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RIP BLAKE: We here at NatSec Daily are deeply saddened by the passing of BLAKE HOUNSHELL. This newsletter exists in large part because of him. He felt POLITICO needed a national security newsletter and helped developed NatSec Daily into what we are today. We already miss him dearly, and will have more to say tomorrow.

In the meantime, our Editor-in-Chief MATT KAMINSKI released a statement: "Blake spent nearly a decade at POLITICO, leaving us in late 2021, and there were few people in the history of our publication who have left a more lasting mark. Blake was a mentor to countless great journalists here, many of whom he recruited and edited. He championed unusual talents and quirky ideas. He hated conventionality. In so many ways, Blake personified the essential journalistic values of this publication."

And now, our main story with Sen. Tim Kaine:

The United States should comply with a legitimate extradition request for former Brazilian President JAIR BOLSONARO if the new administration in Brasilia asks for it, Sen. TIM KAINE (D-Va.) told NatSec Daily.

There’s no indication Brazilian President LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA’s team is preparing such a request following an attack by thousands of Bolsonaro supporters on government facilities this week. But if one does reach Washington, D.C., Kaine, who leads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s Western Hemisphere panel, says the U.S. should agree to it.

“I think we need to be responsive if there is a legit criminal proceeding and an extradition request,” he said in an interview, adding the U.S. should “comply” with it. “I think the U.S. needs to be responsive to that, to extradite Bolsonaro back.”

Some U.S. lawmakers have already called for the removal of Bolsonaro, who’s been spending his post-presidency days in Florida. But the U.S. can’t legally do so until Brazil officially asks American authorities to hand him over.

The State Department declined to comment on the type of visa the former Brazilian leader used to enter the United States, saying such records are confidential.

Yesterday, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN said the U.S. had yet to receive an extradition request from Brazil. Kaine said he has no indication such a request is in the works, but he expects the U.S. is preparing for its arrival. “I would not be surprised,” he said.

In September, Kaine and Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) saw their resolution in support of Brazil’s democracy — written to warn Bolsonaro supporters off the kind of violence they engaged in on Sunday — pass unanimously in the Senate. The Virginia lawmaker suggested he and his colleagues might take a “second bite at the apple” at a similar measure.

In the meantime, Kaine would like to see Lula come to Washington as soon as he’s able to do so safely. That would underscore the strength of the U.S.-Brazilian relationship, Kaine said.

Kaine expects to travel to Latin America, with a stop in Brazil, as soon as this spring.

BIDEN THINK TANK HAD CLASSIFIED DOCS:Classified documents from the Obama administration were found at a think tank affiliated with President JOE BIDEN, our own OLIVIA OLANDER, JOSH GERSTEIN and JONATHAN LEMIRE report.

Per CNN’s JAMIE GANGEL and MARSHALL COHEN, the documents included intelligence and briefings on matters involving Ukraine, Iran and the United Kingdom.

The White House is cooperating with the Justice Department and the National Archives. “Since that discovery, the President’s personal attorneys have cooperated with the Archives and Department of Justice in a process to ensure that any Obama-Biden Administration records are appropriately in the possession of the Archives,” said RICHARD SAUBER, special counsel to Biden, in a statement.

The materials were discovered on Nov. 2, prompting Attorney General MERRICK GARLAND to refer the matter to U.S. Attorney JOHN LAUSCH in Chicago for review.

“The discovery of classified documents on private property bears some resemblance to the FBI’s seizure of sensitive White House records at Mar-a-Lago, former President DONALD TRUMP’s Florida estate, in August. However, in Biden’s case, the documents were handed over willingly, according to Sauber. They were also not discovered at Biden’s private residence,” per the reporters.

Rep. MIKE TURNER (R-Ohio), the incoming chair of the House Intelligence Committee, requested a review and damage assessment of the information found at the think tank.

PATRIOT MISSILE TRAINING:The Pentagon has confirmed that Ukrainian troops will begin training on Patriot missile defense systems in the U.S. as soon as next week, as CNN's OREN LIEBERMANN and HALEY BRTIZKY report.

Our own LARA SELIGMAN first reported in December that the U.S. was considering training Ukrainian forces at a military base in the United States.

STRYKERS TO UKRAINE?: The U.S. is considering sending Stryker armored combat vehicles to Ukraine in an upcoming aid package to help Kyiv fend off an expected Russian spring offensive, four people familiar with the discussion told our own LARA SELIGMAN, LEE HUDSON and PAUL McLEARY.

The Strykers may be part of the next tranche of military aid, according to a Defense Department official, who asked for anonymity to discuss internal deliberations ahead of an announcement. The administration could announce the package, with or without Strykers, late next week around the time of the next Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in Germany.

The people stressed that no final decision has been made, and the administration could decide to send the Strykers in a future package instead.

News of more potential aid from the United States comes as French and Polish officials push Germany to send its Leopard 2 tanks to Kyiv. It would be a major boost for Ukraine’s military, since its allies have so far been willing to send only infantry fighting vehicles, which aren’t as powerful, and older Soviet-era tanks that were in the stocks of eastern European countries.

WAR GAME SHOWS CHINA COULDN’T TAKE TAIWAN: If China invades Taiwan, it’ll come at a heavy cost to the United States and both countries’ militaries, according to a new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Analysts at the think tank conducted war game simulations of a Chinese invasion in 2026, concluding that it’s unlikely Beijing would triumph over the island nation in such a scenario. Though victorious, the U.S. military would be severely weakened, per the report titled The First Battle of the Next War. It was first viewed by CNN.

In addition to the U.S. and its allies losing dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft and tens of thousands of service members, “the high losses damaged the U.S. global position for many years,” the authors wrote, who recommend that the U.S. strengthen deterrence efforts immediately. “China also lost heavily, and failure to occupy Taiwan might destabilize Chinese Communist Party rule.”

MARINE UNIT COMING TO OKINAWA: The U.S wants a rapid-reaction unit of Marines armed with missiles to be set up in Okinawa as the U.S. prepares for potential Chinese aggression against Taiwan, Reuters’ TIM KELLY and MARIKO KATSUMURA report.

A Marine Littoral Regiment on the Japanese islands in the East China Sea between Taiwan and Japan's mainland will be established within a few years, according to Japanese and U.S. diplomatic sources. The U.S. hopes to have the unit ready by 2026.

It’s expected to be on the agenda during security meetings between Japan’s and the United States’ foreign and defense ministers on Wednesday, the sources said.

IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [email protected] and [email protected], and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

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BATTLE FOR SOLEDAR: Russian forces are launching a series of attacks in Soledar, a mining town that could prove to be crucial in the battle for Bakhmut, NBC News’ PATRICK SMITH reports.

The fighting has resulted in heavy losses for both sides with Russian forces employing World War I battle tactics by sending large numbers of troops toward the frontlines.

Russian troops have fought alongside Wagner Group mercenaries, who U.S. officials believe are growing operations in Africa and Europe.

Battle for control of the town comes as Russian forces accelerate efforts to take control of Bakhmut, where extensive fighting has forced the city to go weeks without water or power.

IRAN INTERCEPTED: The U.S. Navy intercepted a vessel carrying more than 2,000 AK-47 assault rifles bound for Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in the Gulf of Oman last week, U.S. Central Command disclosed on Tuesday.

A team from the USS Chinook coastal patrol ship boarded the vessel, a stateless dhow sailing a route historically used to smuggle weapons from Iran to Yemen, on Friday, according to CENTCOM. The Chinook was supported by the coastal patrol ship USS Monsoon and the destroyer USS The Sullivans.

Tehran’s illegal weapons trafficking through international waters has “a destabilizing effect on the region,” said Gen. MICHAEL “ERIK” KURILLA, CENTCOM chief.

‘NO EVIDENCE’: The Pentagon is backing Kyiv up on its rejection of Russian claims that a deadly strike in the eastern city of Kramatorsk killed 600 people. The U.S. sees “no evidence” to support Moscow’s assertion, a military official told NatSec Daily.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said the strike was revenge for a Ukrainian New Year’s Day attack on a facility housing Russian soldiers. But journalists who visited the scene of the strikes in Kramatorsk, including the Associated Press and the New York Times, also saw no signs of casualties.

DES MOINES SHUTS SCHOOLS:A cyberattack on the technology network of Iowa’s largest city led the school district to cancel classes for 33,000 students Tuesday, the Associated Press reports.

“DMPS preemptively took the school district’s internet and network services offline this morning in response to unusual activity on the network. At this time, the matter is being investigated by our IT staff and consultants,” the district tweeted.

The nature and scope of the attack is still unknown. But the development shows how disruptive a single cyberattack can be for thousands of people.

NAVY SYMPOSIUM: The Surface Navy Association begins its three-day symposium today as service leaders search for ways to increase shipbuilding and strategize future efforts to modernize the fleet, our friends in Morning Defense (for Pros!) report.

Leaders will likely also discuss how maintenance backlogs within the service could affect long-term goals, and how inflation may hamper shipbuilders' capacity to build fast enough to grow the fleet.

The Navy's long-term shipbuilding strategy for Congress outlined ways to expand the fleet's size by 2052 to as much as roughly 370 vessels.

VANCE LETTER QUESTIONS UKRAINE FUNDING: Sen. J.D. VANCE (R-Ohio) is requesting signatures on a letter, obtained by NatSec Daily, that questions the amount of aid the U.S. provides to Ukraine.

“The four Ukraine supplemental spending bills passed since the escalation of the Ukraine/Russia conflict in February of 2022 amount to arguably the 4th largest discretionary appropriations bill,” reads the letter addressed to SHALANDA YOUNG, director of the Office of Management and Budget.

As a result, Vance wants OMB to expand upon a congressionally mandated report due Feb. 24 so lawmakers can know exactly what and how much the U.S. has sent to Ukraine.

“The report should include a full accounting of total budget authority in this area by appropriations account after transfers and reprogrammings, as well as obligations, apportionments, and outlays for each account,” per the letter. “The report should also include a list of countries the administration considers ‘impacted by the situation in Ukraine’ and an accounting of budgetary resources the administration intends to provide to each of these countries in response to the situation in Ukraine including obligations, apportionments, and outlays.”

Vance was skeptical of continued support for Ukraine on the campaign trail. In a statement to POLITICO, Vance said: "The American people deserve to know the extent to which they are underwriting our government’s endeavors in eastern Europe. I do not intend to sit back and allow the Biden Administration to keep this information under wraps."

MIKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN:Rep. MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.)was tapped to serve as chair of the House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday in a closed-door House GOP conference, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reports.

Rogers, who served as ranking member of the committee in the previous Congress, clinched control of the panel in an uncontested bid. The move comes amid infighting among House Republicans, a small faction of whom wants to use increased leverage from speakership negotiations to slash defense spending.

The Alabama Republican will likely use his power on the committee to attack the Biden administration's Pentagon policies, which the GOP has described as "woke" and a distraction that could hamper morale.

Some other members who secured leadership posts on natsec committees include Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) who will chair the House Foreign Relations Committee, Rep. MARK GREEN (R-Tenn.) who will lead the chamber’s Homeland Security Committee and Turner who will run the House Intelligence Committee. Rep. MIKE BOST (R-Ill.) will serve as chair of the Veterans Committee.

Rep. KAY GRANGER (R-Texas) will also chair the Appropriations Committee, which approves Pentagon funding.

SANTOS BE GONE: A bloc of House Democrats with national security backgrounds is urging Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY to bar scandal-plagued freshman Rep. GEORGE SANTOS (R-N.Y.) from accessing classified information and from serving on committees that use it, Connor also reports (for Pros!).

Four Democrats argued in a letter to McCarthy obtained by POLITICO that the New York Republican is a "direct threat to national security." They pointed to Santos' false statements about his background and concerns about campaign finances as cause for him to resign, though he has not done so.

The letter was signed by four Democrats, all of whom are military veterans: Reps. PAT RYAN of New York, SETH MOULTON of Massachusetts, CHRISSY HOULAHAN of Pennsylvania and freshman JEFF JACKSON of North Carolina. Ryan, Moulton and Houlahan all serve on the Armed Services Committee.

In a letter to McCarthy, nonprofit watchdog Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington also called on Santos to resign from Congress and, if he doesn’t, be barred from serving on any committee where he’s allowed access to classified information.

Santos did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

— SEAN CALABRIA has joined American Global Strategies as a research associate. He most recently was senior research analyst at America Rising.

— JENN MILLER is now the foreign policy and homeland security LA for Rep. JOSH GOTTHEIMER (D-N.J.). She was a government relations associate at the Israel Policy Forum.

–– VALERIE ROZMAN has joined the Asia Group as a principal. Rozman spent years in the intelligence community working on Asia issues.

— ROBERT ZARETSKY, POLITICO: What Macron should have told Putin

— MARK DUBOWITZ and ORDE KITTRIE, Foundation for Defense of Democracies: Strategy for a New Comprehensive U.S. Policy on Iran

— MONA YACOUBIAN, War On The Rocks: Ukraine’s Consequences are Finally Spreading to Syria

— Surface Navy Association, 7:30 a.m.: 35th National Symposium

— The Atlantic Council, 8 a.m.: The case for Ukraine retaking Crimea

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 8:30 a.m.:Disrupted Global Order: Implications for U.S.-Japan Cooperation

— The Intelligence and National Security Alliance, 9:45 a.m.:Coffee and Conversation with Rear Adm. MICHAEL STUDEMAN, USN

— The Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.:Fighting China with Chips: US Microelectronics Supplies during a Trade War

— The National Defense Industrial Association, 10 a.m.: The State of the Space Industrial Base

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1:30 p.m.:The Capital Cable #62: Korea-Japan relation in 2023

— The Brookings Institution, 4 p.m.:Reflections on US defense policy from Rep. ADAM SMITH

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at [email protected] to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

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