With help from Laurens Cerulus and Daniel Lippman

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WARSAW — NatSec Daily had quite the week in Europe, scurrying around the Munich Security Conference and shuffling among large crowds in Poland to follow President JOE BIDEN’s visit. So we figured, as Alex preps for his flight home, that we’d do a “reporter’s notebook dump” of all the interesting nuggets we heard in the Old World but haven’t conveyed to you yet.

Color from Warsaw: It’s cold and rainy here, the streets wet and parks muddy, and a gray hue has enveloped the city. Road blocks for all the dignitaries these past couple days have caused traffic snarls, particularly during rush hour when the Polish capital comes to a loud standstill. When word of a Biden motorcade gets out, hundreds of people line the city’s main streets to catch a glimpse of the American president and his entourage.

Security is tight outside the downtown Marriott hotel where Biden et al. are staying. Authorities set up a perimeter just outside the skyscraper, requiring even cleared-to-enter people to go through airport-style checks. Alex was able to get into the lobby before that infrastructure was in place. It was crawling with Secret Service standing guard and police with sniffing dogs milling about.

Warsaw’s landmark, the Palace of Culture and Science, has been lit up in the colors of Poland’s flag: white on top and red on the bottom. The bridge across the Vistula River, next to the Royal Palace where Biden gave his big speech, had the blue and yellow of Ukraine’s flag projected on it.

The city during Alex’s stay has not lived up to its reputation as a party town, likely due to the officials in town and the poor weather. But Alex can confirm that Warsaw’s bar scene is still vibrant and that Polish lager is delicious — especially after a long day.

In Munich, the "normalization of tragedy": Homeland Security Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS told a small group of reporters on the sidelines of the Munich gathering that he worries that there could be a “normalization of tragedy” the longer Russia’s invasion of Ukraine goes on.

“If you take a look at how the outrage, in the public's consciousness, of seeing the photographs, understanding the trauma, the loss, the disfiguration of life, in addition to people's lives, physical as well as societal –– have we become inured to it because it has been so prolonged?” he said.

Also, Ukrainians have used cluster munitions: Ukrainian troops have used cluster munitions against Russian forces, Rep. JASON CROW (D-Colo.) told NatSec Daily in Munich.

“I disagree with their use of those systems,” the House Armed Services committee member said. “There's no doubt that using those systems provides an immediate short-term benefit on the battlefield. But the dud rate of those systems is high and they're going to have to be cleaned up, and unexploded ordnance on battlefields is a major problem for civilian populations.”

Turkey has sent cluster bombs to Ukraine, while the Biden administration has repeatedly said it has “concerns” about transferring such weapons to Kyiv.

Since February 2022, at least 215 civilians have been killed and another 474 injured during cluster munition attacks in Ukraine, per ReliefWeb.

“We have to help the Ukrainians fight this in a way that protects civilians to the maximum extent,” Crow said.

RUSSIA’S ICBM TEST: Russia tested a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile just before Biden arrived in Ukraine — and it failed.

According to two people familiar with the matter who weren’t authorized to speak publicly about the sensitive matter, Russia did notify the United States ahead of time as the launch was a “routine” weapons test. The SARMAT, known in the U.S. as the Satan II, was successfully tested last year, and it’s unclear precisely why this one failed ahead of Biden’s trip to Kyiv.

Biden administration officials aren’t viewing the test as an escalation since Moscow occasionally fires these missiles. They shrug off the timing around the Ukraine trip as purely coincidental, especially since the U.S. only gave Russia a few hours notice before Biden secretly took off for Kyiv.

CNN’s OREN LIEBERMANN and NATASHA BERTRAND first reported on the failed missile test.

‘NEW CONSENSUS’: China’s top diplomat arrived in Moscow on Tuesday, becoming the first Chinese official to step foot inside Russia since the conflict started almost a year ago.

WANG YI met Wednesday with Putin, with images showing the two sitting at a long table. The Russian leader began talking to Wang about a “complex international situation” — what could that be?

Earlier on Wednesday, Wang told his direct counterpart, Foreign Minister SERGEI LAVROV, that he hoped China and Russia could build their relationship around a “new consensus.”

“No matter how the international situation changes, China has been and remains willing to maintain the positive trend with Russia in building a new type of cooperative relationship between major powers,” Wang said.

Wang’s visit, on the heels of a tour through Europe, comes as Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN warns that China is “considering providing lethal support to Russia in the war against Ukraine.” On the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference this past weekend, Blinken shared this concern with Wang and said that China following through on that “would be a serious problem.”

10 PALESTINIANS DEAD IN IDF RAID: A gunfight between Israeli and Palestinian forces on the West Bank left at least 10 Palestinians dead and more than 100 others injured on Wednesday, The New York Times’ PATRICK KINGSLEY reports.

Three of the victims were gunmen, Israeli forces said. Others who were shot appeared to be unarmed, and at least two of the Palestinians hit were running from the gunfire, per a video circulating on social media.

It’s been the deadliest start to a year for Palestinians in a decade and a half, with nearly 60 people having been killed in the occupied West Bank in the past two months. The frequent violent spats come as Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU solidifies his far-right government, which has vowed to expand the nation’s occupation of the region.

“It’s clear that you have a sort of unique, perfect storm brewing,” the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s AARON DAVID MILLER told NatSec Daily. “There is absolutely no way without some broader strategic anchoring of this conflict … not just to de-escalate but to preempt the prospects of future confrontation. The chance of that happening is slim to none, and slim has already left town.”

IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [email protected] and [email protected], and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

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VIVEK LA VIDA LOCA:VIVEK RAMASWAMY has joined the presidential race, becoming the third Republican candidate to announce a run, following DONALD TRUMP and NIKKI HALEY, per our own SAM STEIN.

The multi-millionaire biotech entrepreneur labels himself the godfather of the anti-woke movement, and has already spent time barnstorming in early nominating states like Iowa.

In a Tuesday night Wall Street Journal op-ed, Ramaswamy mentioned foreign policy in a brief paragraph and a half. He called the “rise of communist China” the “greatest external threat to America,” thus requiring the United States to seek “economic independence” from the world’s second-largest economy. The U.S. should seek “global energy leadership” and also “semiconductor self-sufficiency” while “vigorously protecting Taiwan.”

Ramaswamy added that China was responsible for “spawning” the Covid-19 pandemic and that he would “bar U.S. companies from expanding into China until its government abandons theft and other mercantilist tactics.”

What’s more, our own DANIEL LIPPMAN chatted with Ramaswamy over some veggie enchiladas in an Iowa strip mall a few weeks back. What better way to get inside the mind of a presidential candidate?

LET’S MAKE A DEAL: NATO is discussing forging closer ties with cyber industry behemoths Microsoft and Google, our own LAURENS CERULUS writes in.

“We've all seen that the huge capabilities that companies like Microsoft and Google have, have really made a difference in keeping the systems in Ukraine up and running,” DAVID VAN WEEL, assistant secretary general for emerging security challenges at NATO, told Laurens after a long day of cyber talks with counterparts in Munich.

“There were already good contacts with industry but mostly on an ad-hoc basis. I think we're now looking into what will a more structured cooperation look like,” he said.

NATO officials have been tasked to work out the specifics by the alliance’s summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, from July 11-12.

‘SLAVE LABOR’: There are many reasons U.S. shipbuilding is sinking (get it?), but Secretary of the Navy CARLOS DEL TORO highlighted China’s “slave labor” as one of them on Tuesday.

“China does have a significant advantage,” he said per our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!). “Obviously, they're a communist country, they don't have rules by which they abide by,” like the United States. “One shipyard has more capacity than all of our shipyards combined. That presents a real threat combined with the fact that they use slave labor in building their ships. That's not the way we should do business ever. But that's what we're up against.”

Del Toro was speaking at the National Press Club about how to get more workers to make parts and weapons. He recommended “increased legal immigration” as one way to address the labor gap.

LAWMAKERS ABROAD: It’s been a busy week for U.S. politicians abroad, meeting with world leaders in Europe and the Middle East.

Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) had a “productive conversation” with Saudi Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN during a trip to the kingdom on Tuesday. The friendly relations, shown as the two smile while posing for a picture, draw a contrast to Republicans' denunciation of the Saudi leader in past years, suggesting that other lawmakers may also be open to reconnecting with MBS. Cotton also met with Netanyahu on a visit to Israel, where he prayed at the Western Wall.

A small group of congressional Republicans, led by Foreign Affairs Committee Chair MIKE McCAUL of Texas, traveled to Kyiv to meet with Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY. While there, the delegation pledged continued support for Ukraine and discussed what Kyiv needs to fend off Russia’s offensives.

Across the aisle, Sens. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) and DICK DURBIN (D-Ill.) stopped in Georgia and Romania after attending the Munich conference. There, they met with leaders to discuss the nations’ bilateral relationships and the geopolitical importance of the Black Sea region.

Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.) also visited Taiwan for the first time, but more on that below.

SPEED IT UP: The U.S. should move "heaven and Earth" to help Taiwan ward off a possible invasion from China, Gallagher said following his four-day trip to the island nation, our own ANTHONY ADRAGNA reports.

Taiwanese leaders are becoming increasingly concerned with the backlog in weapons shipments to the country, Gallagher, who chairs the House Select China Committee, told reporters. Those worries stem from concerns about a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which some U.S. officials say could happen within a few years. The country is awaiting $19 billion in arms, including Harpoon anti-ship missiles and F-16 fighter jets, some of which aren’t expected to be delivered for years.

"Time is not on our side. The threat from China is real," Gallagher said. "We just need to be moving heaven and earth to arm Taiwan to the teeth before it's too late."

–– FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: MATTHEW PEARL is now director of emerging technology at the National Security Council with their cyber directorate, Lippman has learned. He most recently was associate bureau chief at the FCC in the wireless bureau.

–– FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY:JEN HARRIS is leaving the White House where she was senior director for international economics, in a dual-hatted role at the NSC and NEC, and special assistant to the president, Lippman has also learned. She most recently focused on issues surrounding clean energy supply chains while NORA TODD handled more of the economic portfolio. After she leaves the administration on Friday, Harris will be working to stand up efforts to support IRA implementation on the outside.

— AUSTIN DAHMER has been tapped to be the defense policy adviser for Sen. JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.). He previously served as a senior policy analyst in national security at SAIC.

— Ret. Adm. MICHAEL ROGERS, the former National Security Agency and U.S. Cyber Command chief, has joined the advisory board of encryption company Duality Technologies.

— JOSHUA MESERVEY has joined the Hudson Institute as a senior fellow focusing on Africa. He previously was a research fellow on Africa for the Heritage Foundation.

— CASEY MICHEL, POLITICO: Restoring Ukrainian Control of Crimea Once Seemed Unlikely. Is that Changing?

— DARA MASSICOT, The New York Times: Russia’s Army Is Broken, but That Won’t Stop It

— CHRISTOPHER JOHNSON, Foreign Affairs:Xi the Survivor

— The Middle East Institute, 9 a.m.: The War in Ukraine and the Middle East North Africa Region: Facing the Economic Shocks

— The Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: First Anniversary of Russia's War in Ukraine

— Washington Post Live, 10:15 a.m.:U.S. Support for Ukraine with Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs VICTORIA NULAND

— The Atlantic, 11 a.m.:Russia's War on Ukraine: One Year Later with SecState Blinken

— The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 12 p.m.:The Promise and Peril of Germany's Post-Ukraine Foreign Policy Shift

— Defense Priorities, 12 p.m.:Understanding the Ukraine War: U.S. Goals, Strategy and Risks moderated by our own LARA SELIGMAN

— New America, 12 p.m.:Uncovering the Wagner Group

— The Atlantic Council, 1 p.m.:What Can Iran's Protesters Learn From Other Pro-Democracy Movements?

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 4 p.m.:From Freeze to Thaw: The State of Australia-China Relations

— The Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 5:30 p.m.:50 Years in Diplomacy, 20 Years in the Balkans, Lessons Learned

— The Henry L. Stimson Center, 7 p.m.:Russia's Road to War with Ukraine

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at [email protected] to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who wished Alex cleaned out his desk, not his notebook.

We also thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who can have Alex’s desk near the snacks.