With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

SPOTTED: Former New Jersey Gov. CHRIS CHRISTIE speaking to more than three dozen of his former staffers and advisors about a possible 2024 presidential run last night at Mission in Dupont Circle. “If we go forward, we want all of you to be with us,” Christie told the room. “Thank you to all of you for everything you’ve already done for us. It’s been really, really an amazing ride. And you know what? It might not just be over yet.”

NEW ALEX BURNS COLUMN — “America’s Looming Conflict: Red Judges vs. Blue Governors: As conservative judges strike down liberal policies, state lawmakers are left to decide how to get around adverse rulings.”

CHECKS AND BALANCES — “Senate Dems weighing a Clarence Thomas invite to future Supreme Court ethics hearing,” by Katherine Tully-McManus and Burgess Everett

DEMS’ LABOR PAINS — President JOE BIDEN’s first Cabinet-level confirmation battle in more than a year is set to kick off in earnest this week, with JULIE SU — his pick to succeed departed Labor Secretary MARTY WALSH — set to appear Thursday before the Senate HELP Committee for a hearing on her nomination.

The dynamics surrounding Su’s nomination are straightforward and awfully familiar to those who followed the Cabinet battles early in the Biden administration: Republicans are in lockstep against Biden’s pick, meaning Democrats have to stick together to get it through.

Su, as it happens, has already squeaked through a Senate confirmation — winning the votes of all 50 Democratic caucus members in July 2021 to secure her current post as deputy Labor secretary. But because context is everything in politics, she can’t necessarily count on some of the votes she won last time.

Three of Su’s past supporters — Sens. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.), KYRSTEN SINEMA (I-Ariz.) and JON TESTER (D-Mont.) — are now in cycle and are withholding, for now, their support for a promotion. Manchin, in particular, has telegraphed reservations about Su to the administration and made skeptical comments to reporters. (“My vote for her last time was all predicated on Marty,” Manchin told POLITICO last month.)

Put simply, Su faces a political minefield. Republicans and their business-world allies have unleashed fierce attacks on Su’s record as California’s state labor chief. Democrats, meanwhile, argue she made the right enemies by moving aggressively on behalf of workers. But any weakness could give the politically vulnerable Dems an opening to spurn Su and create some distance from an unpopular president.

Enter the White House and its allies, who kicked off a full court press this week in hopes of keeping Democrats united. The AFL-CIO yesterday convened a meeting to rally its 60 affiliate unions and finalize a plan to support Su’s nomination, while the White House is working to also underscore her relationships with the business community — circulating a new letter, for instance, from minority business groups endorsing Su.

The administration, meanwhile, is pushing a message calibrated for Democratic senators: If you voted for her before, there’s no good reason not to vote for her again.

White House surrogates are being told to push two points in particular: (1) Su has proven herself as deputy secretary over the last two years and (2) if you liked Marty Walsh, you’ll be pleased with Su, who plans to keep pushing similar policies.

Su herself has been making the rounds on Capitol Hill, and she has offered a meeting to every senator on the HELP Committee, according to a White House official familiar with the outreach plan.

Just yesterday, Sen. TIM KAINE (D-Va.) endorsed Su after a private sitdown: “The job creation stats since the beginning of the Biden Administration have been very positive, and Julie has been there for all of it,” he said

Also yesterday, Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER expressed cautious optimism, calling Su “a great nominee” and saying he was “very hopeful” about her confirmation.

But all it could take is one peevish senator to upend Su’s confirmation. That may not be true as a matter of arithmetic — even with Sen. DIANNE FEINSTEIN (D-Calif.) out indefinitely, a single Dem holdout could still allow for a 49-49 tie broken by VP KAMALA HARRIS. But as a matter of politics, it’s easy to see one defection becoming two — or more.

That’s why it’s mystifying to some Hill watchers that Su, we’re told, has yet to meet with Manchin.

“Nothing matters until he sits down with her,” a person close to Manchin who is familiar with his deliberations. “A nominee like that, he’s going to be 50/50 until he sits down and meets with her. And then he’s going to call every labor person he’s close with. But the AFL sending out a letter, he just doesn’t care about that. They don’t have a huge presence in West Virginia.”

But there are union leaders who can be persuasive to Manchin — including United Mine Workers President CECIL ROBERTS, who strongly backed Su in a Friday letter, as well as American Federation of Teachers President RANDI WEINGARTEN, a close friend of Manchin and his wife, GAYLE.

“Get in there right away, because if he has a problem, you have time to fix it,” the person added. “You have time for Randi and Cecil and everybody else to weigh in. But if you get in there three days before the vote, then no.”

Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

2024 WATCH

THE SHADOW PRIMARY — “Trump remains silent on DeSantis’ six-week abortion ban,” by NBC’s Natasha Korecki and Jonathan Allen: “On Monday, a Trump adviser said the six-week abortion ban has been a topic of internal discussion ever since it became clear the law was about to be enacted. Aides, however, say they don’t want to get ahead of Trump on the subject, with a spokesman saying, ‘He will address it if he is asked about it.’”

DeSANTIS VS. DISNEY — “DeSantis leans on GOP-controlled Legislature to thwart Disney,” by Gary Fineout in Tallahassee, Fla.: “DeSantis, a likely presidential contender for 2024, on Monday announced that the GOP-controlled Legislature will attempt to change state law to subject the company theme parks to new inspections of its rides and famed monorail in the final three weeks of its annual session.”

The politics: “Pence Criticizes DeSantis for Escalating Disney Battle Ahead of 2024,” by Bloomberg’s Mark Niquette

MORE POLITICS

GROWING PAINS — “Republicans worry the Club for Growth could cost them the Senate,” by Ally Mutnick: “The Club is positioning itself against the National Republican Senatorial Committee in the three states that are most key to retaking the majority: West Virginia, Montana and Ohio. … The fear is that, at best, the group is creating unnecessarily messy primaries. At worst it is blowing another shot at retaking the majority.”

SHOT — “George Santos launches 2024 reelection bid,” by Kelly Garrity

CHASER — NBC’s @sahilkapur: Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY “asked if he will support George Santos for re-election, laughs and says: ‘We’ll wait and see who else files.’”

LEADER OF THE PAC — “Pediatrician launches new PAC focused on children,” by Roll Call’s Daniela Altimari: “The group, ‘Their Future, Our Vote,’ will advocate for measures that address climate change, gun violence, childhood poverty and voting rights, among other issues.”

THE WHITE HOUSE

DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — “Divided Biden administration nears agreement on key China trade rules,” by Gavin Bade: “The developments come at a particularly delicate moment for the administration, which has been trying to smooth tensions and maintain trade ties with Beijing as both economies teeter on the brink of recession.”

THE SHUFFLE BOARD — “Joint Chiefs shuffle: Biden’s top contenders to replace Trump’s military leaders,” by Lara Seligman and Connor O’Brien: “As many as five members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the eight most senior uniformed leaders who advise the president on military issues, are scheduled to leave their assignments this year. Besides the Joint Chiefs chair, the heads of the Army, Navy, Marine Corps and potentially the Air Force are all set to leave. Three of the military’s top operational commanders are changing over as well.”

CONGRESS

DEMS’ DIFI DILEMMA — As previewed in yesterday’s Playbook, Senate Republicans balked en masse at the suggestions that Feinstein could be temporarily replaced on the Judiciary Committee as she continues her recovery from shingles. Among those objecting are GOP Sens. SUSAN COLLINS (Maine), BILL CASSIDY (La.), JOHN CORNYN (Texas), THOM TILLIS (N.C.) and JONI ERNST (Iowa). Schumer said he was planning to bring a resolution to the floor this week — but the math makes for a steep hurdle that Dems would have to clear and a virtual standstill for confirming judicial nominees. More from Burgess Everett and Katherine Tully-McManus

INSIDE THE NEW GOP — “House GOP puts on united front as conflict brews behind the scenes,” by WaPo’s Marianna Sotomayor and Leigh Ann Caldwell: At a McCarthy-hosted “boot camp” on fiscal issues in February, “some Republicans toyed with the idea of blocking an increase in the debt ceiling to get what they wanted to balance a budget — equating defaulting on the national debt as a similar tactic to shutting down the government, which is something most Republicans, including McCarthy, don’t want.”

BACK IN ACTION — Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL is back in the Capitol after recovering from a concussion, AP’s Mary Clare Jalonick writes: “In brief remarks on the Senate floor as the chamber came back into session after a two-week recess, McConnell criticized President Joe Biden for not doing enough to negotiate on the nation’s debt ceiling and thanked his colleagues for their well-wishes. … ‘Suffice it to say, this wasn’t the first time that being hard-headed has served me very well.’”

PROBE PREP — “Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey to set up legal defense fund amid criminal probe,” by NBC’s Jonathan Dienst, Ken Dilanian and Zoë Richards

ORIGIN STORY — “Covid Emerged as Chinese Lab Faced Biosafety Issues, Senate Republican Study Finds,” by WSJ’s Warren Strobel and Michael Gordon

TRUMP CARDS

KNOWING JOE TACOPINA —“Joe Tacopina is pretty sure he can get Trump out of this,” by WaPo’s Kara Voght: “[W]hy would Tacopina represent Trump? He has two criteria for taking on a case: ‘If I think someone’s been really wronged, and I really fall in love with a person,’ Tacopina says. To him, the former president meets both.”

JUST POSTED — “Trump team prepares to fight efforts to block him from ballots over Jan. 6,” by WaPo’s Michael Scherer: “Two nonprofit groups who do not disclose all their donors, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) and Free Speech for People, have prepared multipronged legal strategies to challenge Trump across the country under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.”

JUDICIARY SQUARE

THE LOAN LURCH — “Biden DOJ wins transfer of lawsuit challenging student loan rule away from conservative Texas court,” by Michael Stratford

SCOTUS WATCH — “Supreme Court to deliver answer in religious mailman’s case,” by AP’s Jessica Gresko

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

YIKES — “‘Stop the Steal’ Organizer Apologizes After Being Accused of Asking Teen Boys for D*ck Pics,” by the Daily Beast’s Will Sommer: “The budding online scandal has also roiled the pro-Trump and white supremacist ‘America First’ movement, just months after it reached new levels of notoriety after its leader, NICK FUENTES, dined with Donald Trump and rapper KANYE WEST at Mar-a-Lago. Now Fuentes is facing backlash from his own supporters over whether he ignored warnings that [ALI] ALEXANDER, his friend and ally, was allegedly soliciting nude pictures from young men within Fuentes’s movement.”

POLICY CORNER

MAJOR INVESTIGATION — NYT’s Hannah Dreier is up with a detailed look into the continued warning signs across the federal government that migrant children were at risk and working illegally — alarms that were either “ignored or missed,” the Times writes in its investigation. “Again and again, veteran government staffers and outside contractors told the Health and Human Services Department, including in reports that reached Secretary XAVIER BECERRA, that children appeared to be at risk,” Dreier writes.

The response: “In interviews with The Times, officials expressed concern for migrant children but shifted blame for failing to protect them. … ROBYN M. PATTERSON, a White House spokeswoman, said in a statement that the administration was now increasing scrutiny of employers and reviewing its vetting of sponsors. … But the White House declined to comment on why the administration did not previously react to repeated signs that migrant children were being widely exploited.”

ABORTION FALLOUT — “Abortion pill manufacturer to pay $765K to U.S. to settle suit over incorrect labeling,” by Jennifer Haberkorn and Josh Gerstein

PLANTING A FLAG — “Senior Democrat Urges Executive Actions From Biden on Immigration,” by NYT’s Eileen Sullivan: “Senator BOB MENENDEZ, [D-N.J.] one of the loudest and most powerful Democratic critics of the Biden administration’s immigration policies, said this week that he had delivered a list of recommended executive actions to the White House to address illegal migration at the southern border in a more humane way.”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

LEAK LATEST — “Egypt nearly supplied rockets to Russia, agreed to arm Ukraine instead, leak shows,” by WaPo’s Missy Ryan, Evan Hill and Siobhán O’Grady: “Taken together, the documents provide new insight into the Biden administration’s quiet but high-stakes diplomacy with countries that have sought to stay on the margins of Washington’s intensifying standoff with Moscow.”

— “U.S. eavesdropped on U.N. secretary general, leaks reveal,” by WaPo’s Tim Starks and Karen DeYoung: “The documents … shed new light on [U.N. Secretary General ANTÓNIO] GUTERRES’ interactions with top U.N. officials and world leaders, including detailing what they describe as his ‘outrage’ over being denied a visit to a war-torn region in Ethiopia and frustrations toward Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY.”

The investigation: “U.S. officials have examined whether alleged doc leaker had foreign links,” by Erin Banco and Lara Seligman

The crackdown: “Pentagon Culls Classified Document Distribution List After Intelligence Leak,” by Bloomberg’s Roxana Tiron and Jenny Leonard

Inside the Discord: “Member of chatroom where leaked Pentagon documents surfaced tells CNN alleged leaker didn’t want users to be ‘shocked by news cycles,’” by CNN’s Sean Lyngaas and Gianluca Mezzofiore

Behind Donbass Devushka: “FBI Investigating Ex-Navy Noncommissioned Officer Linked to Pro-Russia Social-Media Account,” by WSJ’s Sadie Gurman, Gordon Lubold and Bob Mackin

EVAN GERSHKOVICH LATEST — “Russian court to hear jailed US reporter’s appeal,” per AP

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

GUNS IN AMERICA — “Biden calls 16-year-old shot in Kansas City,” by Kelly Garrity: “Biden on Monday called RALPH YARL, a Black 16-year-old who was shot in Kansas City, Mo., after ringing the wrong doorbell, the White House confirmed Monday night. Yarl was shot twice Thursday night after he approached the wrong house while picking up his siblings, an incident that Prosecuting Attorney ZACHARY THOMPSON described Monday as having ‘a racial component.’ On Monday, ANDREW LESTER, an 84-year-old white man, was charged with first-degree assault.”

UVALDE, ONE YEAR LATER — “Two Children, a Burst of Gunfire and the Year That Came After,” by NYT’s Edgar Sandoval in Uvalde, Texas

HOW IT HAPPENED — “Texas to New Jersey: Tracking the Toxic Chemicals in the Ohio Train Inferno,” by NYT’s Hiroko Tabuchi: “Tankers of vinyl chloride were going halfway across the country, government records show, a trip highlighting the risks of transporting chemicals as plastics production grows.”

MEDIAWATCH

HAPPENING TODAY (PROBABLY) — “Fox News-Dominion libel case set to begin after brief delay,” by AP’s David Bauder, Randall Chase and Geoff Mulvihill in Wilmington, Del.

Related read: “Fired Fox News producer says she found more evidence relevant to Dominion case,” by NBC’s Jane Timm

MUSK READ — “CBC ‘pausing’ Twitter after ‘government-funded media’ label,” by AP’s Rob Gillies

John Fetterman is back at the Capitol — arriving in shorts, of course (before he changed to go vote).

Paul Gosar linked an article from a neo-Nazi website in his official newsletter and hid the antisemitism.

After months of renovations, the Ohio Clock Corridor has returned to normalcy.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — AKPD Message and Media has relaunched as Thematic Campaigns, adding Whitney Larsen and Tyler Law as partners. Larsen previously was national political director for recruitment at the DCCC; Law previously was an AKPD principal and is a DCCC and Ro Khanna alum.

— Nichole Johnson is joining Rep. Ruben Gallego’s (D-Ariz.) Senate campaign as campaign manager. She previously was campaign manager for Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan’s reelection campaign. Gallego’s campaign is also working with Pia Carusone and SKDK as media consultants, along with Colin Rogero, formerly of 76 Words.

— Olivia Lee is now scheduler for Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.). She most recently was deputy director of scheduling for Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.). She replaces Malcolm Fouhy, who has been promoted to director of strategic planning and senior adviser.

— Kiara Kearney is now press secretary for Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.). She most recently was press secretary for Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.).

MEDIA MOVES — Katherine Doyle has joined NBC News’ digital team to cover the White House. She most recently was a White House reporter for the Washington Examiner. … Ben Feuerherd is joining The Messenger to be a federal court reporter. He previously was a federal court reporter at the NY Post. … Nicole Carroll is stepping down as Gannett’s news division president and USA Today editor in chief, per Semafor’s Maxwell Tani. Michael McCarter will be the interim EIC.

TRANSITIONS — Jamie Wise is now a senior adviser for Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo. He most recently served as a professional staff member on the House Appropriations Commerce-Justice-Science Subcommittee and is a John Kerry, Rosa DeLauro and Jon Tester alum. … Harris Walker is now director of government affairs for North America and Europe, Middle East and Africa at Livent. He most recently was senior adviser for strategic engagement at DOE’s National Nuclear Security Administration. … Ahmad Khan will be director of strategic engagement at the office of DOD’s Chief Information Officer. He most recently was chief of staff to the undersecretary of Defense for acquisition and sustainment. …

… Lindsay Ratliff is now VP of government relations at Rolls Royce. She previously was legislative director for Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.). James Hitchcock is taking over as legislative director for Banks after previously serving as a senior policy adviser for Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.). And Adam Lemon is now a military legislative aide for Banks after previously serving as a legislative assistant for Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.).

WEEKEND WEDDINGS — Gaby Hurt, press secretary for Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) and a Trump White House alum, and Ryan Marks, a special agent for the U.S. Secret Service, got married Saturday in her hometown of Charlotte, N.C. They met in 2020 at the White House press gate. Pic … Another pic … SPOTTED: Judd Deere, Margo Martin, Davis Ingle, Lexie Hosier, Adam Webb, Laura Mengelkamp, Maddie Fazen, Sarah Durdaller, Sophie Louise Delquié, Will Martin, Laura Ortiz and Sarah Wood.

— Arthur Bryant, comms director for Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Mo.), and Terra Davis of Terra Davis Consulting got married Saturday in Orange, Va. Pic … SPOTTED: Rep. Greg Murphy (R-N.C.), Barbara Comstock, Juliegrace Brufke, Ryan Rusbuldt, Emily Casey and Dwayne Carson.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Annie Lange, senior director of federal affairs at the Beer Institute and a Mitt Romney alum, and Justin Lange, supercharger market lead for the Northeast at Tesla, welcomed Penfield “Penny” Annabelle Lange on Saturday. Pic … Another pic

— Lauren Maples, a second-grade teacher in Alexandria City, and Gus Maples, a director at Tai Ginsberg & Associates, welcomed Atticus Reid Maples on Saturday. Pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Bob Latta (R-Ohio) and Gwen Moore (D-Wis.) … John Podhoretz … White House Cabinet Secretary Evan Ryan … POLITICO’s Burgess Everett, Michael Stratford, Lara Seligman, Kristen Lackey and Mohar Chatterjee … Kayleigh McEnany … White House’s Kelsey Donohue … Darby Grant … Black Rock Group’s Mike Dubke … Bret Manley … John Fogarty … DHS’ Robert Silvers … USA Today’s Donovan Slack … Sean Maloney … MSNBC’s Ayman Mohyeldin … CNN’s Eva Mckend … Grant Saunders … Micki Werner … Tracy Spicer of Avenue Solutions … Caleb Crosswhite … Amazon’s Brian Huseman … Rick Kaplan … former Reps. Justin Amash (Libertarian-Mich.) and Karen Handel (R-Ga.) … Zach Zaragoza … Columbia’s Ben Chang … Phil Gordon … Trey Grayson

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