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A West African bloc has given Niger’s military junta until Sunday to step down or face a possible military intervention. If such an operation were to happen, NatSec Daily has been told to expect one of two general outcomes.

The first is the “shit show” scenario, as described by former NSC director for African affairs CAMERON HUDSON. He argues that military moves by the Economic Community of West African States would lead to a conflict between inexperienced and relatively weak forces.

“ECOWAS has no recent experience undertaking this kind of operation. It’s not something they even train for,” Hudson added, noting that a country like Nigeria is still struggling to defeat the Boko Haram terrorist group inside its borders. There’s also the possibility of Mali and Burkina Faso intervening to help — not combat — the coup’s perpetrators. “An intervention now has all the makings of a regional war,” Hudson said.

The second scenario is still bad, but not as dire. J. PETER PHAM, a former top U.S. diplomat for the Sahel now at the Atlantic Council, contends the junta-aligned countries have militaries that would struggle even getting to Niger. Burkina Faso’s forces have seen nearly two-thirds of the nation’s territory taken over by insurgents, while Mali’s military only has one transport plane, he said.

Both those nations, per Pham, “will have trouble fighting their way out of the bag that they’re in.”

What he suspects instead is ECOWAS aims to pressure Niger’s military to root out the junta. After all, the coup leaders and their followers are a fraction of the Nigerien forces, meaning that the rest of the military would outnumber and overpower those holding ousted president MOHAMED BAZOUM — although doing so without endangering his life and family is another matter.

“The best armed and trained units are the special force battalions the U.S. has trained and the French have trained,” said Pham, adding many of them aren’t in the capital, Niamey, because they’re out in the countryside fighting insurgents and terrorist groups.

KEN OPALO, a Georgetown University professor of African politics, said ECOWAS should prioritize non-military options. “They’d be much better off working on a face-saving off ramp through an African Union process,” he said, such as defining a fixed timeline for the return of civilian rule. “It’s a terrible situation and there are simply no good options on the table.”

The Biden administration is signaling it doesn’t want to see an uptick in fighting, though it considers any questions about a future intervention as a hypothetical scenario. “Nobody wants to see anybody get hurt, and certainly we don’t want to see any resolution of this that would result in violence of any kind,” NSC spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters Thursday.

There are growing worries about what’s to come. Paris announced today that it has evacuated more than 1,000 French and other nationals from Niger. On Wednesday, the U.S issued an ordered departure for much of its embassy personnel in Niamey, with the State Department saying the mission had “suspended routine services.”

The Biden administration has yet to call the military takeover a coup, claiming there’s still room for diplomacy to put Bazoum back in charge. Just today, on Niger’s independence day no less, President JOE BIDEN said “the Nigerien people have the right to choose their leaders…I call for President Bazoum and his family to be immediately released, and for the preservation of Niger’s hard-earned democracy.”

Bazoum’s been on the phone with many foreign officials, including several calls with Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN. Still, the Biden administration hasn’t announced any such call by the president.

BREAKING: The Department of Justice announced Thursday that two U.S. Navy sailors in California have been arrested on espionage charges after allegedly spying on behalf of China. The arrests mark the latest incident of U.S. service members mishandling or divulging sensitive military and national security information, Eric reports.

‘LITTLE BY LITTLE’: Russian forces aren’t making progress along the frontlines but remain heavily dug into their positions, making it difficult for Ukrainian troops to move east and south, Reuters’ RON POPESKI reports.

A dozen Ukrainian attacks in the Donetsk region, which has seen heavy fighting in recent months, have been repelled by Russian forces. But Deputy Ukrainian Defence Minister HANNA MALIAR said Kyiv has retaken areas near Bakhmut, an eastern city Moscow’s troops seized in May.

“It’s monotonous hard work, past hundreds or thousands of minefields,” a Ukrainian military official told the Washington Post’s JOHN HUDSON and ANASTACIA GALOUCHKA. “We look for the enemy’s vulnerable spots and move forward — little by little.”

Blinken called on global leaders today to do more to address rising hunger amid Russia’s blockade and attacks on Ukraine’s food exports while speaking at a U.N Security Council meeting. His calls for new action to address rising global hunger come as U.S. and Western officials are scrambling to help Ukraine export grain and other food supplies amid Russian air strikes targeting key export routes.

“What has Russia’s response been to the world’s distress and outrage?” Blinken said. “Bombing Ukrainian granaries. Mining port entrances. Threatening to attack any vessel in the Black Sea, no matter its flag, no matter its cargo.”

WAGNER’S NATO ‘SABOTAGE’: Polish Prime Minister MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI warned today that the Russian paramilitary Wagner Group might carry out “sabotage actions” in an attempt to destabilize NATO, our own CLAUDIA CHIAPPA reports.

“Our borders have been stopping various hybrid attacks for years,” Morawiecki said during a meeting with Lithuanian President GITANAS NAUSĖDA. “Russia and Belarus are increasing their numerous provocations and intrigues in order to destabilize the border of NATO’s eastern flank.”

Some of YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN’s Wagner troops have moved to Belarus from Russia under a deal to end his rebellion against Moscow. The move immediately sparked tension with Belarusian neighbors, prompting Poland to re-station military units to the east of the country, closer to the frontier with Belarus.

SAUDI KINGMAKER: This weekend, Saudi Arabia will take the latest step to come out of the world’s proverbial shadows when it hosts talks on the Ukraine war, per our own SUZANNE LYNCH.

Dozens of national security advisers and senior-ranking officials are gathering by the Red Sea in Jeddah for talks that kick-off Friday evening — a follow-up to a similar gathering in Denmark in June. The aim is to bring together countries from the so-called “Global South” such as India, Brazil and South Africa as well as a host of European countries and the United States and Canada, to rally around Ukraine’s peace plan.

Ukraine will be represented at the summit; Russia was not invited. The absence of a Russian representation points to a fundamental challenge for Ukraine, and the West. Ukraine is adamant that its 10-point peace plan is the only show in town, but a key plank of the proposal is the requirement that Russia reaffirms the territorial integrity of Ukraine and withdraws all its troops from the country — a no-go for Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN.

Still, people involved in preparation for the meeting hope that progress can be made this weekend. According to documents seen by POLITICO, discussions will take place across a range of issues — including food and energy security, release of prisoners and forcibly deported people, ecological security and plans for a war crimes tribunal.

THEY’RE ON A BOAT: The U.S. military may put troops on commercial ships that travel through the Strait of Hormuz in an attempt to stop Iran from seizing or harassing American vessels, four U.S. officials told the Associated Press’ LOLITA BALDOR and JON GAMBRELL.

It would be an unprecedented measure against Tehran, which has seized numerous chips in the past four years in an effort to pressure Washington over the collapsed Iran nuclear deal. The move could either stop the seizures or further escalate tensions.

MONGOLIA’S ‘NORTH STAR’: While Russia and China are Mongolia’s “eternal neighbors,” Prime Minister LUVSANNAMSRAIN OYUN-ERDENE sees his country’s economic future with the West, he told our own PHELIM KINE.

“The United States is not just our trading neighbor, it’s the North Star for Mongolia’s market economy and democratic values,” Oyun-Erdene said.

Asked about the touchy relationship with Mongolia’s neighbors — Russia to the north and China to the south — Oyun-Erdene said: “We have our geopolitical tensions … but I’m confident that our two neighbors will continue respecting our choices and the partnerships that we are developing.”

IT’S THURSDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [email protected] and [email protected], and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

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VIVEK DOESN’T BUY 9/11 REPORT: VIVEK RAMASWAMY cast doubt on the veracity of the government’s explanation of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, saying he didn’t believe the findings of the 9/11 Commission, our own NATALIE ALLISON reports.

In a Tuesday night interview on the conservative Blaze TV that went viral Wednesday, host ALEX STEIN asked the Republican presidential candidate if he believes 9/11 was an “inside job” or “exactly like the government tells us.”

“I don’t believe the government has told us the truth,” Ramaswamy said. “I’m driven by evidence and data. What I’ve seen in the last several years is we have to be skeptical of what the government does tell us…I haven’t seen evidence to the contrary, but do I believe everything the government told us about it? Absolutely not. Do I believe the 9/11 Commission? Absolutely not.”

After the clip appeared, Ramaswamy said he didn’t think 9/11 was perpetrated by the U.S., as conspiracy theorists allege. His skepticism is aimed at Saudi Arabia. “Al-Qaeda clearly planned and executed the attacks, but we have never fully addressed who knew what in the Saudi government about it,” Ramaswamy tweeted. “We *can* handle the TRUTH.”

We asked Ramaswamy’s campaign if he would not treat Saudi Arabia as a friendly country over what he suggests is more involvement by Riyadh in 9/11 than known. “He thinks we have to do what is in American interests right now, but that doesn’t mean she should cover up the past,” said campaign spokesperson TRICIA McLAUGHLIN, adding that Ramaswamy wants a “stable” relationship with Saudi Arabia.

The Saudi embassy in D.C. didn’t respond to an immediate request for comment.

NEW PLAN: The Defense Department announced a plan today to strengthen its cyber workforce, including through creating a fund for cyber development and extending partnerships with the private sector, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!).

MARK GORAK, principal director for Resources and Analysis in DOD’s Office of the Chief Information Officer, said in an interview prior to the plan’s release that the establishment of the fund is “one of the bigger, bolder initiatives” that is being proposed. He said the fund is particularly aimed at providing professional development for the cyber civilian workforce at the Pentagon.

Among the changes is a prioritization of the ability for DOD’s cyber workforce to work remotely or have a hybrid schedule, a shift from typical Pentagon cyber policy work which is often classified and done in specialized facilities. “We have classified devices in homes today,” Gorak said. “It’s a matter of, everyone could be another potential risk, and then how do you mitigate those risks.”

The implementation plan zeros in on nurturing the partnerships with both allied nations and with the private sector. This includes establishing an apprenticeship program to allow cyber professionals to work with DOD for small periods of time, and setting a goal for DOD to carry out five cyber development exercises with international partners by 2027.

HYPERDRIVE: The Pentagon is looking to trim as much as 80 percent of the production and sustainment costs out of its hypersonic missile programs, our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report.

The request, which was posted on a government contracting website by the Pentagon’s industrial base policy office, says it is “seeking proposals to assess potential supply-chain risks and costs within the Hypersonics industrial base and to develop risk mitigation strategies.”

Any cost reductions that can be found are sorely needed. The Army’s still-in-development Long Range Hypersonic Weapon is slated to cost around $41 million apiece, a price tag that would severely limit the number the service could afford.

NEW AI LAWS? FORGET IT: Republican Sen. TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.) said he doesn’t expect the U.S. will need sweeping legislation to mitigate the technology’s risks.

“We’re probably not going to have to ban a bunch of things that aren’t currently banned. We’re not going to have to pass a lot of major legislation to deal with new threats,” Young told our own STEVEN OVERLY.

A pillar of Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER’s efforts to craft new AI laws in the Senate, Young said he hopes the Senate will equip federal agencies with the people and other resources needed to implement laws already on the books in a world that is increasingly being transformed by algorithms and artificial intelligence.

NOT REPORTING FOR DUTY: Reservists in the Israel Defense Forces have begun skipping military service, following through on threats made during the Israeli government’s contentious judicial overhaul push, according to Wall Street Journal’s DOV LIEBER.

The growing refusals to serve reveal the degree to which the effort by Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s government has divided Israeli society, and Israeli military officials have warned that prolonged refusals to serve could hurt military readiness.

“At present, the Air Force is fully capable and ready to operate. Failure to report for an extended period may put the [Israel Defense Forces] and the Air Force in a state of decreased competence and readiness for war,” the Israeli military told the Journal.

— Army Chief of Staff Gen. JAMES McCONVILLE and Sergeant Major of the Army MICHAEL GRINSTON will retire today during a ceremony at Joint Base Myer-Henderson Hall.

— FRIDA GHITIS, POLITICO: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has ripped façade off anti-imperialism

— House Committee on Oversight and Accountability: Interview of: DEVON ARCHER

— Amnesty International: “Death came to our home”: War crimes and civilian suffering in Sudan

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: Looking south: security challenges in Latin America.

— National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 11 a.m.: Meeting of the National Space Council Users advisory group.

— Inter-American Dialogue, 1:15 p.m.: U.S. policy towards and relations with Central America

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who we call upon to relinquish editorial control of this newsletter by Sunday.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, whom we would let rule forever.