it’s statistically impossible for one person to get the 50 percent needed to win the race outright. Even [former Mayor] Rahm Emanuel went into a runoff eight years ago and there were only four candidates. Now we have nine.

The thinking is that Paul Vallas will come out on top, maybe even in the high 20 percent range, and the second-place finisher is the big question: It could be Lightfoot or Johnson. If at the end of the night, the difference is a whole percentage point, that could be enough to determine who gets in the runoff. But if it’s a mere .25 percent, then the counting continues and the second place finisher will be determined in the next few days. Which means more parlor games.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at [email protected]. Or contact tonight’s author at [email protected] or on Twitter at @calder_mchugh.

— Supreme Court appears skeptical of Biden’s student debt relief plan: President Joe Biden’s plan to forgive student loan debt for tens of millions of Americans seems to be in danger based on oral arguments at the Supreme Court earlier today. A majority of justices appeared dubious about the Biden administration’s pandemic-related legal justification for the sweeping debt relief program, which offered up to $20,000 of loan forgiveness per borrower.

— China bills sail through House committee: A desire to restrain China united Republicans and Democrats on the House Financial Services Committee today, with lawmakers approving a series of bipartisan bills designed to rein in the country’s economic power. The committee approved 10 bills with broad support, including measures that would have the U.S. government scrutinize financial institutions that serve senior Chinese officials, target Chinese manufacturing of synthetic drugs, and commission a Treasury Department report on the global economic risks associated with China’s financial sector.

— Biden to tap Julie Su as next Labor secretary: Biden announced this afternoon that he would nominate Julie Su to be his next Labor secretary, moving swiftly to fill a coming vacancy within his cabinet. Su is currently the deputy Labor secretary and will be nominated to replace Marty Walsh, who is departing the administration to run the professional hockey players’ union. Su’s confirmation fight could be a tough one in the Senate; she was confirmed 50-47 to her slot in 2021 with no Republican support.

TRUMP’S GRIP — Chris Sununu, the New Hampshire governor and potential presidential candidate who once joked that former President Donald Trump is “fucking crazy,” backpedaled and pledged recently to support Trump if he’s the nominee in 2024.

Nikki Haley, offered a similar chance to distance herself from the former president, insisted she doesn’t “focus” on him. Vivek Ramaswamy, the anti-woke entrepreneur and most recent entrant into the race, went so far as to say he’s “not running against President Trump” at all.

He is, of course. Every candidate in the emerging GOP field will be, writes David Siders and Meridith McGraw.

Despite his difficulties since he left office, about a third of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters still consider themselves supporters more of Trump than the Republican Party, according to a recent poll.

Over one-quarter of Republican primary voters — 28 percent — are so devoted to the former president that they said they’d support him even if he ran as an independent, according to a national survey last month from The Bulwark and longtime Republican pollster Whit Ayres.

While Ronna McDaniel, chair of the Republican National Committee, said Sunday that participants in the party’s first primary debate this summer will have to sign a pledge to support the eventual nominee, Trump has balked at that idea.

But Trump wouldn’t even have to run as an independent to inflict damage. He could do it from the sidelines, baselessly casting doubt on the legitimacy of elections, as he did in the Georgia Senate runoff following his loss in 2020, depressing Republican turnout.

SUNUNU’S MESSAGE TO DEMS — The New Hampshire governor and prospective 2024 hopeful also offered his unvarnished opinion today on the new Democratic primary election calendar, which knocks his state from its cherished first-in-the-nation perch.

Asked for his thoughts about the Democrats’ move to place South Carolina first among the early voting states, Sununu didn’t hold back in an appearance on SiriusXM’s “The Briefing with Steve Scully.”

“Can I say they can go suck it? Is that appropriate? On SiriusXM can a governor say that? Yeah. No, it ain’t happening, Joe. Joe Biden has really screwed himself over big. So two things. Number one, New Hampshire’s going first no matter what because we have our own laws, we have our own rules, and we don’t give a flip about what the Democrat Party wants to do.”

Sununu also indicated a summer timeline for his own decision on whether to run for president. “Yeah, people are saying I should run,” the governor told Scully. “Now, we’ll see if that really happens. I very well may do it because I just don’t see certain things lining up for the Republican party to make sure, not just winning the nomination, winning in November, winning in November is all that matters.”

SPOILSPORT — Hungary’s reputation as the troublemaker of Europe will be burnished on Wednesday as its parliament begins debating a contentious issue: whether to give Finland and Sweden the green light to join NATO, writes Suzanne Lynch.

Along with Turkey, Hungary has yet to ratify the applications of Finland and Sweden to join the transatlantic defense alliance more than eight months after NATO leaders signed off on their membership bid at a summit in Madrid.

While NATO members are more concerned about the potential of Turkey to stonewall accession for the Nordic countries — President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been blocking Sweden’s application, alleging that Stockholm is harboring Kurdish militants — the government of Viktor Orbán has also been dragging its heels on parliamentary approval for the process.

Máté Kocsis, head of Orbán’s nationalist Fidesz party caucus in parliament, said last week that a “serious debate” had now emerged over the accession of the two countries. Hungary now plans to send a delegation to Sweden and Finland to examine “political disputes” that have arisen.

Orbán himself echoed such views. The Hungarian leader, who has an iron grip on his Fidesz party, said in an interview on Friday that “while we support Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO in principle, we first need to have some serious discussions.”

Finland and Sweden have been among the most critical voices around the EU table over rule-of-law concerns in Hungary, with Budapest still locked in a dispute with the European Union over the disbursal of funds due to Brussels’ protests over its democratic standards.

THE KIDS ARE NOT ALRIGHT — Over the last 10 years, humanities departments around the world have faced precipitous drops in enrollment. In the last decade, the number of students who study English at the collegiate level in the United States has fallen by roughly one-third. Similar problems of falling enrollment exist in history, philosophy, women’s studies and other majors. The trend is mirrored globally — four-fifths of countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation reported declining humanities enrollments and the pattern persists during periods of economic growth and decline. The investigation from Nathan Heller, tracks the decline, revealing how a combination of declining funding for social sciences, the rise of social media and the increasing financial burden of a college degree, have each played a role in the metamorphosis of English programs across the country. Read the full report — “The End of the English Major” — in The New Yorker.