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President Joe Biden may soon bear witness to an economic miracle. Inflation has slowed and Wall Street is bullish about the chances of the U.S. avoiding a recession next year despite the Federal Reserve’s record rate hikes.

But achieving a so-called soft landing might not mean a lick to voters.

When it comes to Biden and the economy, it’s possible that “people have just rendered a judgment and are not revisiting the judgment,” said James Carville, the Democratic campaign guru who made “it’s the economy, stupid” the unofficial motto of Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign.

Low unemployment, real wage growth and a fast-growing economy should be providing a boost to the public’s perception of Biden’s economic policies. It hasn’t, as countless polls demonstrate. But with inflation still climbing — albeit at a much slower rate than last year — affordability remains a top concern for voters. And that’s been enough to keep Biden’s polls on economic policy deeply underwater.

The result: “People’s attitudes about the economy are pretty stubbornly in the wrong place” for the president, Carville told MM.

Those attitudes won’t change if other gauges that typically define the political economy — payrolls, GDP growth and consumption — deteriorate. All three have remained healthy even as the Consumer Price Index cratered from more than 9 percent last year to a little more than 3 percent as of October.

The Commerce Department will report the personal consumption expenditures for October on Thursday morning. Some economic models have forecast that a slowdown in growth could eat away at the president’s share of the vote in 2024.

White House officials say they’re hopeful the economy will continue to expand even as inflation falls closer to the Fed’s 2 percent target — National Economic Council Director Lael Brainard notes that inflation averaged about 2.9 percent in the two decades prior to the pandemic — and workers feel the effects of wages rising faster than price increases.

“If the question is whether this White House — or the American people — would welcome continued falling inflation accompanied by continued strength in the labor market, the answer is unambiguously yes,” White House spokesperson Michael Kikukawa said. “While some forecasters once predicted a 100% chance of recession, President Biden’s policies are now being credited with helping prevent such a downturn as inflation has fallen.”

Another boost could come if the Fed cuts rates next year. One White House official who was granted anonymity to speak frankly observed that markets have increasingly priced in rate cuts, which would bring down mortgage rates and reduce borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.

The economic indicators that determine a “soft landing” matter less than how people actually experience the economy, another White House official told MM. If prices climb at a level that feels normal, the public’s concerns about the state of the economy should ease.

But that’s also why inflation has been so hard for Biden to shake — even with the greater likelihood of a soft landing.

“On the inflation front, at this point, I think the die has already been cast,” Alec Phillips, the chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs, said in an interview. “There’s probably not that much of a difference between, 2.5 percent inflation and 3.5 percent inflation from a political perspective.”

IT’S WEDNESDAY — Your Morning Money host will be at the DealBook Summit in New York today. Drop a line if you want to meet up around the coffee bar. And as always, send tips, gossip and suggestions to Sam at [email protected] and Zach at [email protected]

The first revision of third-quarter GDP is out at 8:30 a.m. … The Supreme Court will hear arguments on Securities and Exchange Commission v. Jarkesy at 10 a.m. … CFPB Director Rohit Chopra testifies at House Financial Services at 10 a.m. … Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will be interviewed on CNBC at 10 a.m. … Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will deliver a keynote on banking sector turmoil at 1:45 p.m. … The SEC’s Small Business Advisory Committee meets at 10 a.m. … The Fed’s Beige Book is out at 2 p.m.

Crypto scramble — Busy day on the crypto front. Senate Banking Chair Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) told reporters on Tuesday that House Financial Service Chair Patrick McHenry is holding up finance provisions in the annual defense bill, Eleanor Mueller reports.

— McHenry, a North Carolina Republican, has been pushing for legislation to overhaul how market regulators oversee crypto markets. Those efforts have been resisted by crypto-skeptic progressives like Brown and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). Watchdog groups like Better Markets have been critical as well, arguing that the tailored crypto law would be akin to a “bailout for an industry that is dying on its own merits.”

— As lawmakers jockey over crypto, Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo has gotten in the mix. Your host scoped a letter and term sheet sent to Brown, McHenry along with ranking members Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) in which Adeyemo requested legislation that would grant Treasury new power to go after crypto marketplaces used by illicit actors. Treasury’s ask includes updating the Bank Secrecy Act to subject decentralized platforms to anti-money laundering rules and give the Office of Foreign Assets Control jurisdiction over dollar-denominated stablecoins.

Outbound — The House Foreign Affairs Committee will mark up a bill this morning that would expand restrictions on outbound U.S. investments in emerging technologies in China and other adversaries. The legislation, which is expected to advance with bipartisan support, is setting up a clash with House Financial Services Republicans who’ve sought a sanctions-based approach, Jasper Goodman reports.

It’s the latest issue that’s making this year’s defense spending bill the biggest hotbed for financial services policy in Congress. House Foreign Affairs Chair Michael McCaul said in an interview Tuesday that he is negotiating with Financial Services Republicans to identify a compromise between his legislation and a separate proposal introduced by Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) to attach to the defense bill. Barr has argued that the Foreign Affairs proposal could “diminish American competitiveness.”

Basel III — Federal Reserve board member Chris Waller on Tuesday suggested that he could support a final version of a rule that would raise capital requirements on big banks if there are changes to sections affecting operational risk, POLITICO’s Victoria Guida reports.

More FDIC fallout — Jasper also reports that the FDIC’s inspector general will launch two inquiries regarding workplace misconduct, with a focus on the “leadership climate at the FDIC with regard to all forms of harassment and inappropriate behavior.”

Speaking of confusing vibes — Here’s what Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told Marketplace’s Kai Ryssdal: “We just had GDP growth that was close to 5%. In our business contacts at Chicago Fed, we talked to hundreds of business people around the district. Virtually no one was saying, ‘Wow, this is a 5% growth economy that we’re experiencing right now.’ And so that’s, that remains a bit of a puzzle.”

— The NYT’s Talmon Joseph Smith and Joe Rennison: “Corporate America Has Dodged the Damage of High Rates. For Now.”

Rest in Peace, Charlie Munger — Warren Buffett’s longtime right hand at Berkshire Hathaway died at the age of 99 on Tuesday. From WSJ’s Jason Zweig and Justin Baer: “In public, especially in front of the tens of thousands of attendees at Berkshire’s annual meetings, Munger deferred to Buffett, letting the company’s chairman hog the microphone and the limelight. Munger routinely cracked up the crowd by croaking, ‘I have nothing to add.’ In private, Buffett often deferred to Munger.”

Christopher Hadad has been promoted to be legislative director for Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-N.J.). He most recently was his economic policy adviser. — Daniel Lippman

Janice Starzyk is now deputy director of the Office of Space Commerce at the Commerce Department. She most recently was principal at Starzyk.Space LLC. — Lippman

Carolina Ferrerosa Young is now chief economic adviser to Vice President Kamala Harris. She most recently was economic policy adviser for Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio). — Lippman