Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt

With help from Daniel Lippman

PROGRAMMING NOTE: We’ll be off for Thanksgiving this Thursday and Friday but back to our normal schedule on Monday, Nov. 28.

Ukraine’s secret planning for a military campaign in Crimea isn’t much of a secret anymore.

On Saturday, Ukrainian Defense Minister VOLODYMYR HAVRYLOV told Sky News it was “possible” Ukrainian troops would move on the annexed peninsula by the end of December.

Asked about this remark by POLITICO’s LUIZA SAVAGE during the Halifax International Security Forum, top Ukrainian official ANDRIY YERMAK let out a soft chuckle. “This war, it continues,” he said Saturday, adding that “I’m sure” a campaign to retake Crimea will happen. He (understandably) refused to offer a timeline for the offensive.

Hours later, reporters asked Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister OLGA STEFANISHYNA if Ukrainian and U.S. military planners were gaming out what the recapture of Crimea might look like. She sat still for a long beat, prompting journalists to laugh uncomfortably. She broke the silence by simply saying “okay.” More nervous giggles.

It’s no surprise that Ukraine wants to retake Crimea. One of Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY’s conditions for peace is that all seized lands come once again under Kyiv’s control. He’s vowed time and time again that his forces will make that happen. That said, one can’t discount that Ukraine’s signals of a coming campaign could be fakeout, similar to how Kyiv said it would launch a southern counteroffensive only to push into Kharkiv in the north.

Either way, there’s been some skepticism that Ukraine can pull off such a move. “The probability of a Ukrainian military victory defined as kicking the Russians out of all of Ukraine to include what they define or what the claim is Crimea, the probability of that happening anytime soon is not high, militarily,” Gen. MARK MILLEY, the Joint Chiefs chair, said last week.

And while U.S. officials publicly say that “Crimea is Ukraine,” privately some have told NatSec Daily they fear what happens following a drive for the peninsula. Striking Crimea with missiles is one thing, but retaking it is another. There’s a chance Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN escalates the war in retaliation — something U.S. and Western officials don’t want to see. We’ve heard a growing sentiment that Western and Ukrainian interests aren’t fully aligned when it comes to Crimea.

That said, U.S. predictions about Ukraine’s military chances have been wrong throughout the nine-month war, and Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling to date hasn’t led to anything. Ukraine would like to defy America’s predictions once more.

TURKISH TROOPS TO SYRIA?: Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN on Monday vowed to send troops into Syria after airstrikes targeted Kurdish positions in Syria and Iraq overnight, Agence France-Presse reports.

"There is no question that this operation be limited to only an aerial operation," Erdoğan told reporters on a flight home after attending the opening of the World Cup in Qatar.

The warning is the latest in a tit-for-tat that is escalating tensions between the countries. About a week ago, Ankara blamed the Kurdistan Workers’ Party for a bomb attack in Istanbul killed six people, which it denies. Erdoğan has been threatening since May to launch the military operation into northern Syria.

MORE OIL FROM OPEC?: Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ members are considering an oil production increase as world leaders prepare for further sanctions on Russian oil, The Wall Street Journal’s SUMMER SAID and BENOIT FAUCON report.

Delegates for OPEC+ will discuss increasing production by about 500,000 barrels a day at the group’s Dec. 4 meeting. If enacted, the move would come shortly before the European Union imposes an embargo on Russian oil and G-7 leaders launch a price cap on Russian crude sales.

Saudi energy minister Prince ABDULAZIZ BIN SALMAN denied the reports that they might increase production, instead saying they might cut back again. The decision by OPEC+ to decrease oil production in October was seen as a gift to Moscow and a blow to the Biden administration and Western leaders.

WEAPONS NOT WORDS: The way to protect global democracy right now is with weapons and support for Ukraine’s battle against Russia rather than talks, U.S. and Western diplomats, officials and military leaders relayed at the Halifax International Security Forum over the weekend, Alex reported Sunday with our own PAUL McLEARY and CONNOR O’BRIEN.

Even the Biden administration, which has senior leaders disagreeing in public about when diplomacy should start, made one of the strongest cases for continued and uninterrupted aid to Kyiv.

“The outcome of the war in Ukraine will help determine the course of global security in this young century, and those of us in North America don’t have the option of sitting this one out,” Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN said during a well-received address on Saturday. “Stability and prosperity on both sides of the Atlantic are at stake.”

TWO SIDES TO THE STORY: Moscow and Kyiv are battling over the narrative of a video showing at least 11 captured Russian soldiers laying face down, apparently fatally shot at close range by Ukrainian soldiers: Did Ukraine commit war crimes against Russian troops? Or did the Russians incite the incident, causing the captors to respond in self-defense?

Both countries have accused each other of committing war crimes in the same episode, The New York Times reported Sunday. For their part, Russians accused Ukraine’s forces of “mercilessly shooting unarmed Russian P.O.W.s.” Meanwhile, DMYTRO LUBINETS, Ukraine’s commissioner for human rights, said the captured soldiers fired upon the Ukrainians as they surrendered.

The details of what led to the incident are unconfirmed, and the United Nations said the killings should be investigated.

IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [email protected] and [email protected], and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio, @magmill95, @ericgeller, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye.

G7 WON’T RECOGNIZE NUCLEAR DPRK: The G-7 released a statement collectively rejecting the possibility of recognizing North Korea as a nuclear state, marking the first time the world's leading democracies have rebuked the idea as a group.

“The DPRK cannot and will never have the status of a nuclear-weapon State in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) or any other special status,” the group wrote, using North Korea’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

The statement comes as experts start to wonder more and more if the U.S. should recognize North Korea as a nuclear state, even if the Biden administration has shown no signs of moving in that direction.

“Stubborn insistence, the language of 'cannot and will never have special status', seems unproductive," tweetedJOHN DELURY, a professor of Chinese studies at Yonsei University in South Korea.

NEW MISSILE LAUNCHERS: Poland has accepted Germany's offer of Patriot missile launchers, and now both NATO members will work to deploy them at the Polish border with Ukraine, Reuters’ PAWEL FLORKIEWICZ and ALAN CHARLISH report.

IRAN HACKING THREAT: Iran is nearing the ability to hack American and Israeli drones, ClearSky Cyber Security CEO BOAZ DOLEV said Monday.

Per the Jerusalem Post’s YONAH JEREMY BOB, Dolev used the INSS conference on Iran to say “Tehran is expanding its cyber capabilities in every arena, including ongoing improved efforts to hack drones and to develop closer to ‘zero-day’ capabilities.”

Such capability is usually associated with three other cyber powers: the U.S., Russia and China.

If Dolev is right, Iran’s enhanced cyber capabilities could complicate the drone operations of the U.S. and Israeli militaries.

Iran's offensive cyber capabilities have drawn U.S. condemnation, including a series of sanctions after the regime targeted NATO ally Albania with cyberattacks on the country's government infrastructure in July.

SMOOTH SAILING: Coast Guard Commandant Adm. LINDAFAGAN said the service is "in a good place" with contracts to build new ships, including a new heavy icebreaker and an offshore patrol cutter, our friends over at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report.

"My predecessors have put the organization on a path [with] our largest acquisition plan since World War II,” Fagan told Connor at the Halifax conference. “I just need to keep my foot on the gas, but I'm not having to do any heavy lifting."

That’s not the case with the service's recruiting shortage, which remains her top priority. "If you were to ask me what keeps me up at night, right now it's the people equation," Fagan said. "We're short now. We need to turn the corner and just begin to regain that capacity.”

MORE UKRAINE AID: The bipartisan congressional delegation in attendance in Halifax said Congress is ready to sign off on more aid to Ukraine as part of a year-end funding package — and may even boost assistance beyond the $38 billion that President JOE BIDEN requested last week, Morning Defense also reports.

“The United States needs to make clear [that] we are willing to not just provide the package the president has requested, but add to it in ways that we think will add to Ukraine's defense," said Sen. CHRIS COONS (D-Conn.) of the Foreign Relations Committee.

Rep. JASON CROW (D-Colo.), a HASC member, also said more money should be included to shore up Ukraine’s electrical grid amid stepped-up Russian missile attacks.

DEAFENING SILENCE: The Iran Men's National Team remained silent Monday during their country's national anthem before the team’s opening World Cup match against England.

Fans in the crowd were also heard audibly booing the national anthem and holding signs in protest of the Iranian regime. The actions come after a tense couple months in Iran as protesters have been targeted for demonstrations in response to the death of MAHSA AMINI.

Some players on the team have used previous matches or their social media accounts as platforms to protest, including Iranian footballer SARDAR AZMOUN, who the regime asked the nation's soccer federation to leave off the roster for speaking in support of women in Iran.

"At worst I’ll be dismissed from the national team," Azmoun wrote on Instagram. "No problem. I’d sacrifice that for one hair on the heads of Iranian women."

Iranian fans who carried the flag of Persia, a symbol of the protest movement, were barred from entering the stadium.

— FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY:JEREMY BERNTON is now White House liaison at the State Department, DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. He most recently was executive secretary at USAID.

— CLEMENTINE STARLING has been named the director of the Atlantic Council’s Forward Defense program. She helped launch the program in 2020.

—SOPHIA BESCH is now in the Europe program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. She was previously a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform in London and Berlin.

—LIANA FIX is now a fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. She was previously the program director on Russia and Eastern Europe at the Körber-Stiftung in Berlin.

—TOM GENTILE was voted as chair of the Aerospace Industries Association’s board of governors. Gentile is the president and CEO of Spirit AeroSystems. TED COLBERT III, the Boeing Company’s EVP, will serve as vice chairman. ERIC FANNING was reelected as AIA’s president and CEO.

— FRANKLIN FOER, The Atlantic: ANTONY BLINKEN on the Diplomatic Niceties of the Beautiful Game

— MAIA SANDU, POLITICO: Europe’s Security is at Stake in Moldova

— OLGA BOICHAK and TETYANA LOKOT, Foreign Policy: Billionaires Won’t Save Ukraine’s Internet

— The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.:"Exploiting Commercial Innovation to Regain Military Advantage: A Conversation with Congressman SETH MOULTON"

— The American Enterprise Institute, 2 p.m.:“Global Discord: A Book Event with PAUL TUCKER”

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at [email protected] to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who has never kept secret her campaign to seize back control of this newsletter.

And we thank our producer, Jeffrey Horst, who is the world’s best secret keeper.