A pair of new analyses show how far the U.S. has come in cutting greenhouse gas emissions — and how far it still has to go.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that U.S. energy-related emissions will fall 3 percent for all of 2023. The academic emissions tracker Carbon Monitor shows total U.S. emissions fell 2.5 percent during the first three quarters of the year.

The decline comes after two years of flat or increasing output of planet-warming pollution and is one of the largest annual emission drops of the past decade, writes Benjamin Storrow.

However, the 3 percent decline means the U.S. needs to catch up in meeting the commitments it made under the Paris Agreement, in which the country pledged to cut emissions by 50 percent of 2005 levels by the decade’s end. To meet that goal, the U.S. would have to cut emissions by roughly 6 percent a year through 2030.

“We are seeing consistent emission decreases at the scale of the entire country, but not at the pace that we need,” said Chris Field, who leads the Woods Institute for the Environment at Stanford University.

The largest driver of falling carbon emissions has been plummeting coal demand.

Power plants, which account for 90 percent of coal consumption, are on track to burn 384 million tons this year — the lowest level since 1973. Coal use is expected to drop 18 percent in 2023 compared with 2022.

Much of the fall in coal consumption has been filled by natural gas, which is up 8 percent over 2022 levels and is expected to rise to 42 percent of electricity production. Wind and solar production, by contrast, has remained essentially flat.

“We’re not shifting to zero carbon, we’re shifting to half as much carbon,” said Drew Shindell, a professor of earth sciences at Duke University. “It is not a sustainable thing to shift from coal to gas.”

It is unclear if the U.S. will be able to supercharge the renewable energy development needed to reduce carbon emissions. Higher interest rates, supply chain bottlenecks, transmission constraints and lengthy permitting timelines have presented challenges for new projects, particularly wind development.

But there is good news.

This year’s reductions are largely independent of the Inflation Reduction Act, the 2022 law that provides $369 billion in clean energy spending. The IRA is aimed at alleviating high financing costs, facilitating the adoption of green technologies such as electric vehicles, heat pumps, hydrogen and advanced nuclear.

It’s Tuesday — thank you for tuning in to POLITICO’s Power Switch. I’m your host, Christian Robles. Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to [email protected].

PROGRAMMING NOTE: We’ll be off for Thanksgiving this Thursday and Friday but back to our normal schedule on Monday, Nov. 27.

Today in POLITICO Energy’s podcast: Annie Snider breaks down her investigation into how federal money is making the Colorado River fight more expensive.

With no U.S. pipeline chief, is regulation in peril?
The White House has gone nearly three years without nominating someone to lead the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, raising concerns about the safety and oversight of infrastructure carrying carbon dioxide, writes Carlos Anchondo.

The White House says the federal agency’s current temporary chief, Tristan Brown, can carry out all “lawfully vested” duties but has not said why no nominee has been put forward. Still, critics say the lack of a permanent administrator signals the agency is not a top priority and limits the amount of work it can take on at a time.

Supreme Court to hear Chevron doctrine showdown

The Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in two cases that will decide the fate of one of the most consequential legal doctrines in environmental and administrative law, writes Pamela King.

The Chevron doctrine is a 40-year-old precedent that gives agencies leeway to interpret rulemaking power when laws are ambiguous. Relentless v. Commerce and Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo, the two cases that could topple Chevron, come at a time when the conservative Supreme Court looks eager to rein in the power of federal agencies.

Mine the tension: A proposed sulfide mine in Minnesota for nickel and copper, two critical minerals, could help produce lithium electric vehicle batteries and create jobs but could also contaminate the nearby water supply and endanger Indigenous culture.

Deep-sea danger: A study of Norwegian jellyfish shows the dangers of deep-sea mining on marine life.

Some climate impacts, such as ice melt and sea-level rise, will continue no matter how quickly or deeply emissions decline.

The Biden administration announced $2 billion for projects in historically underserved areas across the country to build clean energy and address climate change.

New York’s independent grid operator determined that four peaker power plants need to stay online until a transmission line for Canadian hydropower is completed to avoid a reliability shortfall in New York City.