The very real and very scary decline in credit
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CRUNCH TIME — The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank did not — as widely feared last month — completely tank the U.S. economy or lead to widespread contagion in the financial sector.
But the crisis did help further tighten access to credit, especially for small businesses, leading some economists to fear that a lending “crunch” could help tip the U.S. toward recession later this year.
That would be especially unwelcome news for President Joe Biden and the White House, since they will also have to deal this summer with House Republicans, led by Speaker Kevin McCarthy, intent on winning spending cuts in return for any increase in the U.S. debt limit. Wall Street still thinks the White House and Hill Republicans will make a deal to avoid a potentially catastrophic default sometime this summer. But the path there is not at all obvious.
And the decline in credit — while not quite warranting panic yet — is very real.
In the final two weeks of March, bank lending dropped $105 billion, according to Federal Reserve numbers, the largest single plunge on record. Much of the damage in the final week of the month came from a decline in real estate and other commercial loans from small banks.
The National Federation of Independent Businesses said last week that the percentage of small business owners reporting difficulty in accessing credit hit the highest level since 2012.
Some of this contracting credit was already underway, courtesy of multiple rate hikes from the Fed aimed at attacking persistent inflation by slowing overall economic activity. To a degree, the Fed wants to see so-called “financial conditions” — such as bank lending — tighten. But the banking crisis accelerated the pace of lenders pulling back, sending at least a few tremors through financial circles and freaking out many Democrats.
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, among the first to warn that post-pandemic inflation would be a long-running nightmare, recently upped his recession odds for the U.S. this year, in part because of credit tightening.
“The chance that a recession will have begun this year in the U.S. over the next 12 months is probably about 70 percent,” Summers said in an interview with Foreign Policy magazine. “As I put together the lags associated with monetary policy, the credit crunch risks, the need for continuing action around inflation, the risk of geo-political or other shocks affecting commodities, 70 percent would be the range that I would be in.”
That puts Summers on the gloomier side of most economic forecasters. And there are at least some signs that the credit decline will not become a true crunch of the kind that devastated the economy after the 2008 financial crisis.
In the first week of April, bank lending ticked back up a bit and bank deposits rose by $60.7 billion after five straight weeks of outflows totalling over $500 billion, according to figures from Yardeni Research, an economic research firm.
And at least for the moment, Wall Street investors continue to bet on the Fed bumping up rates perhaps just one more time this year then eventually slashing them again at the first sign of recession. For now, Wall Street views the credit contraction as mostly helping the Fed achieve its goals without multiple future rate hikes.
But it would not take much — a debt limit debacle or another banking sector meltdown perhaps — to restart the credit freeze and finally bring down an economy that has thus far proved remarkably resilient and defied all predictions of its imminent demise.
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— McCarthy seeks to reassure Wall Street on stalled debt talks: Speaker Kevin McCarthy took to Wall Street today in his latest effort to rally the GOP around a single strategy to lift the debt limit. The speaker repeatedly blamed Biden and Democrats for driving higher inflation through excess spending, reiterating that any hike in the debt limit should be offset by significant spending cuts. He said Republicans would pass their own bill within weeks but offered no further details on which cuts his conference wants to see.
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FAKE TREASON — A Russian court today slapped opposition activist Vladimir Kara-Murza with 25 years in prison for treason and other alleged offenses, write Eva Hartog and Wilhelmine Preussen.
Moscow City Court sentenced Kara-Murza to a penal colony for spreading “fake news” about the army and “cooperation with an undesirable organization,” as Russian President Vladimir Putin steps up his crackdown on dissent and Russian civil society. But the bulk of his sentence had to do with another, third charge: treason, which marks the first time anyone has been convicted on that count for making public statements containing publicly available information.
On the courthouse steps, British Ambassador Deborah Bronnert called the sentence for Kara-Murza, who holds both Russian and British citizenship, “shocking.” Her U.S. counterpart said the verdict was an attempt “to silence dissent in this country.”
The U.K. summoned the Russian ambassador after the conviction, with Foreign Secretary James Cleverly calling for Kara-Murza’s “immediate release.”
Upon traveling to Russia in April 2022, Kara-Murza was detained for disobeying police orders. From that moment the charges piled up: first for spreading “fake news” about the Russian armed forces, then for his participation in an “undesirable organization,” and last for treason, on account of three public speeches he gave in the U.S., Finland and Portugal. The charges, all of which Kara-Murza denies, were expanded to treason last October.
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