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WE’RE GOING STRAIGHT TO THE WILD, WILD WEST —  Weird thing about the speaker vote on Jan. 3 — it will essentially function in a House without rules.

The speakership election happens before the House sets the rules for the 118th Congress, meaning the vote operates outside of the chamber’s standard operating procedures. When a speaker candidate is elected on the first ballot without too much drama, that’s not a big deal.

But Jan. 3, 2023 could have a lot of drama, and many members doubt it will all be settled on the first ballot.

GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) at this point doesn’t have all the votes he’d need to clinch the gavel. Let’s say, after the prayer is offered, the Pledge of Allegiance said and the roll called, that McCarthy (or any challenger) fails to reach the necessary majority threshold. There’s a few things that could happen next:

First: The clerk can theoretically repeat the roll call voice vote until someone gets a majority. That’ll suck up some time, but don’t expect sessions to get drawn out late into the night. Matthew Glassman, a senior fellow at the Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown University, told Huddle that historically there’s only been an appetite for three or four votes before members want to get off the floor to wheel and deal.

“These are not marathon sessions,” Glassman said.

Second: Lawmakers could vote on a proposal to change how they elect the speaker, like accepting a plurality winner — a wild departure, though there is precedent from multiple speaker votes in the 1850s — or going by a secret ballot. However, proposals to make other restrictions like dropping candidates with the lowest number of votes or barring new candidates have historically been defeated or tabled.

Third: If Republicans need to regroup before starting a new ballot, maybe hash out a compromise with McCarthy or do some horse trading behind closed doors, there is just one option on the table: adjourn the House. Without House rules in place, the chamber cannot recess subject to the call of the chair. They’d need to adjourn, with a certain day and time for reconvening specified.

The Clerk will call the shots: The Clerk of the House has the authority to make rulings during this period, since there’s no speaker, though the House can appeal and overturn clerk rulings.

We should “expect the clerk to behave in a relatively nonpartisan way,” Glassman said. Clerk Cheryl L. Johnson was sworn in by outgoing Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), but there are not incentives for her or her team of clerks to muddy the waters.

No pause button: During this time, if McCarthy fails on the first ballot, any members-elect can seek recognition and make motions, propose resolutions, move to table items and call for roll call votes or to adjourn. However, efforts to delay the speaker election in favor of other business have been quashed in the past.

And remember: Members who are trying to topple McCarthy are getting familiar with their options, with certain House Freedom Caucus members meeting to talk through the procedure of the Jan. 3 vote with House Parliamentarian Jason Smith (not to be confused with Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.)).

Lots of in-the-know people (rules nerds) who talked to Huddle about these possibilities shared a sentiment that while the never-before-seen procedural moves could be fascinating — the reality could be excruciating.

Procedure is a big piece of this puzzle, but the reality is raw politics: Whether McCarthy can convince his conference members to shift their votes into his column is what will move the needle and ultimately decide the speakership.

Brush up: If you haven’t already dug into CRS’ treasure trove of resources on this, check out Electing the Speaker of the House of Representatives: Frequently Asked Questions, Speakers of the House: Elections, 1913-2021 and The First Day of a New Congress: A Guide to Proceedings on the House Floor

RELATED:Despite Trump’s Lobbying, McCarthy’s Speaker Bid Remains Imperiled on the Right, from Catie Edmondson, Maggie Haberman and Annie Karni at The New York Times

GOOD MORNING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Wednesday, December 14, where that Dec. 24 flight your Host booked is looking like a solid choice.

FOUND: A FUNDING FRAMEWORK— Top appropriators say there’s a path towards a spending deal, but they’ll still need that extra time provided by a one-week continuing resolution. On Tuesday night, retiring Senate Appropriations Chair Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) said appropriators have “reached a bipartisan, bicameral framework that should allow us to finish an omnibus appropriations bill that can pass the House and Senate and be signed into law by the president.”

See you Dec. 23: Retiring Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama, the GOP’s lead negotiator, said, “If all goes well, we should be able to finish an omnibus appropriations package by December 23rd.” House Appropriations Chair Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) said appropriators “will work around the clock” to finish the sprawling government spending package in the coming days.

Trimming the tree: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said earlier Tuesday that the spending package will include an overhaul of the Electoral Count Act, which governs congressional certification of presidential election results along with emergency money for Ukraine. Inclusion of other proposals like an extension of the enhanced Child Tax Credit, are much less certain.

Caitlin and Marianne have the latest on last night’s government funding announcement.

Spending divisions roil Republicans: Key appropriators may be on the same page, but Republicans in each chamber are far from united on the government funding outlook, report Sarah and Burgess. Many see a decision between a deal that would make a smoother path for potential McCarthy to claim the speaker’s gavel or a delay to next spring when Republicans would hold more leverage in the divided Congress.

McCarthy trashed the still-forthcoming deal at a closed door meeting on Tuesday, telling colleagues he would be a “hell no” on any spending agreement. But some Senate Republicans think punting final spending talks into the new year could be too tall an order for the House GOP leader, who will spend the next few weeks whipping votes for his speaker bid and the start of the new Congress organizing his new majority.

“Better not to have that major hurdle that the new speaker, Kevin McCarthy, has to negotiate … it’s too much to ask,” said Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.).

A PICTURE OF PELOSI — No, we’re not talking about the documentary that debuted on HBO last night (though we hear your Huddle host has a cameo.) Pelosi’s official speaker’s portrait will be unveiled this afternoon in Statuary Hall and will join the collection of portraits in the Speaker’s Lobby. Schumer, former Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and others are expected to attend.

Humble service to the hangry House… The House gave a rare bipartisan standing ovation Tuesday for two fixtures of the chamber, Ella Terry and Patricia Smith, better known as Miss Ella and Miss Pat, retiring longtime food managers in the Democratic and Republican cloakrooms.

Miss Ella stood next to Pelosi in the well of the House, hands clasped with the speaker’s, as Pelosi gave a speech honoring her 34 years of service to members of the House. “A warm, caring, steadfast presence, a sunny smile no matter how arduous things may be going on the floor in the cloakroom,” said Pelosi. “With Miss Ella, no one is a stranger.” Now that we all know that Pelosi eats a cloakroom hot dog every day for lunch, the tribute from a regular customer was especially meaningful.

McCarthy acknowledged Miss Pat’s 46 years of service and just how integral she has been to members’ lives on the Hill. He described lawmakers bringing family members or guests to the cloakroom and expecting that they might want a photo with the GOP Leader, only for them to make a bee-line to introduce their visitors to Miss Pat. “You have been the motherly advice, the humble servant, the individual who provided us the food, but also provided us the wisdom when we needed it,” he said. “It’s tough to handle a lot of us, especially when we are hangry,” McCarthy said, to nods of agreement across the chamber.

Signed, sealed, delivered… Check out the new stamp honoring the late Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.). We expect them to sell like hotcakes at the post offices in the Capitol complex.

Union bug… Rep. Linda Sanchez’ (D-Calif.) staff have filed a petition to form a union.

QUICK LINKS 

The 12 Republican Senators Who Voted for the Same-Sex Marriage Law, from Annie Karni at The New York Times

Ralph Norman Only Regrets Misspelling 'Martial' In 'Marshall Law' Text, from Arthur Delaney at HuffPost

Senate Dems prepare to join the investigative fray, from Jordain

TRANSITIONS 

Alexandra Golden will be Sen.-elect Peter Welch’s (D-Vt.) chief of staff. She most recently served as deputy staff director for House Oversight. Tricia Coates, who has worked in Vermont for Welch and is a Leahy alum, will co-lead Welch’s transition to the Senate as a senior advisor.

GOP operative who allegedly kicked a dog hired as top aide to new congressman, from Daniel Lippman

Possibly eyeing statewide run, Sherrill names top Democratic operative as chief of staff, from David Wildstein at The New Jersey Globe

Giannangeli Leganski is now a professional staff member for the House Energy & Commerce Committee under Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.). She was most recently a professional staff member for the House Committee on Small Business under Ranking Member Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-Mo.).

TODAY IN CONGRESS

The House convenes at noon for legislative business and will consider four bills under a rule and a list of suspension bills. Late-ish votes are expected, between 8 p.m. and 10 p.m.

The Senate convenes at 10 a.m. and will take up a joint resolution on charter schools, with a vote expected at noon. The chamber will vote again at 5 p.m.

AROUND THE HILL

10 a.m. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on “Crypto Crash: Why the FTX Bubble Burst and the Harm to Consumers,” featuring testimony from ‘Shark Tank’ investor Kevin O’Leary. (G50 Dirksen)

1 p.m. McCarthy, House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.), House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), Rep. Kay Granger (R-Texas) and other House Republicans hold a news conference. (Studio A)

2 p.m. House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis hearing on “Preparing for and Preventing the Next Public Health Emergency: Lessons Learned from the Coronavirus Crisis.” (2154 Rayburn)

2 p.m. Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Mike Lee (R-Utah), Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.), and Mike Braun (R-Indiana) hold a press conference on federal spending. (Senate Studio)

TUESDAY’S WINNER:Emery Real Bird correctly answered that Ralph Bunche won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1950 for his mediation in the Middle East. Bunche was also involved in the formation of the United Nations.

TODAY’S QUESTION from Emery: Which U.S. Attorney General was also a Commissioner to China?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answers to [email protected]

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Follow Katherine on Twitter @ktullymcmanus