Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt

The United States isn’t the only country to have an early January insurrection anymore.

Yesterday, thousands of supporters of Brazil’s former President JAIR BOLSONARO unleashed chaos unto the country’s Congress, Supreme Court and presidential palace a week after President LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA was sworn into office. Demonstrators were camped out in Brasilia’s Three Powers Square near military bases for months, but on Sunday got past security, climbed onto roofs, smashed windows and eventually stormed the buildings. Now, thousands of those rioters have been arrested for the alleged coup attempt.

Some people saw all this coming. We even talked about it in NatSec Daily in October. So if the threat of violence was that real, why wasn’t it taken more seriously?

To PEDRO ABRAMOVAY, Brazil’s former justice minister under Lula who predicted violence coming out of Bolsonaro’s camp, some indicating factors are directly related to what happened in the United States.

“Bolsonaro has [former President DONALD] TRUMP and the extreme right to read as models, with a disinformation network in Brazil that’s inspired directly and indirectly by what happened in the United States,” Abramovay said. “Bolsonaro also challenged the electoral system from the beginning, provoking his supporters to refuse to accept the result.”

But complicity may also have played a role in the scale of political violence in the capital.

The secretary of public security for Brasilia was ANDERSON TORRES, an ex-Bolsonaro justice minister who had been sworn in just before Lula took office. Journalists in Brazil also note that the military police were taking a casual approach to stopping Capitol invaders — some were even seen taking pictures of the demonstrators from afar. Brasilia governor and longtime Bolsonaro ally IBANEIS ROCHA confirmed on Twitter that Torres has since been fired, while Rocha himself also received a 90-day suspension.

Meanwhile, Bolsonaro has found refuge in the United States, where he was even allegedly spotted last week at arguably America’s most pleasurable grocery store: Publix.

The former Brazilian president has denied involvement in the raid, tweeting that rioters went too far.

President JOE BIDEN made a joint statement with Mexican President ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR and Canadian Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU condemning the violence in Brazil today, but he has yet to say whether Bolsonaro would be permitted to remain in the United States. Some lawmakers are already calling for his extradition.

National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN told reporters Monday that “the democratic institutions of Brazil will hold, the will of the people in Brazil will be respected. The freely elected leader of Brazil will govern Brazil and will not be deterred, or knocked off course by the actions of these people.” He said the U.S. has not received any request from Brasilia about Bolsonaro.

But more than early January political violence and former leaders camping out in Florida, Abramovay says the United States and Brazil have something else in common.

“Brazil and the U.S. are the only two countries that have defeated authoritarian leaders through elections,” he said. “Because of the resistance from civil society, they have been able to defeat those leaders and have a second chance to try and stop extremism fed by disinformation. And I don’t know if we’re gonna have another chance.”

U.S. EYEING WAGNER GROUP’S MOVES: Top U.S. officials are increasingly tracking the movements and efforts of the Russian paramilitary organization Wagner Group outside of Ukraine as Moscow continues to use it to launch influence operations in Africa and Europe, our own ERIN BANCO reports.

Last month the Biden administration downgraded classified intelligence saying Russia is relying on the Wagner group — founded by Russian oligarch YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN — in Ukraine to recruit prisoners and launch offensives in the city of Bakhmut.

But U.S. officials are also gathering intelligence related to the group’s activities in countries such as the Central African Republic, Mali and Serbia, according to cables obtained by POLITICO, where Russia is using Wagner to fight anti-Putin sentiment and defend government mining interests with troops and weapons.

A NEW WAY TO DEAL WITH THREATS: The Defense Department is overhauling its approach to countering biological and chemical weapons, as potential adversaries such as Russia and China rush to create threats that are easier to use and can evade traditional defenses, our own LARA SELIGMAN and Erin report.

Officials are launching a new plan to develop medical treatments, vaccines and personal protective equipment that can adapt to a range of evolving biological and chemical threats, said IAN WATSON, DoD’s deputy assistant secretary for chemical and biological defense.

“We see what we have to prepare for, for the National Defense Strategy, for the pacing threat of China and Russia,” Watson said. “We see not only the technology, the intel, the intent, and also the potential impact it would have to our forces if we don’t prepare.”

RUSSIA CLAIMS DEADLY STRIKE, NO EVIDENCE: Officials at a school in Ukraine cast doubt on Monday on Russia’s claims that a missile strike killed hundreds of Ukrainian troops there last week — despite there being no evidence of casualties, the Associated Press’ VASILISA STEPANENKO reports.

Russian officials said missile strikes hit two temporary bases holding 1,300 Ukrainian troops, killing 600 soldiers. They specifically named a vocational school in the eastern city of Kramatorsk as being struck.

But when AP reporters got to the scene, all they saw were blown out windows with locals inside cleaning up glass, not soldiers’ remains. The school’s deputy director told the reporter that “nobody saw a single spot of blood anywhere.” Still, Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV wouldn’t budge, denying reports from the ground and insisting the casualties occurred.

U.K. TANKS TO UKRAINE?:The United Kingdom may soon send Challenger 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine, Sky News’ DEBORAH HAYNES reports.

No final decision has yet been made, though one person told Haynes Britain may ship about 10 tanks.

An announcement may come during a Jan. 20 Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting at Ramstein Air Base in Germany.

The deliberation comes after the U.S. and France last week announced they would send infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine.

IT’S MONDAY:Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [email protected] and [email protected], and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @ericgeller, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye.

READY FOR WAR: Japanese and U.S. armed forces are tightening their military alliance as Washington and its allies in the region prepare for potential conflict with China, including a war over Taiwan, the Financial Times’ KATHRIN HILLE reports.

Both militaries have “seen exponential increases ... just over the last year” in their operations on the ground they’d have to defend during a war, Lt. Gen. JAMES BIERMAN, commanding general of the Third Marine Expeditionary Force and of Marine Forces Japan, told FT.

Bierman likened the moves by the U.S. and its Asian allies to Western preparations for conflict in Ukraine following Russian aggression in 2014 and 2015. That helped allies effectively respond to Russia’s invasion last year, and “we are setting the theater in Japan, in the Philippines, in other locations,” he said.

Japanese officials will visit Washington to discuss strengthening the alliance during talks between the foreign and defense ministers on Wednesday. Those talks will continue during a summit between Biden and Japanese Prime Minister KISHIDA FUMIO on Friday in Washington.

CHINA’S LARGE-SCALE DRILLS AIMED AT TAIWAN:China deployed warplanes and navy vessels near Taiwan as part of large-scale joint combat strike drills that began Sunday, the Associated Press’ HUIZHONG WU reports.

The exercises coincided with a visit to the island nation on Monday from German lawmakers, including MARIE AGNES STRACK-ZIMMERMANN, who heads the German Parliament’s Defense Committee. The group will meet with Taiwan President TSAI ING-WEN, national security leaders and the Mainland Affairs Council, which handles issues related to China.

From Sunday morning to Monday morning, China flew 57 warplanes and sent four ships near the island nation, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense said. Nearly half of the planes crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait as Chinese officials said the “primary target was to practice land-strikes and sea assaults.”

CYBERATTACKS COULD BE WAR CRIMES: A top Ukrainian cyber official believes some cyberattacks on Ukrainian critical and civilian infrastructure could amount to war crimes, our own SHANNON VAN SANT reports.

VICTOR ZHORA, chief digital transformation officer at the State Service of Special Communication and Information Protection of Ukraine, said Russia has launched cyberattacks in coordination with kinetic military attacks as part of its invasion of Ukraine, arguing the digital warfare is part of what Kyiv considers war crimes committed against its citizens.

“When we observe the situation in cyberspace we notice some coordination between kinetic strikes and cyberattacks, and since the majority of kinetic attacks are organized against civilians — being a direct act of war crime — supportive actions in cyber can be considered as war crimes,” Zhora told POLITICO in an interview.

Ukrainian officials are gathering evidence of cyberattacks linked to military strikes and are sharing the information with the International Criminal Court in the Hague in an effort to support potential prosecutions into Russia's actions, Zhora said. Academics and experts have been pushing for the ICC to loop in cyberattacks into its war crime investigations for months.

‘DEATH TO KHAMENEI’ POSTS ALLOWED ON FACEBOOK: Meta’s Oversight Board decided that posts on Facebook that appear to call for the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah ALI KHAMENEI don’t violate its policy, Reuters’ KATIE PAUL reports.

The board, which is funded by Meta but functions independently, overturned the company’s decision to remove posts using the slogan “death to Khamenei.” Such posts don’t violate its rule barring violent threats because the phrase is often used to mean “down with Khamenei,” the board argued. The Iranian leader has faced international backlash for cracking down on anti-government protests in recent months.

“It is a rhetorical, political slogan, not a credible threat," the board wrote, urging Meta to develop better ways of factoring such context into policies.

F-35 FOR CANADA:The Canadian government announced that it will purchase 88 F-35s for the Royal Canadian Air Force.

“This is the largest investment in the RCAF in the past 30 years. The estimated investment for this project is $19 billion, which includes associated equipment, sustainment set-up and services, as well as the construction of Fighter Squadron Facilities in Bagotville and Cold Lake,” per a news release.

“Today’s announcement marks one of the most significant investments in the Royal Canadian Air Force in more than 30 years,” said FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE, the minister of innovation, science and industry.

YVAN BAKER, a member of Canada's Parliament from the governing Liberal Party who chairs the Canada-Ukraine Parliamentary Friendship Group, told NatSec Daily that he supported the decision. "It’s more important than ever that our Armed Forces have the tools that they need to keep Canadians safe. Today’s announcement will deliver our Air Force with state-of-the-art jets — and also create exciting opportunities for Canadian workers and businesses. We promised to deliver the right jets at the right price for Canadians," he said, praising Defense Minister ANITA ANAND and others for the move.

GOP FIGHT OVER DEFENSE SPENDING: The deal that brought Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY to power might lead to deep defense spending cuts, our own CONNOR O'BRIEN reports.

"Among the concessions McCarthy made to secure the speakership was a vote on a budget framework that caps discretionary spending at fiscal 2022 levels and aims to balance the federal budget in a decade," he wrote. "If the Pentagon is not spared, reverting to last year’s budget levels would amount to a roughly 10 percent cut, wiping out a $75 billion increase enacted last month."

But incoming House Armed Services Chair MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.), who harshly criticized the party’s conservative wing during the chaos over the speaker’s gavel, said he’s “not worried” about the deal affecting defense. Incoming House Appropriations Chair KAY GRANGER (R-Texas) and Rep. KEN CALVERT (R-Calif.), who is set to chair the top defense spending panel, also support additional Pentagon funding.

‘IT’S ALMOST WORLD WAR I’: Sen. ANGUS KING (I-Maine) characterized the situation in eastern Ukraine as “essentially trench warfare,” underscoring what he sees as a need to continue funding the country’s fight against Russia, our own OLIVIA OLANDER reported.

“It’s almost World War I. It’s horrible,” King told “Face the Nation” host MARGARET BRENNAN, less than a day after returning from a trip to Kyiv.

The latest aid package from the White House, which includes armored vehicles, is designed to deal with this problem, King said. Patriot missiles for air defense will help stop the country’s energy infrastructure from being “pummeled,” he said.

SWEDEN UNSURE ON NATO BID: Swedish Prime Minister ULF KRISTERSSON said his country can’t meet some of Turkey’s demands in order to be admitted into NATO, The Wall Street Journal’s JARED MALSIN reported.

“Turkey both confirms that we did what we said we would do, but they also say they want things we can’t and don’t want to give them,” Kristersson said at a security conference in Sweden.

It’s “impossible to know” whether Turkey will ratify the Nordic nation’s application before Turkey’s upcoming election, the prime minister said. For months, Turkey has threatened to block Sweden’s and Finland’s application to NATO, citing ties between the two countries and Kurdish separatist groups.

‘A DAMN MESS’: Over a thousand names on the newly constructed monument in the National Mall honoring Korean War service members who died in combat are spelled wrong, The New York Times’ DAVE PHILIPPS reports.

“It’s just a damn mess — full of old bookkeeping errors and typos,” HAL BARKER, a historian who, along with his brother EDWARD BARKER JR., maintains an online trove of information on the conflict called the Korean War Project, told the Times.

In all, they estimate there are 1,015 spelling errors. There’s also 245 names of service members who died in circumstances entirely unrelated to the war, including a Marine who lived for 60 years following the war and had eight grandchildren, they say. About 500 additional names should be listed but aren’t.

— TARA VARMA is now a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution where she’ll focus on French and European foreign policy issues. She was the head of the European Council on Foreign Relations’ Paris office.

— OLGA STEFANISHYNA, POLITICO: Half-year candidate: An updated look at EU-Ukraine negotiations

— MARK DUBOWITZ, Tablet: Obama’s Anti-Imperialist Fantasy Bears Bitter Fruit

— JAMES HOLMES, 1945: Is China a Mahanian Sea Power?

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies and GitHub, 10 a.m.: Government Policies for Open Source Software

— The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, 11 a.m.: Aerospace Nation: Combatant Commander’s Perspective with retired Air Force Gen. TOD WOLTERS

— The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 12:30 p.m.:The state of the global terror threat in 2023

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1 p.m.: Enabling an Economic Transformation of Ukraine: Recovery, Reconstruction, and Modernization

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at [email protected] to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

Thanks to our editor, Dave Brown, who would like us extradited for crimes against journalism.

We also thank our producer, Jeffrey Horst, for being guilty of excellence.