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Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) didn’t withdraw his Yemen War Powers Resolution Tuesday night just because of guarantees from the White House. He simply didn’t have the votes, lawmakers, congressional aides and activists supportive of the measure told NatSec Daily.

In a statement explaining his decision, Sanders said, “the Biden administration agreed to continue working with my office on ending the war in Yemen.” President JOE BIDEN’s team was opposed to the measure and lobbied against it, citing concerns that punishing the Saudi-led coalition — which earlier this year agreed to a ceasefire that’s tenuously holding — might cause bombs to fall again.

Postponing the vote to working on compromise legislation, then, was worth it to Sanders. And if it didn’t pay off, he vowed to bring the resolution up for a vote again “in the near future,” a move that would surely be backed once again by more than 100 antiwar and progressive groups.

But that’s not the whole story. A big reason Sanders didn’t put the resolution on the floor was that he hadn’t secured a 51-vote majority.

“The votes weren’t there,” Rep. RO KHANNA (D-Calif.), who worked closely with Sanders on a Yemen war powers resolution in 2019, told NatSec Daily in a Wednesday interview.

“It was going to be close, we weren’t sure, and Sanders didn’t roll the dice last night,” said HASSAN EL-TAYYAB, a pro-resolution lobbyist at the Friends Committee on National Legislation antiwar group. “There was uncertainty and no guarantee he had them.”

Sanders’ office and his allies on the measure were counting votes until the last moments, in some cases urging reporters to press senators on their stances. But the picture started to darken for the Vermont lawmaker once it appeared both Democratic California senators would vote “no.”

At the same time, Sens. JACK REED (D-R.I.) and BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.), who respectively chair the chamber’s Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees, were upset that Sanders’ team made major substantive changes to the 2022 version from the 2019 iteration, another senior Democratic Senate aide said.

The biggest change was redefining “hostilities” to now include intelligence sharing. Another was to say U.S. logistical support for the war also included providing spare parts and the maintenance of coalition warplanes.

“Everything about this was different than in 2019,” said that staffer, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive negotiation. Making matters worse, the lawmakers heard of Sanders' intention to put the resolution up for a vote from a report last week in the Intercept, not from Sanders' office, the aide continued. (Sanders initially introduced the measure in July.)

“There were significant changes to the 2019 bill which were not communicated in a timely manner. The natsec committee leaders would have needed to vote against it,” the first Democratic Senate aide said.

So even with Republicans like Sens. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) and MIKE LEE (R-Utah) aboard, it wasn’t clear that at least 51 senators would support the resolution. “Sanders walked around the floor sullenly while he grappled with the reality of not having the votes,” a senior Republican Senate aide told NatSec Daily.

Asked about our reporting, a Sanders aide said that the senator has gone to the floor with legislation without having the votes many times, pointing to occasions when his amendments failed 99-1. “The resolution going forward was not tied to him having the votes or not,” the aide said.

Still, Sanders took the deal from the administration. Instead of forcing Biden’s hand on Yemen, Sanders will now work with him — at least for the time being.

“We obviously want to make sure that we are setting up the success for future diplomatic resolution to this war. We all want to see that being the case, and I know Sen. Sanders feels the same way,” said National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY, though he declined to wade into how a Sanders-administration deal came to be.

THE NEXT SECURITY THREATS: You’re in for a treat today. Our talented NatSec team put out a package of magazine stories they’ve been working on for weeks detailing — you guessed it — security threats to watch out for in the near future. Take out your pen and notepad:

PAUL McLEARYdetails four startling ways China is challenging the United States, from its military footprint overseas to its unrelenting grip on the social media platform TikTok. While tensions between the world powers on Taiwan and militarization have been clear for years, “other aspects of China’s quest for power are much more subtle,” he writes.

LEE HUDSON explains that what you think are the biggest threats to national security, probably aren’t. The pandemic made it clear that non-traditional security threats, a.k.a. hazards not created by the military, need to be seriously considered. It’s not just deadly viruses, either. Think climate change, irregular migration and food and energy insecurity, or disinformation and technology like artificial intelligence and quantum computing coming out of the private sector.

LARA SELIGMANprofiles the only rare earths mine in the United States, in the Clark Mountain Range in California. The mine, which provides 15 percent of the world’s production of the minerals — used to build critical military technology — is at the forefront of the United States’ push to curb China’s dominance on the rare earths market.

THE STRUGGLE TO TRACK U.S. AID: American officials are getting creative with their methods of tracking billions of dollars in U.S. weapons and aid that has flowed into Ukraine, according to a State Department cable obtained by our own NAHAL TOOSI and BRYAN BENDER.

In addition to using blockchain technology and Ukrainian soldiers, the Biden administration plans to tap a still-unnamed U.S. firm by February to implement a special three-year initiative to help the oversight effort, according to the “sensitive but unclassified” document.

The Sept. 6 cable from the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv is blunt in describing the challenges facing U.S. officials trying to watch every penny as Russian drones and missiles bombard Ukrainian cities. There are, for instance, severe limits on the number of American officials in the field and a number of security constraints on their movements.

The cable comes to light as Republicans are increasingly calling for more vetting of the money and weapons flowing to Ukraine. It also comes as Russia ramps up its attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, making it even harder to account for what’s already poured in of the more than $50 billion the United States has committed to Ukraine.

RUSSIAN DRONES SHOT DOWN: Ukrainian officials said their air defense system prevented a potentially large-scale Russian attack on Kyiv and the surrounding region on Wednesday, intercepting and destroying 13 drones equipped with explosives, the Associated Press’ HANNA ARHIROVA and JAMEY KEATEN report.

Wreckage from the drones damaged five buildings, but no casualties were reported. Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said they were Iranian-made drones — the type that have been used in past months to bombard his country.

The failed offensive highlights how critical air defense systems have been to Ukraine and its troops’ increased efficiency at intercepting drones. Air defenses will be boosted further as the U.S. is likely to send a Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine in the coming weeks.

WAHL DIED FROM ‘AORTIC ANEURYSM’: U.S. soccer journalist GRANT WAHL’s death in Qatar was the result of an ‘aortic aneurysm,” his wife CÉLINE GOUNDER wrote Wednesday.

“Grant died from the rupture of a slowly growing, undetected ascending aortic aneurysm with hemopericardium. The chest pressure he experienced shortly before his death may have represented the initial symptoms. No amount of CPR or shocks would have saved him,” Gounder wrote on Wahl’s blog, adding: “There was nothing nefarious about his death.”

The result from an autopsy by the New York City medical examiner’s office ends a nearly week-long mystery about how Wahl, who was in his late 40s and fit, died so suddenly.

The State Department worked with its Qatari counterparts to repatriate Wahl’s body Monday.

Gounder said a memorial service is currently being planned, with details forthcoming.

IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [email protected] and [email protected], and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

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RUSSIAN BOMBERS PATROL SEA OF JAPAN: Two Russian strategic bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons patrolled the Sea of Japan for seven hours, Russia’s defense ministry said Wednesday, Reuters reports.

The Tu-95 bombers, which were accompanied by SU-class fighter jets, were part of regular flights Russia has continued to conduct in a show of force to its neighbors in the region.

In November, Moscow carried out joint patrols with Beijing over the Sea of Japan and East China Sea, highlighting a growing military cooperation between the two nations.

CYBER BESTIES: Ukraine’s lead cybersecurity agency views Estonia as “one of our key partners and allies” for cyber and digitization efforts, both of which have become crucial during the ongoing war with Russia, our friends over at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) report.

“Estonia is an example of cyber resilience and countering Russian cyber aggression,” MARYNA SOBOTIUK, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection, told Maggie following her story last week on how Estonia is helping Ukraine combat cyberattacks from Russia.

“We are always in touch with our Estonian colleagues,” Sobotiuk said. “We have worked out an efficient exchange of information on cyber threats that has its positive impact not only on our own cyber resilience, but global security in general. As I have said multiple times, global partnership is a key factor of our resilience.”

SPACE FORCES IN KOREA: The U.S. Space Force launched a unit in South Korea, its first command on foreign soil, CNN’s BRAD LENDON reports.

The new branch will coordinate position navigation and timing, satellite communications and missile warnings in the region, U.S. Forces Korea said in a statement. It comes shortly after North Korea’s persistent rocket launches in response to joint military operations held between the U.S. and South Korea.

The unit, the United States’ first official post on the peninsula, further strengthens military ties between the allies.

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– KHANNA URGES MORE IRAN PRESSURE: The U.S. should raise the pressure on the Iranian regime by enforcing financial restrictions at home and Americans send money to family members in Iran, Rep. Khanna wrote in a Wednesday letter to Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN and Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN.

He outlines four recommendations: Stop Iran’s rulers from “living lives of luxury abroad,” help “facilitate remittances” from Americans to Iran, help keep the Internet open and running in Iran and boost assistance to Iranians fleeing persecution, including Iranian soccer players.

The Biden administration has said it will stand by demonstrators, though senior U.S. officials, including Director of National Intelligence AVRIL HAINES, have said it’s unlikely the regime will be toppled by the woman-led unrest.

Khanna, a member of the House Armed Services Committee, said his four suggestions come from speaking with his constituents “who want to do everything possible to stand with the protesters.”

To start, the U.S. could enforce laws already on the books through some creative methods. “One concrete suggestion would be the State Department could create a place where people could provide tips of laws that are being violated, and then there could be coordination between Treasury, State and Justice to make sure that that's not happening,” Khanna told NatSec Daily in our Wednesday interview.

The State Department doesn’t comment on private correspondence with lawmakers.

IRAN OUSTED FROM WOMEN’S RIGHTS PANEL: Iran was kicked off a United Nations panel that promotes women’s rights today, following a push from the U.S. in response to the country’s crackdown on protests, Nahal also reports.

The resolution to oust Iran from the Commission on the Status of Women passed with 29 votes in favor and eight against, and overall it is a win for the Biden administration against a long-time adversary.

Yet of the 54 countries eligible to vote, at least 16 abstained — a sign of the wariness about setting a precedent of the U.S. dictating who’s deserving of U.N. panel memberships. Nonetheless, the overall vote was the latest international embarrassment for Iran’s Islamist regime as it has faced an extraordinary challenge to its rule.

‘MANIACS WHO ENJOY KILLING’: A Russian defector who says he served in the unit accused of committing war crimes in Bucha called some of his former colleagues “maniacs who enjoy killing.”

NIKITA CHIBRIN’s unit, the 64th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, had a “direct command to murder” anyone who might give away its postion, he told CNN Wednesday. “If someone had a phone — we were allowed to shoot them.”

“There are maniacs who enjoy killing a man. Such maniacs turned up there,” he said.

Chibrin also alleged that his commanders didn’t fully punish troops who raped Ukrainians or looted.

Russia has denied committing any war crimes since its invasion began in February. The U.S. is working with Ukraine to record all possible war crimes by Moscow’s forces ahead of tribunals that Kyiv desperately wants.

— J. LUIS RODRIGUEZ will join George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government as an assistant professor in the fall of 2023. Rodriguez is currently a postdoctoral fellow at Stanford University.

— DUGAN ARNETT, HANNA KRUEGER and BRENDAN McCARTHY, The Boston Globe: Like a plot from ‘The Americans’: An alleged Russian smuggling ring found in N.H. town

— HAL BRANDS, Bloomberg: Is Putin Finally Getting Smart About His Ukraine Disaster?

— JONATHAN GUYER, Vox: Inside the chaos at Washington’s most connected military tech startup

— The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 9 a.m.: Rethinking South Korea's Security

— The Brookings Institution, 10 a.m.:5G is Smart. Now Let's Make it Secure

— The Brookings Institution, 11:30 a.m.:Ukraine's Economy: Today's Challenges, Tomorrow's Needs, and Lessons from Past Reconstruction Efforts

— The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 11:30 a.m.:"Is Russia-Ukraine a Forever War?"

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at [email protected] to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who continues to whip votes to impeach us from this newsletter.

And we thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who is a solid “no” vote on that resolution.