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Let’s assume for a minute that House Republicans fail to coalesce behind a new speaker today.

What would it look like if Acting Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry — the bow-tied linchpin of the GOP conference — had to slam the gavel as more than just a caretaker?

Republicans who have known McHenry for years argue that he’d be inclined to govern — no small thing given GOP dysfunction — and would probably have the skills to do it.

It’s the reason why Wall Street executives took comfort when he was involved in hashing out a debt-limit deal this year. After all, McHenry warned well in advance that it would be a bad idea to take federal borrowing hostage.

McHenry’s stated mission as chair of House Financial Services — a role he sought instead of GOP leadership — has been to find bipartisan deals on policy and get bills signed into law. He’s tried to work closely with Rep. Maxine Waters, the panel’s top Democrat. He even drew criticism from the right earlier this year when he kept diversity and inclusion issues prioritized by Democrats on the Financial Services agenda.

So he’s perceived as a realist and a pragmatist. And that could be a problem when it comes to satisfying hard-liners like Rep. Matt Gaetz.

“He has a worldview that I think would guide things,” a former senior GOP aide said. “But he’s flexible enough to work out deals. He’d be good at it in normal times. Whether the crazies want more of a fighter is a question.”

Beyond banking and crypto policy, where does McHenry stand on the issues?

Our Jasper Goodman reports that McHenry is close to the middle of his party when you look at him through the lens of the DW-NOMINATE ideology score. Per that metric, he’s more conservative than 55 percent of the GOP conference.

McHenry has consistently supported military aid for Ukraine, but he hasn’t been vocal about it. He’s talked about how climate change is real. He’s sidestepped some of the culture war issues that have come to define GOP politics.

But let’s take a cue from McHenry and get real. He’s said repeatedly he doesn’t want to be speaker, and many Republicans take him at his word.

Before last week’s speaker fiasco, lobbyists were bracing for McHenry to announce that he would retire from Congress — and at some point pursue a lucrative career in finance.

“Conventional wisdom at the start of this Congress was McHenry would serve his final two years as chairman and then either retire or become speaker,” said one former Republican leadership staffer. “Nobody actually believed that speaker would be possible.”

McHenry assumed office at 29 and has served for more than 18 years. The assumption that he might soon leave Congress isn’t based on hints he’s floating. It’s more about the professional and personal dynamics ahead of him.

McHenry is term-limited in his Financial Services chairship and can’t keep doing it in the next Congress without a waiver. He has been openly reticent about wrangling conservatives as a member of GOP leadership, as we see today. He faces the demands of having a young family, including three children.

“Everything we have seen from McHenry since he came to Congress suggests that he would rather run his committee than run the House,” said Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at BTIG. “In the committee, he has a chance to dig deep on issues and help shape the debate and the resulting policies. As a speaker with this slim a majority, the next person holding the gavel will just be scrambling to survive.”

But you shouldn’t rule it out. Some GOP lawmakers — including former Speaker Kevin McCarthy — have said McHenry should be granted the full powers of the job until a new speaker is elected.

McHenry spokesperson Laura Peavey told MM: “Congressman McHenry’s responsibility to the conference and the institution is to facilitate the election of the next speaker. That is his focus at the moment.”

Happy Wednesday (it’s not Tuesday!) — Your thoughts on a Speaker McHenry? Let us know: Zach Warmbrodt, Sam Sutton.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen holds her IMF-World Bank press conference in Morocco at 4 a.m. … Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will speak at the Marrakech Economic Festival at 4:15 a.m. … The Producer Price Index for September is out at 8:30 a.m. … White House senior adviser John Podesta will speak at a Brookings Institution event at 9:05 a.m. … Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks at the E2 Summit at 10:15 a.m. … SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw speaks at the Center for American Progress at 12:35 p.m. … The Fed releases minutes from its September meeting at 2 p.m. …

First in MM: Warren warns CFTC on loosening rules — Sen. Elizabeth Warren is urging CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam to halt a proposal that she says would weaken financial market safeguards put in place after the 2008 crisis.

Warren is targeting the CFTC’s plan to rewrite collateral requirements tied to seeded funds and money market funds. She says the agency is “rolling back important Dodd-Frank Act reforms and increasing risks to the stability of our financial system.”

Read her letter here. The CFTC declined to comment.

A soft landing indicator? — Americans may have hundreds of billions of dollars more in extra cash than previously believed, Bloomberg reports. Citigroup senior global economist Robert Sockin estimates that households have about $1 trillion in excess savings.

“It definitely raises the prospects of a soft landing pretty significantly,” Sockin said.

Oil markets shrug off Israel conflict — The FT reports that the Israel-Hamas war’s impact on oil trading has been “muted” so far.

“Right now it’s being viewed as a manageable crisis, not a 1970s-type crisis,” said Dan Pickering, head of Houston’s Pickering Energy Partners.

What Elizabeth Warren is reading — WSJ reports that Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah received large amounts of funds through crypto leading up to this weekend’s attacks in Israel. The news may bolster Warren’s bipartisan effort to ratchet up anti-money laundering rules for digital currency.

“It’s alarming and should be a wakeup call for lawmakers and regulators that digital wallets connected to Hamas received millions of dollars in cryptocurrencies,” Warren told MM. “Crypto is the not-so-secret financial weapon funding terrorist organizations like Hamas, Chinese fentanyl networks and North Korea’s missile program. There is a growing bipartisan coalition of senators pushing to crack down on crypto-financed crimes, and it’s time to act with urgency to ensure law enforcement has the resources and authority to protect innocent people.”

Former exec talks SBF’s political strategy — Caroline Ellison, the one-time CEO of Alameda Research, testified Tuesday that Sam Bankman-Fried believed his approach to political donations offered “very high returns in terms of political influence” at a modest cost, per CoinDesk. Ellison said she committed fraud at the direction of Bankman-Fried, her ex-boyfriend.

The IMF sees more rate risks in banking — The IMF said Tuesday that around 5 percent of the world’s banks are vulnerable to stress if interest rates remain higher for longer, according to Reuters. Another 30 percent of banks, including some of the largest, would be at risk if the global economy experiences low growth and high inflation.