President Trump’s pressure campaign on GOP lawmakers to challenge the Electoral College vote count has thrust a difficult decision onto Republicans eyeing presidential runs in 2024 — and it’s splitting them down the middle. 

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) was first out of the gate saying he’d join House lawmakers in challenging the results.

Hawley’s announcement provoked a blistering response from Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.), another GOP senator seen as a potential presidential contender, who seethed at the “ambitious politicians” he said were engaging in a “dangerous ploy” to subvert democracy.

Days later, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), whose wife and father were insulted by Trump in their bitter 2016 primary battle, spearheaded an effort joined by 11 other GOP senators saying they’d challenge the results. 

But Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), a rising star on the right who is seen as a future presidential contender, has been making the conservative case for why the results should not be challenged, earning a public rebuke from Trump.

Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) have not yet revealed how they’ll vote. Both men lost to Trump in the 2016 primary. Rubio has refashioned himself as a populist battling for poor and middle class Americans, while Paul is a perennial wild card.

The potential contenders insist they’re guided by principle, but many see the decision over the Electoral College challenge as a cold political calculation at a time when polls show a majority of Republicans support Trump and believe there was widespread fraud.

The efforts to disrupt the Electoral College vote count are certain to fail and are likely to be opposed by a majority of Republicans in the Senate, but they’re also a surefire way to win support of Trump and his base. If Trump does not run for president again in 2024, those who fight with him to the bitter end may be best positioned to inherit his support. 

Those who refuse to join the challenge may be shunned by Trump’s supporters. But they might also emerge with their credibility intact if the challenges, which have been roundly rejected by the courts and GOP officials in the contested states, go down as a historic debacle that tarnishes the party. 

“The gamble for those supporting the challenge is whether the short-term political sugar high with the base is worth the potential serious and sustained hit to their credibility with the population as a whole,” said GOP strategist Colin Reed. 

Hawley made the biggest gamble, stepping out on his own as the first GOP senator to say he’d join the rebels in the House to contest the outcome. 

The move has thrust the ambitious first-term senator into the spotlight with mixed results.

Republicans have bashed Hawley for fundraising off his efforts. Fox News Channel’s Bret Baier grilled Hawley in a tense interview Monday night in which the Missouri Republican came under fire for insinuating that Trump could still serve a second term.

But Hawley, who has made a name for himself crusading against Big Tech, has also tied his challenge to that very issue, saying he “cannot vote to certify without pointing out the unprecedented effort of mega corporations, including Facebook and Twitter, to interfere in this election, in support of Joe Biden.”

There are few topics that animate the conservative base more than allegations of bias and censorship by the tech giants, particularly after Twitter and Facebook sought to block the spread of stories about Hunter Biden in the run-up to the election. 

“For Hawley to tie his challenge to Big Tech means a lot,” said Terry Schilling, executive director at the American Principles Project, which has had ads removed by Facebook. “It’s an important issue that will remain a major focus for conservatives.”

Cruz, meanwhile, is calling for a delay in the Electoral College vote count to allow for a 10-day audit of allegations of fraud in the disputed states. He is also fundraising off his efforts.

Sasse, who has repeatedly clashed with Trump, has described the efforts as a purely political way to “tap into the president’s populist base.” 

“Adults don’t point a loaded gun at the heart of legitimate self-government," Sasse said.

The effort to challenge the results has been complicated by Trump’s phone call pressuring Georgia’s secretary of state to “find” enough votes to make him the winner, which shocked many Republicans and might be illegal.

Even Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), who is challenging the results along with Cruz, criticized the call as “unhelpful.”

“Politically, Hawley and Cruz might be on the right side of this, but that doesn’t make it right,” said one former Trump campaign official.

Cotton’s opposition to the Electoral College challenge surprised some, as the Arkansas Republican has been known to defend Trump on issues that others won’t touch.

A Republican operative told The Hill that Cotton had never planned to join the objections because they would be both wrong and futile.

Cotton made his position clear to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) privately last week but he released the statement on Sunday because McConnell asked him to, believing it would set an example for other senators of standing up for the “long-term health" of the Electoral College, the operative said.

Cotton believes there were election irregularities that merit investigation by the new Congress. 

But he has argued that it’s against conservative principles to “federalize” election law; warned that it would put future presidential election results “in the hands of whichever party controls Congress”; and he worries that it will “imperil” the Electoral College. Republicans have only won the popular vote once in the past six elections, but they’ve won the Electoral College vote three times.

“Republicans have no chance of invalidating even a single electoral vote, much less enough votes to deny Joe Biden a majority in the electoral college,” Cotton wrote Tuesday for the Arkansas Democrat Gazette. “Instead, these objections would exceed Congress' constitutional power, while creating unwise precedents that Democrats could abuse the next time they are in power.”

Even some Republicans who support the Electoral College challenge say Cotton has explained his opposition in a way that will resonate with many conservatives.

But Trump fired a warning shot at Cotton over Twitter on Monday, saying that his supporters “never forget.”

Vice President Pence, another potential 2024 contender, also has a tough needle to thread as he presides over Wednesday’s Electoral College vote count.

Pence does not have any authority to override the results, but Trump has been publicly pressuring the vice president to “come through for us.” Trump stated incorrectly Tuesday that Pence “has the power to reject fraudulently chosen electors.” The Constitution does not give him that power. 

National Republicans are deeply frustrated by the efforts to challenge the Electoral College vote, which have divided the party. They’re worried the spectacle could turn off moderate swing voters the GOP is trying to win back.

Veteran GOP strategist Charlie Black said “the whole idea of contesting the election now for two months” has already alienated many people.

“The challenge to the Electoral College vote on Wednesday is really just the grace note,” Black said. 

Morgan Chalfant contributed.