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With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team

TICK TOCK: The government will shut down in three days if Congress can’t pass a funding patch.

FURLOUGH, SWEET CHARIOT

If you’re a federal worker who doesn’t know what the future holds, we’re here to tell you: Your duly elected Congress doesn’t know what the future holds, either.

But this much is clear: Lawmakers are racing toward a shutdown, and it’s becoming harder by the minute to see how they can find their way to any of the potential off-ramps.

Here’s an up-to-the-minute guide to some scenarios that could avoid a Sunday shutdown — and why they aren’t happening:

— The Senate jams the House. The first part of this plan is straightforward enough: The Senate has already taken lopsided procedural votes to advance a clean-ish 45-day continuing resolution. The House could take that stopgap and pass it into law on a similarly overwhelming bipartisan vote, avoiding a shutdown. Easy peasy.

Why it’s not happening: For starters, there’s no time. Because there isn’t unanimous consent to speed up the timeline in the Senate, as Burgess laid out, the earliest the CR could pass the chamber is Sunday — after the shutdown is already underway. As for the House, Speaker Kevin McCarthy has promised his conference’s right flank he won’t put a clean CR on the floor in any case, lest he put his gavel at risk.

— The House jams the Senate. In the reverse scenario, the House manages to go first — sending a conservative 30-day, GOP-only CR over to the Senate. Rather than risk being seen as responsible for a shutdown, Senate Democrats capitulate and agree to fast-track the Halloween punt.

Why it’s not happening: Where even to begin. McCarthy has found it thus far impossible to unite his conference behind a CR of any length, and his latest plan — to advance a conservative stopgap tomorrow — is in serious jeopardy after the House Freedom Caucus threatened today to vote against it absent a broader appropriations plan. The Senate, meanwhile, is showing zero indications they’re buying what the House would be selling — across-the-board spending cuts, zeroed-out Ukraine aid and major border policy changes.

— The House GOP moderates revolt. We’ve toyed with this scenario several times in Huddle this week, where centrist Republicans join with Democrats to hijack the House floor and pass a clean CR using rarely used procedural feints, such as a discharge petition or defeating the previous question. That would get around McCarthy’s reluctance to put a bipartisan stopgap on the floor.

Why it’s not happening: There’s not near enough pressure right now to compel the moderates, even those in the toughest districts, to break ranks with McCarthy. As we noted yesterday, lawmakers on both sides say these deals are made under major duress — and that likely means being in a shutdown not three days away from a shutdown.

— The Senate dealmakers go to work. There have been real bipartisan they-said-it-couldn’t-be-done moments in Congress in recent memory, from an infrastructure deal to a gun control bill. All have been the work of cross-aisle Senate gangs, and one appears to be coming together now to discuss a potential deal on border funding — meeting, in fact, as this edition of Huddle hits your inbox.

Why it’s not happening: For one, there are real doubts over how a border deal would be greeted by House Republicans, who want much more than a few billion dollars, and Senate Democrats, who have been pushing for a clean stopgap. For another, the clock is ticking, and this gang knows it: We overheard four of those involved — Sens. John Thune (R-S.D.), Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), Todd Young (R-Ind.) and John Cornyn (R-Texas) — discussing on the Senate floor what they’ll need to do if they manage to get a deal. Getting it attached to the pending CR will require unanimous consent, which means starting to talk to more conservative senators.

THE BOTTOM LINE: A shutdown is coming. Have you asked your boss yet if you’re an essential worker?

— Daniella Diaz, with an assist from Burgess Everett

GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Thursday, Sept. 28, where we send thoughts and prayers to everyone sticking around for late-night House votes.

SENATE DEMS NOT READY TO EXPEL MENENDEZ

After Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) addressed the Democratic caucus on Thursday about his new bribery indictment, most Democratic senators didn’t have much to say as they filed out of the Mansfield Room this afternoon.

But Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.), who didn’t attend the meeting, said afterward that he’d be open to backing Menendez’s expulsion “if that is a viable path,” since Menendez is refusing to step down.

“Whatever kinds of procedures” could bring about “getting rid of him, I’m all for it,” Fetterman said. Asked directly if he would support an expulsion resolution should one come to the floor, Fetterman said he would, though he did not commit to introducing a resolution himself.

A quick survey of Democratic senators at afternoon votes Thursday – including Sens. Mazie Hirono (Hawaii), Mark Kelly (Ariz.), Chris Murphy (Conn.) and Bob Casey (Pa.) — revealed that they are standing by their decisions to call on Menendez to resign but aren’t ready to go beyond that.

“Other senators may think that other measures are warranted,” said Murphy, who’s called on Menendez to resign. “I’ve made clear what I think the proper step is.”

While Menendez again made clear in today’s lunch he doesn’t plan to resign, he continued to leave unanswered whether he intends to run for re-election next year.

— Ursula Perano and Daniella Diaz

REPUBLICANS MOVE BILL TO PROTECT TRUMP

House Republicans’ first impeachment inquiry hearing, held by the Oversight and Accountability Committee, grabbed today’s headlines. Meanwhile, another significant presidency-related issue moved forward in the Judiciary Committee, where Republicans signed off on legislation spawned by former President Donald Trump’s legal battles.

On an 18-15 party-line vote, the panel advanced a bill from Rep. Russell Fry (R-S.C.) that would allow any current or former president or vice president to bump cases filed against them in state court into federal court. The bill was initially sparked by Trump’s indictment by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg.

Republicans’ have used their majority frequently to act as Trump’s unofficial defense team, but that’s usually only been in rhetoric only. The bill’s advancement, notably, comes as a push to expunge Trump’s two impeachments has stalled.

ICYMI on the impeachment front: Oversight Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) announced at the end of his hearing that he will issue subpoenas today targeting records from Hunter and James Biden, the president’s son and brother.

— Jordain Carney

News you can use: If you have a Capitol Hill badge, you can get your Covid-19 booster and/or flu shot starting Oct. 2 at the Attending Physician’s office — which will be open during a shutdown — on a walk-in basis weekdays from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m.

Also for fellow reporters: In case of a shutdown, Senate press galleries will only have their directors and deputy directors at work — which means more press (including lots of non-regulars who don’t know the rules) and fewer eyes on them.

Live footage of your Huddle host purchasing a $15 salad earlier today.

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) r eleased his report card of McCarthy.

QUICK LINKS

Will a shutdown affect my flight? What to know about air travel if Congress doesn’t act, from Zach Wichter at USA Today

U.S. government starts notifying federal employees a shutdown may be imminent, from Tony Romm, Lisa Rein and Mariana Alfaro at The Washington Post

TRANSITIONS

Martha Newell has been promoted to be legislative director for Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska).

Ana Rosa Quintana is now senior policy director at the Vandenberg Coalition. She previously was staff director for Western Hemisphere for House Foreign Affairs Chair Michael McCaul (R-Texas).

Ellen Ray is now chief of staff for Rep. Delia Ramirez (D-Ill.). She most recently was chief program officer at Chicago Cares.

Lauren Lombardo has been promoted to be deputy policy director for the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability.

TOMORROW IN CONGRESS

The House is in session.

The Senate is in session.

FRIDAY AROUND THE HILL

*crickets*

WEDNESDAY’S ANSWER: Albert Wolf correctly answered that Benjamin Civiletti was the attorney general who authored two opinions that interpreted the Anti-Deficiency Act in a way that has led to the modern era of government shutdowns.

TODAY’S QUESTION: “Shut down” is the name of a hit single by which girl group?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answers to [email protected].

GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each evening.

Follow Daniella on X at @DaniellaMicaela.