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As Gov. Ron DeSantis makes Florida’s economic success a big part of his presidential election bid, he could harness state spending to work in his favor politically — or face issues that threaten to undermine his pitch.

State economists will meet Friday with the governor’s budget staff and House and Senate aides to draw up their forecasts for Florida’s tax revenues, an exercise that’ll provide insight into how the state’s economy is doing.

The estimates will help Florida lawmakers decide how they can spend tax dollars on priorities such as health care, education and corrections ahead of the next legislative session, which begins Jan. 9.

The results could alternatively provide political ammunition for state Democrats, who’ve sounded the alarm about soaring rents and unaffordable home insurance. The forthcoming revenue numbers eye factors such as home purchases, what people are borrowing and whether they’re spending.

Here are four things to watch following Friday’s meeting:

How big will Florida’s surplus be? Last year’s surplus reached a record of nearly $22 billion, a fact DeSantis often touted ahead of his gubernatorial reelection. A good chunk of that went to nixing the sales tax on certain items, particularly for families, and on providing toll rebates. So far, revenue reports are higher than initially projected — but Florida also doesn’t have the influx of federal pandemic relief dollars that it previously enjoyed.

Are economists worried about a recession? The Fed predicts the economy is humming along just fine, saying it’s unlikely a recession will hit in 2023. But DeSantis regularly criticizes President Joe Biden on the economy and in late July released his national economic plan.

Will Florida plan for future hurricanes? Rebuilding efforts are still underway following the devastation from Hurricane Ian, whose damages were estimated in the tens of billions of dollars. Such storms continue to be a looming threat to forecasting efforts and to revenue.

As it stands now, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s is predicting an “above average” storm season that could result in as many as five major hurricanes.

How’s tourism going? Theme parks have reported a drop in attendance that could be attributed to a variety of factors, including higher ticketing prices, inflation, scorching heat and maybe even politics. (DeSantis often brags about his ongoing fight with Disney, one of the largest employers in Florida, and accuses the California-based entertainment giant of “sexualizing” children.)

The results could affect sales tax collections, but — at the same time — inflation can help increase revenue from sales taxes, given that it drives up prices.

— WHERE’S RON? — Gov. DeSantis will join the Guy Benson Show on Fox News Radio.

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SENATE TARGET — Democrats tout poll that shows an opening for challenger to Rick Scott, by POLITICO’s Gary Fineout: A new poll paid for by Senate Democrats shows a potential path for Debbie Mucarsel-Powell to beat incumbent Sen. Rick Scott, fueling the push for the former Democratic congresswoman from South Florida to jump into the race.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee authorized a poll of Florida voters in July that showed Scott underwater, with 48 percent of those surveyed viewing him unfavorably compared to just 40 percent who had a favorable view.

RECAP — Semafor on signs the DeSantis campaign is still alive: “No rival has really taken advantage of DeSantis’s early stumbles. As embarrassing and long-lasting as the ‘reset’ storyline was, it was true: DeSantis is now out-working the field in Iowa,” reporter David Weigel writes. “His fair trip was bracketed with events across the state, hitting six of Iowa’s 99 counties on Friday. And in conversations with fair-goers, DeSantis and [entrepreneur Vivek] Ramaswamy’s names came up the most frequently, by far, when considering who’d be a strong nominee if Trump couldn’t make it.

MORE NUMBERS — Cost of guarding DeSantis saw a big jump in the past year, by POLITICO’s Gary Fineout: The Florida Department of Law Enforcement released an annual report on Tuesday that showed that the amount the state spent protecting the governor grew from $5.94 million in the fiscal year that ended June 30, 2022, to $9.41 million during the budget year that ended June 30 of this year. The report tracks spending on staffing as well as transportation costs paid for the security detail over a 12-month period.

The jump in security costs for DeSantis were largely due to an increase in salary costs for those guarding the governor. That rose from $2.37 million in 2022 to $5.03 million in 2023. The report does not break out the number of those that are part of the governor’s detail or whether the increased salary costs were due to overtime expenses.

RELATED — “As taxpayers pay more for DeSantis’ travel and protection, new law conceals his travel,” by the Palm Beach Post’s Douglas Soule

NOT ‘SELFISH’ — “DeSantis defends centrist GOP Gov. Chris Sununu from Trump criticism amid campaign reboot,” by Washington Examiner’s Julia Johnson: “‘New Hampshire is the best-governed state in New England,’ DeSantis said. “I think Chris has done a great job up there and you can see with the fact that people flee to New Hampshire, just like people flee to Florida, whether it’s to escape crime, high taxes, you name it.”

— “Looking to give campaign a boost, DeSantis falls back on law and order priorities,” by the Miami Herald’s Romy Ellenbogen

CAMPAIGN ABOUT COURT FIGHT — “Trump fuses 2024 election and criminal cases into one campaign,” by WSJ’s Alex Leary, Eliza Collins and John McCormick: “For now, the various criminal proceedings in New York, Washington, Florida and Georgia are drowning out his primary challengers and fit a message that Trump has been preaching to the party faithful for eight years: that the Washington bureaucracy, which he regularly describes as the Deep State, isn’t just out to get him, but is out to get his supporters too.

DESANTIS REACTS TO TRUMP 4TH INDICTMENT — The governor called the indictment a “criminalization of politics” and said prosecutors were trying to “shoehorn” the 2020 election into the RICO statute.

MONDAY CALENDAR ITEM — “Trump says he plans to hold press conference responding to Georgia indictment,” by POLITICO’s Kierra Frazier

LATER THIS WEEK — Many of Trump’s 2024 Republican challengers, including DeSantis, are set to speak at “The Gathering” in Atlanta, hosted by conservative radio host Erick Erickson. It’s taking place in the state of the most recent indictment against Trump.

Politico will be on the ground at the event, so get in touch to share your thoughts about the candidates: [email protected].

3RD TIME’S THE CHARM — Mar-a-Lago property manager Carlos De Oliveira, the third defendant in the Trump classified documents case, pleaded “not guilty” on Tuesday through his criminal defense attorney, Larry Donald Murrell Jr. POLITICO was in the courtroom for the proceedings, which lasted less than five minutes.

The Department of Justice has accused De Oliveira of trying to delete security footage investigators sought when they were seeking evidence regarding Trump’s alleged hoarding of classified material.

The arraignment was already delayed twice after De Oliveira failed to secure a counsel based here, as the rules require. He faces four charges, including making false statements and conspiracy to obstruct justice.

KEYNOTE — Ben Shapiro will speak at The Republican Party of Florida’s Statesman Dinner in Orlando next month. Other prominent speakers include Sen. Rick Scott.

RAZOR-THIN EDGE — “Christie pulls ahead of DeSantis in New Hampshire GOP primary: poll,” by The Hill’s Julia Manchester: “According to an Emerson College survey released Tuesday, Christie leapfrogged DeSantis for second place in the Granite State, garnering 9 percent support. DeSantis’s support, on the other hand, fell to 8 percent from 17 percent in March. Christie’s 1-point lead over DeSantis falls within the poll’s plus-or-minus 3.4 percent margin of error.”

Reminder: Christie is expected to campaign in Miami on Friday, as POLITICO’s Gary Fineout reported Monday.

DISNEY DRAMA — The DeSantis-appointed Central Florida Tourism Oversight District asked a state judge in a 28-page filing late Tuesday to skip a trial and rule in its favor against Walt Disney World.

FINED — “Florida fines abortion clinic $193K, nearly 3 times judge’s recommendation,” by News Service of Florida: “Administrative Law Judge J. Bruce Culpepper this spring issued a recommended order that said the clinic should pay a $67,550 fine — $350 for each violation [of the state’s 24-hour waiting period]. But under administrative law, the recommended order had to go to the Agency for Health Care Administration for a final decision.”

— “Stalled FAU presidential search fuels anger among donors and trustees,” by South Florida Sun-Sentinel’s Scott Travis

— “Florida’s ban on felon gun ownership challenged,” by the Orlando Sentinel’s Jim Saunders

BIRTHDAYS: Michael Grunwald, journalist and author … Former Rep. Tim Mahoney