Good morning and welcome to Election Day.

The outcome of a special election in Central Florida today kicks off a contest that will test Republicans’ dominance in the state and whether Democrats can claw certain districts back to swing status.

Democrats see the election for state House District 35 as a potential pickup seat, given that President Joe Biden won it by roughly five points in 2020 and Democrats still out-register Republicans in the area, which includes Orange and Osceola counties. The seat was left vacant after Gov. Ron DeSantis tapped GOP Rep. Fred Hawkins to be president of South Florida State College.

The winner won’t be declared until the general election on January 16, 2024 — the day after the Iowa Caucuses and more than a week into Florida’s legislative session — but today’s primary picks will help define top issues in the race and immediately set off attention and campaign cash. Both sides have non-affiliated voters in their sights for the general election.

For today’s primary, six candidates — three from each party (more on them below) — are vying to be the nominee for the seat. Party leaders on both side say the fact that it’s competitive shows what a hot ticket it is.

Democrats hope that by January they’ll be able to claim a similar victory as when Mayor Donna Deegan prevailed in Jacksonville in May, which they’ll view as a sign of momentum, said Samuel Vilchez Santiago, chair for Orange County Democrats.

Republicans and Democrats are struggling with low voter turnout during this off-year election. They’re also dealing with new voting laws, which require people who want to vote by mail to re-request ballots. Leading up to Election Day, GOP organizers were “doing the ballot chase” to make sure that voters who hadn’t mailed in their ballots knew they either needed to go to the supervisor of elections or surrender their ballot to their precinct to vote in person, said George Jackow, state committeeman for the Osceola GOP.

“We would love to maintain the seat; it’s in a district where there are a lot of families,” said Erin Huntley, Orange County GOP chair, adding that she thought the voter cohort would find state GOP lawmakers’ push on school vouchers, tax cuts and parental rights attractive.

Democratic organizers sent text messages to voters yesterday to remind them to get to the polls, Santiago said. “A lot of what happens tomorrow might define what we see in January,” he said, explaining that property insurance fears and concerns over abortion rights were driving Democratic-leaning voters.

No matter who ultimately wins the seat, it could potentially be short lived. The victor will have to compete again in November 2024 — when it looks like Donald Trump and Biden will lead the top of the ticket and probably shake up the race. In 2022, a DeSantis blowout helped carry Hawkins to a 10-point victory.

— WHERE’S RON? Gov. DeSantis has a meet-and-greet campaign event in Davenport, Iowa, with Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds at 10 a.m. (Tune in.)

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OPENING DAY — The GOP-majority Legislature rejected Democrats’ bills on affordable housing, property insurance, gun violence and expanding Medicaid, reported the South Florida Sun Sentinel’s Jeffrey Schweers.

REGULAR SESSION AGENDA — Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nuñez hinted over the weekend that Florida might extend its rebate program for drivers who frequently use tolls, reports News Service of Florida. The program — which gives people rebates when they cross 35 or more tolls a month — is otherwise set to expire on Dec. 31.

PUSHING BACK — Senator tells Georgia-Pacific not to look for handout in disaster relief advanced Monday,reports POLITICO’s Bruce Ritchie. The company closed its pulp mill and laid off more than 500 employees in September, economically devastating Taylor County and its timber industry. Georgia-Pacific said the decision was made before the hurricane hit, but the company would appear to qualify for tax breaks in the legislation for its damaged plant and equipment (that revelation was first reported by Jason Garcia of Seeking Rents).

“This bill in no way is to benefit a company that has left my district destitute,” state Sen. Corey Simon (R-Tallahassee) said. “Georgia-Pacific took not only the 500 or so jobs from the local factory folks that worked there, but the thousands of jobs that have [been] impacted by their closing.”

PASSED OUT OF COMMITTEE — “Grants for security for Jewish schools in FL could be extended to historically Black colleges,” reported Florida Phoenix’s Christian Casale. Lawmakers unanimously accepted an amendment in committee to “double the amount of funding from $10 million to $20 million to implement security grants to places such as schools, museums, and community centers.”

SCHOOL CHOICE — Florida moves to create more private school vouchers as operational concerns linger, reports POLITICO’s Andrew Atterbury. Florida lawmakers unanimously backed legislation Monday that would open the door for thousands of additional special needs students to receive state-funded vouchers for private schooling, setting the proposals up for final votes in the coming days.

The measures stand to benefit nearly 8,900 students or possibly more by eliminating — at least for now — a cap on participation for one of the state’s key scholarship programs.

NEW FEATURE — What’s it like for young people living under Florida’s conservative policies? The “Red Tide” series from Teen Vogue and Lex McMenamin examines transgender rights, changes at colleges and what teens want DeSantis to know.

TODAY — A new pilot program is being unveiled at 9 a.m. in Tampa to provide Mort Elementary School in Hillsborough County with a full-time, bilingual therapist who will work with students suffering from trauma and anxiety. Health insurer Aetna is paying for the program with a $20,000 grant and the school will share data with the Department of Education to see whether the program should be replicated elsewhere.

The announcement comes as childhood mental health has been a focus for Florida first lady Casey DeSantis and as the Legislature gears up to work on mental health policy during the general session. School board members and Hillsborough county’s superintendent, as well as school board candidate Layla Collins, the wife of state Sen. Jay Collins, will attend.

CANCELED — Doubletree by Hilton Hotel Orlando at SeaWorld canceled a gathering slated for last weekend that was intended to celebrate Arab culture and identity. Warren David, co-founder of the Arab America Foundation, told Playbook hotel representatives told him they’d received calls asking about the event, but didn’t describe the nature of the inquiries, including whether they’d been threatening.

The group was set to host its fourth annual gathering, expecting roughly 250 attendees, 30 speakers and 26 sponsors. Organizers had spent months planning, long before anyone knew what would happen in Israel and Gaza.

One event panel was set to focus on discrimination and media rhetoric, and another was on mental wellness. The Arab American Foundation made some alterations for the Empowerment Summit, including canceling a musical event to maintain a somber tone in recognition of the war in the Middle East.

David said before the cancellation, he’d called the police to survey the area and make sure there weren’t any safety concerns. The sheriff’s office made recommendations about hiring a handful of security personnel, but said there was no reason not to proceed, David said. “We feel that we have been wronged,” he said. “We feel hurt.”

A hotel representative said the facility canceled the event “due exclusively to safety concerns that arose following conversations with law enforcement” but that it would work with the Arab America Foundation to find a solution, including possibly rebooking the event later.

TODAY — Voters will cast ballots in parts of south and central Florida.

HOUSE DISTRICT 35, CONT: The six candidates for the seat are: Republicans Erika Booth, a member of the Osceola County School Board; Scotty Moore, the former director of a Christian nonprofit; and Ken Davenport, a flight attendant and former probation officer.

The Democrats vying for the nomination are Rishi Bagga, a civil attorney who was the nominee for the seat in 2022; Marucci Guzmán, the executive director of Latino Leadership; and Tom Keen, a member of Orlando’s Citizens’ Police Review Board and Veteran Advisory Council.

TOMORROW — GOP presidential debate in Miami at the Adrienne Arsht Center, where five candidates have qualified to be onstage. Trump will be holding a rally across town in blue-collar, Hispanic-majority Hialeah. Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders will endorse her former boss that night, reported POLITICO’s Alex Isenstadt.

BIG GET — DeSantis, trailing Trump, seeks spark in Iowa with Gov. Kim Reynolds endorsement, reports POLITICO’s Sally Goldenberg. Endorsements in presidential races do not always move the needle, and the effect of Reynolds’ nod to DeSantis is hard to gauge. But within the political class in Iowa, it is likely to have some resonance.

A Republican consultant who works in Iowa and is familiar with Reynolds and DeSantis said the two struck up a friendship as they rejected federal lockdown guidance during Covid-19. The consultant, granted anonymity to speak freely about internal matters, said Reynolds called former U.N Ambassador Nikki Haley over the weekend to let her know she was preparing to endorse DeSantis.

ALWAYS A FLORIDA MAN, NEVER A PRESIDENT — Trump and DeSantis are vying to be the first Floridians in history to occupy the White House, reports Brendan Farrington of The Associated Press. “While Florida is home to Disney World’s Hall of Presidents, that’s not the place to look for representation from the nation’s third-largest state. And even if home court advantage gives DeSantis an opening to talk about his accomplishments in the Sunshine State, there’s no historical evidence to suggest it will help him in the race itself.”

EYES ON ‘26 — Florida first lady Casey DeSantis has a plurality of support to run for governor after her husband’s term ends, according to a poll out this morning from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab. While 40 percent of respondents said they didn’t know or wouldn’t answer who their early favorite was, Casey DeSantis got 20 percent support, ahead of U.S. Reps. Matt Gaetz and Byron Donalds, who tied at 9 percent.

‘ULTRA MAGA’ — “Steve Bannon and other Trumpworld figures are encouraging longtime Breitbart writer Matt Boyle to mount a primary challenge to U.S. Rep. John Rutherford, who opposed Jim Jordan’s speakership,” reports Semafor’s Morgan Chalfant and Kadia Goba.

DWS — U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz condemned Democratic colleague Rashida Tlaib’s ‘river to the sea’ comment about Israel and Jews, reports the Orlando Sentinel’s Anthony Man. “This phrase means eradicating Israel and Jews. Period. Dressing it up in a new PR ploy won’t change that. Only a return of hostages, eliminating Hamas and liberating Gaza from oppressive terror will save civilian lives and secure the peace, justice and dignity you seek,” Wasserman Schultz wrote.

Related, per Axios’ Andrew Solender: “A group of pro-Israel Jewish Democrats is taking a big step toward establishing a formal congressional Jewish caucus — but the idea is being met with skepticism from some of their more progressive colleagues.”

BIRTHDAYS: Jenn Meale Poggie of Pinnacle Media