With Daniel Lippman

WHAT THE ELECTION RESULTS MEAN FOR K STREET: Republicans came out of last night’s elections still poised to retake the majority in the House, albeit with smaller margins than most in Washington anticipated, while the balance of the Senate remains up in the air — meaning no matter how things shake out, K Street has its work cut out for it.

— “I think it’s hard to truly gauge at this point where things stand because of what is outstanding,” said Casey Higgins, a former Paul Ryan aide now at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld. But, she noted, “as we’ve seen with Speaker [Nancy] Pelosi this year, whenever you have a smaller majority in the House everything is harder.” And when “Congress is working harder to get things done, we work harder as well.”

— As Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) pointed out to my colleagues Olivia Beavers and Hailey Fuchs last night, a more closely divided chamber gives each individual member more leverage to extract concessions or gum up the works.

— It might also dilute the benefit of lobbying firms scrambling to add former staff, argued Prism Group’s John Stanford, who quibbled with Influence’s focus on former Kevin McCarthy staffers yesterday.

— “I think a new GOP majority has made clear they will be best influenced outside the beltway,” he said in an email, adding that new and current clients have shown “far more interest” in the firm’s grassroots and grasstops capabilities in key districts or with key constituencies than which lawmaker’s alumni work at the firm.

— There’s reason to believe the implications of having slimmer majorities extend past the legislative realm to Republicans’ well publicized oversight agenda, argued Alyssa DaCunha, the co-chair of congressional investigations at WilmerHale, who posited that one way a Speaker McCarthy could keep his conference together on big votes “is by cutting deals on the oversight side.”

— That could mean “giving members who might be a little bit more outspoken platforms to pursue their favorite issues” through oversight, or greenlighting the use of enhanced tools like subpoenas, in exchange for legislative compromises.

— At the end of the day, “oversight with a majority of one feels exactly the same as oversight with a majority of a hundred,” BGR’s Dave Urban told PI. That’s not great news for the parts of corporate America Republicans have been itching to go after, a tactic that likely looks even more appealing to the party in the wake of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ focus on the issue and his landslide victory last night.

— DaCunha reiterated that companies looking to maintain their standing in Washington are in for “total whiplash” if Democrats do manage to keep their slim grip on power in the Senate. Navigating that will mean congressional targets need to choose their battles wisely and be able to “tell your story proactively, in a way that's gonna help you, or at least that will play well with multiple audiences,” she said.

Good afternoon and welcome to PI, where we hope you’ve had ample coffee after last night. Are you sending your clients memos on what to expect in the coming days and weeks? Send them my way: [email protected]. And be sure to follow me on Twitter: @caitlinoprysko.

THE OVERSIGHT FIGHT TO COME: It’s hardly a secret in Washington (and on Wall Street, for that matter) that among the biggest losers in a GOP-controlled Congress would be the financial services industry. Our Zach Warmbrodt and Sam Sutton have a great deep dive on the stakes for financial firms, who they write will “hate the GOP’s plans for 2023.”

— “Conservatives, who are likely to be in the majority come January, are pressing GOP leaders to send a message to big financial firms: Stop appeasing the left with ‘woke’ business practices, keep financing fossil fuels and cut ties with China. House Republicans are poised to have committee gavels and subpoena powers to back that up, while Senate control is more in doubt.”

— “GOP lawmakers are singling out major asset managers and their Washington trade groups as targets because of climate investing practices they see as hostile to oil, gas and coal. Some Republicans want to continue hauling in big bank CEOs to publicly testify — a tradition established by liberal Democrats.”

— “GOP senators are already demanding that law firms preserve documents related to how they advise clients on environmental and social initiatives, signaling a potential investigation. Wall Street firms and Washington lobbyists are preparing for subpoenas.”

— “While Republicans would no doubt use their House majority to push back on Biden administration proposals to regulate finance, GOP lawmakers have grown increasingly frustrated with Wall Street giants that have taken social stances at odds with the conservative movement. The shift is leaving big banks and investment firms with a shrinking number of reliable allies in Washington.”

FTX’S TROUBLES IN WASHINGTON DEEPEN: “US regulators are investigating whether beleaguered crypto-exchange FTX.com mishandled customer funds, and they’re looking into the firm’s relationships with other parts of Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto empire,” Bloomberg’s Lydia Beyoud, Yueqi Yang and Olga Kharif report.

— “The inquiries by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission relate to the liquidity crisis that has pushed FTX to the brink, according to three people familiar with the matter. The SEC’s scrutiny started months ago as a probe into FTX US and its crypto-lending activities, said two of the people, who weren’t authorized to speak publicly on the matter.”

— “FTX’s turmoil led to a tentative rescue offer by rival exchange Binance Holdings Ltd., which now may balk as the scope of FTX’s distress becomes more apparent. American regulators are also looking into the platform’s relationship with its American counterpart FTX US and Bankman-Fried’s trading house Alameda Research, two of the people said.”

— Concern in Washington over the exchange’s collapse extends outside the agencies, our Sam Sutton reports. “The recent events show the necessity of congressional action,” Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), who’s poised to chair the House Financial Services Committee in a GOP-led House, told him. “I look forward to learning more from FTX and Binance in the coming days about these events and the steps they will take to protect customers during the transition.”

CANNABIS HAS A MIXED NIGHT: “Tuesday’s election results further deepen the chasm between state and federal cannabis laws,” POLITICO’s Natalie Fertig, Mona Zhang and Paul Demko report.

— “While people will soon be able to legally purchase and use marijuana in 21 states” after voters Maryland and Missouri approved ballot measures last night, “cannabis remains classified as a Schedule I drug on the Controlled Substances Act, the same category as heroin,” and voters in three other states rejected legalization measures.

— “Cannabis businesses operating in state-legal markets still struggle to open bank accounts or get small business loans to fund their start-up costs. Congress has passed no significant legislation loosening federal restrictions on the drug, despite strong bipartisan support for bills that would make it easier for cannabis companies to access banking and expand medical research.”

— “Medical marijuana businesses donated heavily to the legalization campaigns in Arkansas and Missouri, marking a shift in how cannabis campaigns are funded. In the past, advocates have struggled to raise money from industry interests.”

— “Industry involvement in drafting and running those initiatives opened them up to criticism from longtime pro-marijuana advocates.” Still, legalization advocates’ “inroads in more sparsely populated, staunchly conservative parts of the country … has the potential to shake up the dynamics on Capitol Hill,” potentially increasing support for piecemeal bills in Congress.

SPOTTED at Akin Gump’s election day open house at RPM Italian, per a tipster: Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter; Inside Elections’ Nathan Gonzales; National Review’s Ramesh Ponnuru; Hunter Bates, Brian Pomper, Brendan Dunn, Arshi Siddiqui, Geoff Verhoff, Ed Pagano, Anna Abram, Filemon Vela, Jeff McMillen of Akin Gump; Steve Neuman of American Airlines; Matt Miller, Corey Astill and Andrew Beilein of the Business Roundtable; Stephanie Mathias, Paul Scolese, Alexis Gurganious and Jenny Prime of Cox Enterprises; Chris Ternet and Laura Prugh of Stanley Black & Decker; Zach Sentementes of PhRMA; Teresa Skala of Anheuser-Busch; Kaitlin Sighinolfi and Jordan Cameron of International Paper; David Bonelli of Lyft; Harmony Barbera of PG&E and Whitney VanMeter and Annie Lawrence of UPS.

— And at ROKK Solutions’ “ROKK The Vote” Election Day party at P.J. Clarke’s, per a tipster: Suzanne Beall of Amazon; Lisa Hanna, Skiffington Holderness and Dee Janovsky of Delta Air Lines; Mark Bednar of McCarthy’s office; Tom Porter and Victor Bohm of Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America; Dave Grimaldi of the Blockchain Association; Stephen Bradford of Investment Company Institute; Thomas Quinn of Venable; Senay Bulbul of the British Embassy; Jeff Berkowitz of Delve; Cole Rojewski of RBW Group; Kristina Dunklin of Forbes Tate Partners; Anu Rangappa of Monumental Sports and Entertainment; Brad Howard and Stephen Borg of the Vogel Group; Neal Patel of Alpine Group; Carol Danko of Prudential; Liz Johnson of Sen. Mitt Romney’s (R-Utah) office; Sara Conrad of The Conrad Group; Missy Kurek of mKz Strategies; Brian Sansoni of American Cleaning Institute; Darien Flowers of Flexport; Jenette Morell of Vita Inclinata; Ashley Jordan of The Townsend Group; Sara Bonjean of Rose Strategies and Ron Bonjean and Kristen Hawn of ROKK.

— Elizabeth Parker is now senior manager, state affairs for Troutman Pepper Strategies. She previously was vice president of Two Capitols Consulting.

— Samantha Keitt is now director of governmental, international, and public affairs for the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration at the DOT. She previously was vice president at Left Hook and is an SKDK alum.

None.

DemocracyUp PAC (Super PAC)
Haynesville PAC (PAC)
KBA PAC (PAC)
SES Government Solutions PAC (PAC)
SFA, Inc. (Hybrid PAC)

All-Circo, Inc.: Blackstone Chamberlain
Cavarocchi Ruscio Dennis Associates, L.L.C.: Vhl Alliance
Hannegan Landau Poersch & Rosenbaum Advocacy, LLC: USa Managed Care Organization
Imperium Global Advisors: Cohesity

Mr. John Kelly: Blackstone/Chamberlain