The Biden administration is betting big on companies’ ability to snatch up greenhouse gases from power plants before they can warm the Earth.

EPA’s proposal to slash climate pollution from power plants is expected Thursday. It could set limits so stringent that coal- and gas-burning plants must either capture their pollution as it’s released or shut down altogether, as my colleagues have reported in recent weeks.

EPA says carbon capture is a market-ready technology, but only one power plant in the world is using it at scale — in Canada. And energy analysts have concerns about mass deployment, especially when it comes to capturing pollution from natural gas plants, which could be especially expensive, Brian Dabbs, Carlos Anchondo and Christa Marshall write.

Plus, the majority of captured carbon today is used as a kind of lubricant for oil production, leaving environmentalists worried that the technology could perpetuate fossil fuel use.

The administration says it intends for the bulk of future captured carbon to be permanently stored underground — raising other potential environmental concerns, such as earthquakes.

A history: The sole large carbon capture effort operating at a U.S. power plant was the Petra Nova project near Houston. It shut down in 2020 due to a pandemic-related plunge in oil prices. While numerous planned projects have arisen in the last 15 years, all failed to go anywhere.

One reason is cost. Plus, there’s no economic penalty for simply letting your carbon dioxide waft into the atmosphere.

“For a long time, it was a difficult industry because you were capturing something that was free to emit. It is always more expensive to capture CO2 than release it,” said Adam Goff, senior vice president for strategy at 8 Rivers Capital, a developer of carbon capture technologies. “There wasn’t really a business case.”

Changing the game: Billions of dollars in last year’s climate law, coupled with EPA’s upcoming rules — not to mention a smattering of pledges from fossil fuel companies to bring their net carbon emissions to zero — could change all that.

The U.S. has more than a dozen proposed capture projects, including several with target start dates before 2030 — though none have started construction yet.

Concerns remain: The challenge for carbon capture developers is not just the cost of retrofitting power plants with the technology, but also transporting the greenhouse gas — typically through a pipeline — to its ultimate resting place.

Siting pipelines is a massive regulatory undertaking, and communities are already resisting the idea of having carbon stored nearby. Landowners, also hesitant, are pushing for greater federal accountability in case injecting millions of tons of CO2 into the earth fouls their groundwater, triggers earthquakes or otherwise causes problems.

It’s Wednesday — thank you for tuning in to POLITICO’s Power Switch. I’m your host, Arianna Skibell. Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to [email protected].

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Today in POLITICO Energy’s podcast: Allison Prang breaks down why President Joe Biden’s carbon capture plan is facing pushback from some environmental justice groups.

Sen. Joe Manchin said he will block all of Biden’s pending nominees to EPA until the federal body agrees to “halt their government overreach,” writes Emma Dumain.

The West Virginia Democrat and chair of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee is particularly frustrated with a recent EPA proposal to sharply reduce tailpipe emissions and hasten the transition to electric vehicles.

Manchin’s protest puts at least two agency picks in limbo in a narrowly divided Senate.

Gauge the voters
Republicans are casting Biden’s spate of climate rules as an attack on the fossil fuel industry that could hurt energy reliability, in the hopes that voters will turn against Democrats in upcoming Senate elections, writes Josh Siegel.

The bet hinges on the premise that voters’ sentiment will match the electoral mood of 2010, when Republicans wiped out Democrats up and down the ballot by charging that then-President Barack Obama was waging a “war on coal.” But many Democrats say the GOP is the party out of step with voters who want more action on climate change.

Climate costs
Huge price increases for flood insurance could cause hundreds of thousands of homeowners to cancel their policies and risk financial ruin, writes Thomas Frank.

FEMA, which runs the United States’ largest flood insurance program, recently published projections showing that its premiums are on track to jump by thousands of dollars a year in some areas.

Energy futures: Microsoft is betting that fusion power is closer than many think.

A different take: The nationalist dark side of Biden’s climate policies.

A showcase of some of our best subscriber content.

New research has revealed an unexpected consequence of climate change. Some crabs are losing their sense of smell.

The Energy Department has launched a program to speed construction of high-capacity power lines linking urban areas to prime solar and wind energy resources.

The Senate Commerce Committee approved a bipartisan rail safety bill Wednesday, moving forward with just two Republican senators voting against the committee’s top Republican.

That’s it for today, folks! Thanks for reading.