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ORIGIN STORY — When Donald Trump takes the stage in Davenport, Iowa, tonight, comparisons to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will be impossible to avoid. They’re the two frontrunners in the Republican presidential primary, after all, and DeSantis had just dropped into Iowa three days earlier.

For the first-in-the-nation caucus state, it’s the first good, back-to-back look at them. But it’s not likely to be a fair fight, as Iowa Republicans know better than most.

It was in Iowa, way back in 2016, that Trump first introduced the Republican Party to election denialism, demanding a do-over and baselessly claiming Sen. Ted Cruz “stole” the election when Cruz finished ahead of Trump in the caucuses.

It was an outrageous claim and, in retrospect, a dangerous one. But it didn’t hurt Trump one bit as the primary moved on. Now, seven years later, in his first appearance in Iowa since announcing his 2024 campaign, he will be bringing his grievance politics full circle. His speech comes not only against the backdrop of Tucker Carlson’s recent re-litigation of the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol on Fox News, but also a potential indictment in New York, which Trump has said — probably accurately — might only “enhance my numbers.”

Just think of the crowd he’ll draw. In Iowa, the percentage of Republicans who say they will “definitely” vote for him if he’s the nominee next year is down significantly, according to a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll released the other day. But his favorability rating among Republicans in the state still stands at 80 percent, slightly higher than the 75 percent of Republicans with a very or mostly favorable view of DeSantis.

And that’s even after Trump threw evangelicals — a major part of the GOP electorate in Iowa — under the bus following a disappointing midterm election last year, blaming focus on the “abortion issue” for losses after the overturning of Roe v. Wade.

DeSantis may pick up steam. By all accounts, he received a warm reception in Iowa.

But what if DeSantis does catch up to Trump? The big fear of Republicans is not that Trump will lose the nomination and run as an independent. (There are all sorts of hurdles to that, from ballot access deadlines to “sore-loser” laws in some states.) The real concern, if he falls short, is that Trump will simply claim as he did in Iowa in 2016 — and, falsely, after the presidential election in 2020 — that the results were rigged, depressing general election turnout among the sizable “Always Trump” component of the GOP.

Republicans saw the disastrous consequences of that kind of scenario in Senate runoff elections in Georgia following Trump’s defeat in 2020. But the seeds of Trump’s undermining of rank-and-file GOPers’ confidence in elections, of course, were planted in Iowa in 2016. For Trump, who has rested his political career on a shared sense of victimization — from Democrats, from the media, from traditionalist Republicans — the appearance tonight is less an opportunity to match up with DeSantis than a return to the scene of the original indignation.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at [email protected]. Or contact tonight’s author at [email protected] or on Twitter at @davidsiders.

— Biden promises ‘your deposits will be there’ amid banks’ collapse: President Joe Biden attempted to assuage nationwide worries about Silicon Valley Bank’s downfall late last week, promising that taxpayers would not bear the brunt of the largest economic collapse in the U.S. since the 2008 financial crisis. The president’s remarks come on the heels of a chaotic weekend in which U.S. regulators worked to find a buyer for the bank, which held more than $200 billion in assets mostly for tech startups and venture capital firms. Federal regulators scrambled to close Silicon Valley Bank when it experienced a bank run late last week.

— Republicans release top targets of Democratic-held House seats in 2024: The National Republican Congressional Committee will target 37 Democratic seats — sending the message that they are looking to expand their majority in 2024, rather than play defense. The target list, which was shared first with POLITICO, includes 35 incumbents and two open seats that are currently held by Reps. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) and Katie Porter (D-Calif.) who are both retiring to run for Senate. Several of the targets include members who won last cycle with less than 1 percentage point.

— Biden administration approves controversial Alaskan oil project: The Biden administration approved the massive Willow oil project in Alaska on Monday, rejecting pleas from environmental groups and some nearby tribal communities to block the development they fear will threaten the pristine wilderness and undermine the president’s promises to fight climate change. The decision, which had been expected since last week, allows ConocoPhillips to develop three drilling sites at its proposed Willow project on federal land in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, according to the Interior Department’s official record of decision.

ALL ABOUT TRUMP — As the script for the earliest stages of the 2024 primary unfolds, it’s clear that Trump remains the axis around which it all turns. Republican voters tell pollsters they are willing to look elsewhere, but recent developments have kept the party fixated on him and the scandals that defined his time and office.

PENCE ON OFFENSE — At Washington’s Gridiron dinner over the weekend, former Vice President Mike Pence broke from Trump more sharply than any candidate in the GOP field so far. Pence world has long believed that the former congressman and Indiana governor could occupy the adult-in-a-room 2024 lane, in that he is uniquely positioned to speak truth to power now that he is free of the constraints of the vice presidency.

PENSION PROBLEMS — The French Senate voted in favor of the controversial pension reform last week, paving the way for a potential final adoption of the law, as thousands of people continue to demonstrate across the country, writes POLITICO’s Sarah Anne Aarup.

The widespread opposition to the retirement overhaul is a political test for French President Emmanuel Macron, whose liberal party has been struggling to pass the reform ever since it lost its majority in parliament last summer.

The French government wants to change the retirement age from 62 to 64, with a full pension requiring 43 years of work as of 2027. The right-leaning Senate adopted the reform with 195 in favor and 112 against the measure.

Hundreds of thousands of people demonstrated across France, and protests continued over the weekend, as various unions called for rolling stoppages to keep the pressure on the Senate to revise the reforms. So far, strikes have disrupted sectors including public transport, oil refineries, schools and airports.

During his presidential campaign, Macron vowed to reform the French pension system to bring it in line with other European countries like Spain and Germany, where the retirement age is 65 to 67 years old.

WATER WARS — An upcoming Supreme Court case — the Court will hear oral arguments on March 20 — is pitting the Navajo Nation against three states and the federal government. It’s the Court’s latest foray into byzantine regulations that deal with both Native treaty rights and water rights. The fight is over an 1868 treaty, but has distinct modern-day implications. If the Court rules in favor of the Navajo Nation, the government will not only owe the Navajo Nation rights to parts of the Colorado River, it could open the door for similar cases around water rights up and down rivers across the United States. Matt Ford reports for The New Republic.