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If the U.S. doesn’t help Ukraine decisively win its war against Russia, Washington’s adversaries are likely to feel emboldened to challenge its military dominance, a prominent Kremlin dissident tells NatSec Daily.

MIKHAIL KHODORKOVSKY, exiled Russian oligarch and vocal critic of Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN, is on a campaign to keep aid flowing to Ukraine, arguing that pursuing negotiations with Putin would harm Kyiv.

For the moment, the U.S. is still seen as maintaining the global order, “and that order is propped up by the public perception that the U.S. is a fairly tough guy,” Khodorkovsky said in an interview in our office Wednesday afternoon.

But he argued that’s changing.

Washington has suffered significant losses in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria in the past two decades, proving that the U.S. military can be successfully fought, Khodorkovsky said. If Ukraine fails against Russia after receiving more than $100 billion in aid from Washington, that “tough guy” image could shatter, he said.

“A loss in the Ukraine — or an unimpressive win — would immediately, not in the mid- or long-term, but immediately, right away — result in a whole bunch of problems for the U.S.,” Khodorkovsky said through a translator. “My fear is that there will be a great deal of others who would actually want to find out just how tough America is,” he said, calling out China by name.

MICK MULROY, who served as a deputy assistant defense secretary during the Trump administration, told NatSec Daily that while he prefers the term “leader of the free world” over “tough guy,” he mostly agrees with the Russian dissident’s assessment.

Mulroy’s ideas on what could follow: the U.S. could face direct attacks or become involved in more conflicts, especially if Russia attacks a NATO country.

Khodorkovsky, a former oil tycoon who was once Russia’s richest citizen, spent a decade in jail before being pardoned by Putin. He maintains contacts with activists and people who work in Russia, he said later in our conversation.

“There is a consensus opinion among the elites that starting the war was a mistake,” he said. But, he added, many of them feel they now have no choice but to back it: “At this point, there’s no alternative to it. It’s a war that we have to win. Otherwise the country will fall apart. Propaganda has been very effective.”

Meanwhile, Putin is banking on the 2024 presidential election turning the tide in Moscow’s favor, Khodorkovsky said, adding that the Kremlin head wants former President DONALD TRUMP to win and pull U.S. support from Ukraine.

“This is being discussed there right now, along the lines of we just have to wait it out until Trump is elected, and it will be a much easier situation for us to deal with,” the exiled businessman said. “Putin has very high expectations regarding Trump.”

That’s because of Trump’s view of the war in Ukraine: “The expectation is that … Putin will be able to accomplish the goals that he set out to from the beginning,” Khodorkovsky said. Trump hasn’t said he would entirely end aid to Ukraine, but he has been critical of the amount being sent.

When asked if he expects Russian election interference again next year, Khodorkovsky shrugged.

ZELENSKYY’S CALCULUS: As the Ukrainian leader zoomed around Capitol Hill today seeking more U.S. assistance for the war against Russia, his full-court press showed no signs of significantly shrinking resistance from a large bloc of Republicans.

After meetings with both House members and senators, Zelenskyy did not take questions on what — if any — commitments he secured from Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY on aid for his defense against Russia, or other subjects, our own ANTHONY ADRAGNA, URSULA PERANO and JONATHAN LEMIRE report.

Inside Zelenskyy’s huddle with senators, Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) said the Ukrainian leader received two standing ovations from those gathered to hear his plea for the $24 billion in additional assistance requested by the White House.

Critics of further Ukraine aid, however, left the meeting saying Zelenskyy made a passionate case but that they were unmoved.

During one meeting, the Ukrainian leader told lawmakers that “it’s a totally frozen conflict,” said Sen. JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.), an aid opponent who attended the meeting. “And I think his other comment was, ‘Everything depends on the United States.’”

The chilly reception from several lawmakers contrasted with his warm welcome in December, when he delivered a speech that boosted lawmakers’ morale ahead of Ukraine’s spring counteroffensive (which then got going in the summer).

Even before his talks, Zelenskyy received fresh pushback today from conservatives — a new hurdle for the White House and a bad sign for Kyiv.

Led by Sen. J.D. VANCE (R-Ohio) and Rep. CHIP ROY (R-Texas), 29 lawmakers signed a letter opposing the White House’s new aid request, Matt reports. The coalition cited concerns including an “open-ended commitment” to Ukraine, more than $100 billion in aid already approved and an “unclear strategy” for helping the embattled country.

When asked on MSNBC this morning about the letter — which has enough backers to block or at least delay the White House’s request — Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN argued that the White House is working for “sustainable, long-term” support, while adding that Kyiv needs to be able to stand “on its own two feet militarily, economically, democratically.”

Scroll down to On the Hill for more on Ukraine aid talks.

Read: Ukraine sends first armored vehicles through breach in Russian defenses by WSJ’s JAMES MARSON

BAIER TALKS WITH MBS: Fox News journalist BRET BAIER spoke with Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN, the leader’s first major American network interview in four years published Wednesday night. Here are the highlights:

On the Iran nuclear deal: If Iran were to ever obtain a nuclear weapon, Riyadh would “have to get one, for security reasons, for balancing power,” MBS said. “We are concerned if any country [gets] a nuclear weapon: That’s a bad, that’s a bad move.”

On negotiations with Israel: The crown prince denied that negotiations to normalize relations with Israel had stalled: “Every day we get closer,” he said, adding that it’s “the biggest historical deal since the end of the Cold War.”

On the killing of Washington Post journalist JAMAL KHASHOGGI: “We take all the legal measurements that any country took,” MBS said, adding that the country’s security system was “reformed” and “anyone involved” in the murder is in prison.

On the Sept. 11 attacks: Bin Salman denied the accusations that his government was involved in the attack, noting that OSAMA BIN LADEN recruited Saudis to help his cause in the 1990s but it “doesn’t make any sense” that the Saudi government — which had been attacked by bin Laden — would help him.

POLAND HALTS ARMS TO UKRAINE: Warsaw has stopped supplying weapons to Kyiv and is focusing on arming itself instead amid a dispute over Ukraine’s agricultural exports.

“We are no longer transferring weapons to Ukraine, because we are now arming Poland with more modern weapons,” Polish Prime Minister MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI said in a TV appearance on Wednesday, according to European Pravda. “If you don’t want to be on the defensive, you have to have something to defend yourself with,” he added, insisting that the move wouldn’t endanger Ukraine’s security.

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EASY ANSWER: When asked by ABC News’ LINSEY DAVIS about how troops at the border would know who to use “deadly force” against if he becomes president, Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS had a simple — and vague — response: “The same way you would tell for anything.”

That response, in an interview with the outlet released Wednesday night, came as he tried to clarify earlier comments he made to CBS News that troops would shoot people carrying backpacks across the border. DeSantis drew on his military experience in Iraq as an example.

“Al-Qaida didn’t wear uniforms. You know, the typical Arab male would have had the man dress on. You didn’t know if they had a bomb strapped to them or not. They carry around the AK-47s, normal civilians would, so you couldn’t even say if they had,” he said.

“So you had to make a determination,” DeSantis continued. “Can you positively identify somebody as hostile through either hostile action or hostile intent? And then you do it, same way anyone would do that even in the United States. So you will do that, we’ll be collecting intelligence.”

VIVEK’S CHINA ROLLOUT: We outlined GOP presidential candidate VIVEK RAMASWAMY’s new plan to combat China in Wednesday’s newsletter, so we won’t repeat ourselves. But the tech entrepreneur officially unveiled the plan today, and you can check out his graphics that lay out the strategy in detail: Article 1, Article 2, Article 3, Article 4, Article 5.

A JOLLY GOOD DEAL: The United States and United Kingdom finalized an agreement for the free flow of data between the two countries today, with guardrails in place to prevent surveillance, Cyberscoop’s TONYA RILEY reports.

The data framework, which will go into effect on Oct. 12, follows determinations from Washington and London to protect citizens’ data and assures tech companies that they can transfer customer data between the two nations without breaking the law.

The agreement follows several European court rulings which found that U.S. surveillance law isn’t adequate, and that European users’ data could be violated when it’s transferred overseas.

TAKE THAT, TOMMY: The Senate overwhelmingly approved two four-star generals to lead the Army and Marine Corps today, as members made a small dent in Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE‘s (R-Ala.) blockade of senior Pentagon nominees, our own JOE GOULD reports.

Gen. ERIC SMITH’s successful 96-0 confirmation vote to be the next Marine commandant followed Gen. RANDY GEORGE’s approval as Army chief of staff. A day earlier, the Senate cleared Air Force Gen. C.Q. BROWN to be the next Joint Chiefs chair.

George, who was sworn in by phone while in Alaska, is now traveling Tokyo before heading to New Delhi to co-host the 13th biennial Indo-Pacific Armies Chiefs Conference, spokesperson Maj. JEFF LEE told NatSec Daily.

Read: Defense secretary personally confronts GOP senator over ongoing military blockade by our own BURGESS EVERETT and LARA SELIGMAN

DEFENSE BILL TANKS (AGAIN): House Republicans’ push to advance their defense spending bill came up short for the second time in three days, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reports.

The bill sank today on a 212-216 procedural vote, blocking debate on the $826 billion Pentagon funding bill and delivering Speaker McCarthy another embarrassing loss from his own ranks.

Despite optimism that the second attempt would fare better than a failed vote on Tuesday, today’s vote saw Republicans gain no ground. In both cases, five Republicans broke ranks to help sink the bill.

Read: House GOP erupts as McCarthy fails to move Pentagon bill by our own SARAH FERRIS and JORDAIN CARNEY

DO MORE FOR UKRAINE, OR ELSE: Ukraine’s biggest backers in Congress want the Biden administration to more aggressively sell America’s interest in the war, fearful that bipartisan support for aid is faltering, our own JENNIFER HABERKORN and ADAM CANCRYN report.

In recent weeks, senior House Republicans and Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL have separately told national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN and other administration officials to step up their efforts in selling lawmakers on additional Ukraine aid or risk losing critical support, three people familiar with the messages told Jennifer and Adam.

Lawmakers — including the White House’s Democratic allies — say the administration needs to better use its bully pulpit to sell the public on continued support, including making a stronger case for the need for additional aid and stressing why it’s in America’s interest to back Ukraine.

“The White House needs to be more forward-leaning,” said Rep. MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.), who chairs the Armed Services Committee and has been in touch with senior Biden officials.

Read: Despite spending turmoil in Congress, Sullivan projects optimism on Ukraine aid by our own OLIVIA ALAFRIZ

NAGORNO-KARABAKH LEGISLATION: A bipartisan group of lawmakers has introduced a bill to repeal military assistance waivers against Azerbaijan and give hundreds of millions in foreign aid to Armenia, Eric scoops (for Pros!)

The bill, introduced by Sens. ROBERT MENENDEZ (D-N.J.), ALEX PADILLA (D-Calif.), SHELDON WHITEHOUSE (D-R.I.), CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.) GARY PETERS (D-Mich.) and BILL CASSIDY (R-La.) would repeal Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act, which has allowed presidents from both parties to authorize wide-ranging military and security partnerships with Azerbaijan.

The bill also levies sanctions on Azerbaijani officials, including Azerbaijani President ILHAM ALIYEV, for their roles in atrocities against Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. Congress would also allocate hundreds of millions of dollars to support Armenia’s energy sector, provide funding for joint military exercises with the U.S. and promote U.S.-Armenian scientific cooperation.

SPY IN STATE: A State Department contractor was arrested today on espionage charges, department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER announced.

Following the U.S. intelligence leak by a Air National Guard member earlier this year, the Bureau of Intelligence and Research undertook a 60-day internal security review of State’s top secret information network and systems to strengthen how it safeguards the data.

“During this review, information was uncovered indicating that a Department of State information technology contractor may have removed, retained and transmitted classified national defense information without authorization,” Miller wrote.

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — EXPERTS CALL FOR TALKS WITH IRAN: A group of two dozen liberal national security experts are urging the White House to use the momentum from this week’s prisoner swap to increase diplomatic engagement with Iran.

The signatories, a mix of academics and think tank figures that have previously held sway in Iran policy conversations, include the Arms Control Association’s DARYL KIMBALL, the Stimson Center’s BARBARA SLAVIN, Harvard University’s STEPHEN WALT and J-Street’s JEREMY BEN-AMI.

“We believe that the current course is untenable and requires guardrails to avert further escalation, including the risk of attacks against Americans and our allies,” the experts wrote in a letter first shared with NatSec Daily. “The best way to protect American interests is for the United States to lead now with bold and sustained diplomatic action.”

The letter follows the Biden administration’s denials earlier this week that the swap signaled any renewed interest from Washington to mend fences with Tehran.

— ROB MURRAY has been tapped as chief innovation officer in Saab’s new strategy office. He previously served as NATO’s head of innovation.

— JEFFREY GOLDBERG, The Atlantic: The patriot: how Gen. MARK MILLEY protected the constitution from DONALD TRUMP

— Government Accountability Office: F-35 aircraft: DOD and the military services need to reassess the future sustainment strategy

— MARK ESPER, The Washington Post: The all-volunteer force is dying. Here’s how to save it.

— The Atlantic Council, 3:30 a.m.: 2023 transatlantic forum on GeoEconomics

— The Brookings Institution, 10 a.m.: Strengthening U.S. semiconductor supply chain resilience

— The George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 11 a.m.: The crisis in Sudan

— The Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association, 11:30 a.m.: A discussion with Col. MIKE MEDGYESSY, Chief Information Officer, chief data officer and cybersecurity authorizing official for the Air Force Intelligence Community

— The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: The evolving relationship between Europe and the Indo-Pacific

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, whom we face direct attacks from everyday.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who shields us from her wrath.