Who will be president if everyone dies tonight?
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When President JOE BIDEN takes the podium tonight for his State of the Union address, all members of his Cabinet will likely be in attendance, save one.
Each year, the president designates a “survivor” to stay away from the Capitol in case disaster strikes. For those who’ve served in the role, it’s a weird designation: entrusted to run the government but also not among the clique invited to watch the big speech in person.
Regardless, former Homeland Security Secretary JEH JOHNSON — one of the few government officials selected for the role, twice — said serving as the designated survivor is nothing like the TV show.
After watching one episode of KIEFER SUTHERLAND cast as a Cabinet secretary who ascends to the presidency after an explosion kills everyone ahead of him in the line of succession (we promise, we’re not giving anything away), “I realized that it had no resemblance to reality and then stopped watching it,” Johnson said.
For starters, Sutherland’s character, Tom Kirkman, is given only a 24-hours heads up that he’s the designated survivor (in reality, selectees are notified about a week beforehand). Once in a secure location, he uses a personal phone to talk to his daughter (cell phones are not allowed, according to Johnson). And Kirkman appears to eat part of a sad looking salad for dinner, which does not track with Johnson’s recollection of eating “a pretty good” meal as compensation for not being at the president’s speech.
The practice of one Cabinet official skipping large in-person events dates back to the early 1960s and perhaps much earlier, according to the Senate Historical Office. But it wasn’t until the 1980s that the White House started to publicly announce the names of officials selected to skip the State of the Union address and presidential inaugurations.
The process of selecting a designated survivor has varied over time, but typically the White House picks a Cabinet member whose policy portfolio may have prepared them to run the country in the event of a catastrophe. Former Attorney General ALBERTO GONZALES, the designated survivor in 2007, said that the Bush administration always leaned toward “someone who had some familiarity with things going on in foreign affairs so it wouldn’t all be brand new.”
Sometimes other factors can be at play, like whether it would be best for a Cabinet member to be at the Capitol, ready for TV cameras to cut to a quick shot of them, especially if their department’s policy initiatives are highlighted in the president’s speech. “I remember years where education would be a big deal in the speech and therefore Arne Duncan, who was the education secretary at the time, could not be the designated survivor,” JON FAVREAU, President BARACK OBAMA’s former speechwriter, said in a 2016 interview with The Ringer.
Former Cabinet members say that while there’s a lot of public interest in the designated survivor (thanks in large part to the TV show), it can be disappointing to miss out on the State of the Union. But being picked to uphold the line of succession can also serve as a moment to reflect on one's leadership.
“I think everyone who is in that position, at least I hope that at some point fairly early in the evening, they come to a realization of the really serious possibility that they become president of the United States. And that’s a pretty weighty thing to confront,” said Gonzales, who spent his few hours as designated survivor flying around in a government airplane. Officials from different agencies accompanied him, along with binders of protocols and classified procedures to assist him should he have to step into the presidency.
For designated survivors, the news coverage of your selection is not always the best confidence booster.
Johnson said he remembers watching MSNBC’s CHRIS MATTHEWS inform viewers that he was the designated survivor. “He said, ‘And that makes sense, because no presidency named Johnson begins well.’”
Johnson also recognized that as the secretary of Homeland Security, he would have gotten a lot of the blame if something bad had happened during Obama’s address. That’s been especially true since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. Prior to then, designated survivors could just hang out with their friends rather than wait the speech out in a government plane or an undisclosed location.
Former Commerce Secretary BILL DALEY, the designated survivor in 1998, told West Wing Playbook that he enjoyed an early dinner with his brother at The Palm restaurant in D.C. before going to a friend’s house to watch President BILL CLINTON’s speech.
As soon as Clinton was safely back at the White House, the Secret Service agents who were glued to Daley all day quickly dispersed, leaving him without a way home.
“I was like, ‘How about a ride?’” Daley recalled. “There wasn’t Uber then, so one of my friends gave me a ride back home.”
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This one is from Allie. Which president’s State of the Union address was the first to be televised?
(Answer at the bottom.)
MEETINGS AND CALLS — AND LIVE HITS!: In the quiet hours ahead of the State of the Union address, the White House flooded the zone with Zoom calls, offering reporters, lawmakers and supportive outside groups a preview of the president’s speech. And by “preview,” we mean just enough quotes and nuggets for reporters to write their walk-up pieces and surrogates to download the talking points.
ANITA DUNN had a very busy afternoon, and first gentleman DOUGLAS EMHOFF joined at least one call with Democratic allies, two sources on the call confirmed. Meanwhile, the press shop and other senior officials blanketed the cable news airwaves. West Wing Playbook obtained this rundown from an administration official of who did what:
ANCHORS AWEIGH: Biden also held the traditional off-the-record lunch with TV anchors and other media personalities Tuesday at the White House ahead of his State of the Union address. Guests included CBS’ NORAH O’DONNELL, NBC’s SAVANNAH GUTHRIE, MSNBC’s JONATHAN CAPEHART and PBS’ AMNA NAWAZ.
GAME TIME: Get ready for Tuesday’s address with this quiz from WaPo’s DAN KEATING, HANNAH DORMIDO and NICK MOURTOUPALAS about which president introduced what words or phrases in their respective State of the Union speeches.
JUST HIT SEND AND CALL IT A DAY …: Our JACK SHAFER writes in POLITICO Magazine that the SOTU tradition should be scrapped altogether. The address, he writes, “isn’t completely useless, as I argued here eight years ago. It can help a president shape and present his agenda to Congress and the public. But a well-written email or PowerPoint demonstration could probably do an equal job of organizing and explaining an administration’s ambitions for the coming year.”
WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS YOU TO READ: This story by Bloomberg’s BILLY HOUSE and JARRELL DILLARD about how voters are feeling about Republicans’ investigation into matters related to the president’s son, HUNTER BIDEN: “Polling released last week by the Pew Research Center showed that as clashes over the debt ceiling and other key issues intensify, 65 percent of American adults surveyed said they are concerned Republicans would focus too much on investigating the Biden administration.”
WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE DOESN’T WANT YOU TO READ: This NYT opinion column by MICHELLE GOLDBERG about how Biden shouldn’t run for reelection: “It’s hard to ignore the toll of Biden’s years, no matter how hard elected Democrats try. In some ways, the more sympathetic you are to Biden, the harder it can be to watch him stumble over his words, a tendency that can’t be entirely explained by his stutter.”
MORE MANCHIN DRAMA: Everyone’s favorite West Virginia senator did absolutely nothing to quiet speculation about him running for president in 2024. During a Zoom interview with Semafor’s STEVE CLEMONS, CBS’ ROBERT COSTA asked Sen. JOE MANCHIN about “sources close to the No Labels movement” who’d like him to mount an independent bid. “The only thing I'm considering is what can I do to bring the country together,” the Democratic senator said. “I don't know what the next chapter will be.”
Manchin is in cycle but has yet to announce whether he’ll seek another term. “I feel like most Americans, we've got to come together. Americans want to be united,” he said. “They want to be together and right now they’re further apart.”
RUNNIN LOW ON DUNKIN: Labor Secretary MARTY WALSH is leaving the administration to run the National Hockey League’s Players Association, our LISA KASHINSKY, ELEANOR MUELLER and NICK NIEDZWIADEK report. The move makes the former Massachusetts labor boss the first member of Biden’s traditional Cabinet to depart.
MAYORKAS IN THE HOT SEAT: Though Homeland Security Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS has maintained he’ll stay in his post, the House GOP’s hearings on the border crisis — part of a larger attempt to oust Mayorkas — are just beginning, NYT’s EILEEN SULLIVAN and ZOLAN KANNO-YOUNGS report.
FROM THE ARCHIVES: We told you in a memorable 2021 edition of West Wing Playbook about the burgeoning relationship between Vice President KAMALA HARRIS and former Mastercard CEO AJAY BANGA. At Monday’s launch event for the Central America Forward initiative, Harris profusely thanked Banga, a co-chair of the Partnership for Central America, for “[putting] all that you have, in terms of your skill, your experience, and your resources, into allowing this to be as productive as it’s been thus far.”
Banga, who spoke after Harris, thanked her for leading the initiative, which has raised $4 billion in private investment in the three “Northern Triangle” countries to expand digital access, technical training and create jobs in Central America to address the root causes of migration.
THANKS, JEROME: Fed Reserve Chair JEROME POWELL said Tuesday the recent boost in hiring could mean a longer battle ahead to lower inflation. Powell said the latest jobs report was “certainly strong — stronger than anyone I know expected. … It kind of shows you why we think this will be a process that takes a significant period of time.” WSJ’s NICK TIMIRAOS has more.
STILL FEELING BLUE: We noted last week that Biden is reluctant to call on Senate Democrats to jettison the use of blue slips, which requires a judicial nominee’s two home-state senators to sign off on his or her nomination. Well, Biden isn’t the only one. DICK DURBIN, the chair of the Senate Judiciary committee, said Tuesday that he wanted to continue the blue slip practice, but with a caveat: “I won’t honor a blue slip that I believe discriminates because of race, gender, or sexual discrimination.”
BEFORE THE BALLOON BURST: Trade between the U.S. and China reached an all-time high in 2022, hitting a new record of $690 billion, according to new numbers released by the Commerce Department. These numbers come just after China’s spy balloon was shot down and relations between the two countries appear to be rocky, our DOUG PALMER writes.
Biden’s 2022 State of the Union report card: Where he delivered — and fell flat (POLITICO’s Myah Ward)
White House aides keep trying to torch the State of the Union address. Presidents keep getting in the way. (NBC’s Peter Nicholas)
Intruder breaches base of Air Force One, shot fired (AP’s Tara Copp)
HARRY TRUMAN’s State of the Union speech on Jan. 6, 1947 was the first to be shown on television, according to the House’s History, Art and Archives website.
A CALL OUT — Do you think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best one about the presidents with a citation and we may feature it.
Edited by Eun Kyung Kim and Sam Stein.
Source: https://www.politico.com/