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Welcome to Ottawa Playbook. Let’s get into it.

In today’s edition:

→ The Trudeau-needs-to-go gossip snowballs, as these things do in Ottawa.

→ What’s at stake in today’s vote on PIERRE POILIEVRE‘s carbon tax motion.

→ Where in the world was JEAN CHRÉTIEN last week? Beijing.

TRUDEAU TALK — It used to be easier for loyal Liberals, sipping beer and devouring poutine at Hill receptions, to insist Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU would run again.

They fed off his party convention speech back in May. They told us an election wasn’t in the cards until 2025 because the PM said so — and he meant it. They weren’t sure they’d beat PIERRE POILIEVRE in two years, but Trudeau was their best shot.

Fast forward a few months. It’s not like there’s a countdown clock on Trudeau, the dynamite campaigner who has defied the odds for years. But the odd rumor about the end of an era is now an open conversation.

— Oct. 30, 2023: Could go down as the day the conversation shifted.

Sen. PERCY DOWNE, a former chief of staff to JEAN CHRÉTIEN, published a stinging op-ed — not in the Globe or the Post or the Star, but in the Hill Times and then on the National Newswatch news aggregator tracked obsessively by Hill people.

Downe’s most influential days are long behind him. He’s not the guy to spark a Liberal civil war, though he’s a veteran of the legendary Chrétien-Martin slugfest.

But the 69-year-old senator’s call for a new chapter led by a centrist leader got all kinds of free press. Downe popped up on TV. Everybody seemed to be writing about him.

— Beware groupthink: The senator’s news cycle won’t bring down Trudeau, who appeared to diss Downe when quizzed on the op-ed by reporters on Nov. 2: “Who’s that? Who? Oh Percy, yeah. How’s he doing? Oh, well, I wish him all the best in the work that he’s doing.”

The eternal risk with snowballing Hill rumors is always that the snake eats its own tail.

But PAUL WELLS fired off a weekend column on the zeitgeist’s apparent shift on the PM’s remaining longevity, or lack thereof. “I’ve had people asking me all week whether Trudeau will run again,” Wells told his Substack readers.

If Wells is talking about random run-ins at the Beechwood Metro with shoppers from nearby New Edinburgh and Rockcliffe Park, odds are those people roll in professional circles that rank above junior policy adviser.

Wells’ lingering question: Forget getting replaced. Why would Trudeau want to stay?

— More reading: The Star’s SUSAN DELACOURT sorted through polling that concluded even a new Liberal leader isn’t a silver bullet for the governing party.

Trudeau could always deny the emerging doubt and hang on until 2025. But the hints of a disgruntled caucus, and broader desire for change, are out there in plain sight:

→ Liberal backbenchers are increasingly subdued in question period. Watch the contrast with the Tories across the aisle. Only one team keeps the fire burning.

→ MARK CARNEY is either a serious political threat or an unserious policy wonk, depending who you ask. But he keeps showing up for things — and taking interviews.

— Behind the scenes: Hill reporters are hacking away at “Trudeau resigns” pre-writes that draw on the broad arc of his reimagining of the Liberal Party and near-decade in power.

You know, just in case.

GREEN SHIFT — The carbon tax debate also isn’t what it used to be.

MPs will vote this afternoon on the Conservatives’ motion to exempt all forms of home heating from the federal carbon price.

Poilievre failed to pass a similar motion on Oct. 24, 2022.

At the time, the NDP voted against the motion, calling instead for sales tax to be removed from home heating. But this time ‘round, in light of another year of punishing energy bills and a Liberal tax carve-out for home heating oil, the NDP is taking Poilievre’s side.

— Necessary caveat: If Conservatives and New Democrats can woo the Bloc Québécois to their side, the motion would pass. But don’t expect the Liberals to kowtow to opposition demands in that case. Motions are nonbinding on the government.

— Still, the debate has morphed: Liberals openly dismiss Conservatives as climate deniers.

Energy Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON barked in the House last week — a rarity for the mild-mannered former cleantech exec — that Poilievre’s party “has no belief in the reality of climate change and no plan to fight it.”

But that’s not really what today’s vote is all about.

Liberals have conceded that energy bills are prohibitive enough for heating oil users that they deserve a break. Isn’t it reasonable, the opposition will argue, to ask the government why everyone else facing higher costs doesn’t deserve one?

— Possible outs: As CBC’s AARON WHERRY wrote Friday, the Liberals “practically invited the questions and criticisms they’ve faced over the past week.”

Wherry mused about a pair of potential climb-downs for a government playing defense: adopt the NDP’s sales tax exemption, or expand a free-heat-pump program for heating oil users to homeowners who use natural gas or propane.

Whatever the fate of Poilievre’s motion, don’t forget about another carbon headache.

— That other exemption: Senators will vote tomorrow on a contentious committee report on Bill C-234. Tory MP BEN LOBB‘s private member’s bill would exempt certain farming activities — grain drying and the heating and cooling of barns — from the carbon price.

Playbook last week explained the nitty-gritty of the Senate politics on the bill.

→ One faction of senators wants to vote for a committee report that would strip the heating/cooling exemption. The committee approved that amendment by a slim margin.

If an amended bill passes third reading in the Senate, the legislation heads back to the House — and face almost certain delay from a government promising an end to carbon tax exemptions.

→ Another faction, alongside a powerful agriculture industry, wants the bill to pass unamended and become law as soon as possible. On Nov. 2, three senators added their voices to that chorus: PAT DUNCAN, COLIN DEACON and MARY JANE MCCALLUM.

— The timing of the vote: 5:30 p.m. on Tuesday.

FOREIGN FALLOUT — The safety of more than 17,000 Canadian citizens in Lebanon registered with the federal government, and many more who are not, hung in the balance when Hezbollah leader HASSAN NASRALLAH made extended remarks Friday on the Israel-Hamas war.

Nasrallah appeared unwilling, at least for the moment, to provoke an all-out war on Israel’s northern border.

— A tinderbox: That’s not to say there isn’t conflict. Reuters reported back-and-forth missile and rocket attacks on Sunday between Israeli forces and Hezbollah targets.

— GAC’s warning: Global Affairs Canada advises against all travel to Lebanon. The department’s current advisory acknowledges ongoing incidents: “There are violent clashes along the border with Israel, including daily rocket and missile fire as well as air strikes.”

— Meanwhile, in Gaza: Canadians trapped in the besieged Palestinian territory could potentially evacuate the region via the Rafah border point into Egypt as early as today, CP reported, citing a GAC email to citizens in the area.

They had previously been advised that a Sunday departure could be possible, but CP reported the “trickle of foreigners” allowed to use the Egypt crossing “came to a halt on Saturday amid escalating attacks from Israel.”

The Globe reported Sunday that it was unclear when Canadians would be able to cross.

— Phone calls: Trudeau spoke about the regional conflict Sunday with Egyptian President ABDEL FATTAH EL-SISI and the Emir of Qatar, SHEIKH TAMIM BIN HAMAD AL THANI.

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in the National Capital Region with “private meetings” on his public itinerary.

— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Ottawa with “private meetings” on her public itinerary. She plans to attend question period.

3:30 p.m. The House finance committee studies the “policy decisions and market forces that have led to increases in the cost of buying or renting a home in Canada” (how’s that for a study title that caters to all parties?).

3:30 p.m. Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE and DM SIMON KENNEDY are up at the House ethics committee, which is probing allegations of mismanagement at the federal cleantech investment agency Sustainable Development Technologies Canada. SDTC brass will join for the second hour.

6:15 p.m. Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Minister SEAN FRASER speaks at the Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters annual conference at the Shaw Centre.

7 p.m. Trudeau will deliver remarks at Diwali and Bandi Chhor Divas on the Hill.

DONOR CIRCUIT — Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY is in Vancouver on Thursday, where she’ll headline a Laurier Club reception at Capo & The Spritz.

CANADA-CHINA CHECK-IN — Former PM JEAN CHRÉTIEN delivered his final speech in the House on this day 20 years ago. “I will have time to read more. Somebody gave me a book today about Gladstone,” he said in closing. “Gladstone came back when he was 86. So I say to all of you, watch me.”

Chrétien turns 90 in January.

— Beijing-bound: The former PM popped up in China last week as part of the Canada China Business Council’s 45th anniversary AGM on Oct. 31. He met with Vice President HAN ZHENG and sat down for a friendly interview with a state-run network.

Chrétien was visiting with his daughter, FRANCE, son-in-law ANDRÉ DESMARAIS, grandson OLIVIER DESMARAIS, and great-grandson. André is honorary chair of the CCBC. Olivier is the chair. Both are Power Corp execs.

BMO Wealth Management vice chair (and CCBC vice chair) SCOTT BRISON also attended the AGM, as did Canadian ambo JENNIFER MAY.

— Maritime tension: Two days before the business confab, Chinese fighter jets buzzed a Canadian helicopter over the South China Sea. Defense Minister BILL BLAIR insisted to reporters that the incident took place “well outside any claimed territorial seas and associated airspace.” The Chinese defense ministry told a different story.

— There are a ton of elections in the U.S. on Tuesday. Here’s a cheat sheet via POLITICO’s campaigns and elections editor STEVEN SHEPARD.

— DONALD TRUMP testifies today in the case that could unravel his business empire. From POLITICO’s ERICA ORDEN: Here are six things to watch for as the former president takes the stand.

— Canada’s premiers are meeting this week in Halifax. On the agenda: energy costs and health care.

— “Where is the denunciation of extremist voices? Where is the message of togetherness?” ALTHIA RAJ writes in the Star about Canada’s political leaders and their failure to meet this moment.

— Washington’s second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF spoke with POLITICO’s EUGENE DANIELS about a “crisis of antisemitism” that has broken out in schools and on college campuses in the wake of Hamas’ attack on Israel and the ensuing military response against Gaza.

— And from POLITICO’s RACHAEL BADE: Why BARACK OBAMA’s message on the Israel-Hamas war matters.

— “MARK CARNEY has a very impressive resume. He should let other people talk about that and spend his time talking about Poilievre’s,” STEPHEN MAHER writes at iPolitics.

— The Globe’s editorial, in case you missed it on the weekend: It’s time to take a step back on assisted death.

For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter: How to win on climate.

In other news for Pro readers:

— JOE BIDEN expected to skip COP climate summit, trip to Africa.

— Fear of Chinese dominance looms over next electric car rule.

— Republican climate bill looks to spark carbon tariff talks.

— Insurers face wave of inquiries over climate risks.

— Don’t call it divestment, but California’s giant pension fund signals it could ditch climate ignorers.

Birthdays: HBD to retired senators KELVIN OGILVIE and RICHARD NEUFELD, comms pro CATHERINE CLARK and journalist TERENCE CORCORAN.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way.

Spotted: Kitchener Centre MP MIKE MORRICE, saluting his mom in the House gallery: “She has always been my biggest fan, reminding me that she loves me to the moon and back.”

Movers and shakers: CASSIDY VILLENEUVE, chief of staff to Tory MP RAQUEL DANCHO and “proud northern Ontarian,” hopes to be the next MP in Nipissing–Timiskaming. ANTHONY ROTA is the current Liberal MP. Villeneuve joins a spate of staffers to run for office. Five former aides won 2023 by-elections. LESLIE CHURCH, former chief of staff to CHRYSTIA FREELAND, is seeking a Liberal nomination in Toronto.

The National Council of Canadian Muslims posted an Oct. 13 meeting with the prime minister in the lobbyist registry … Enterprise Canada’s MITCH HEIMPEL posted three October meetings on behalf of Spotify with the Office of the Leader of the Opposition.

Steel producers posted recent meetings with PMO senior adviser BEN CHIN, Freeland and her senior staff, PIERRE POILIEVRE‘s office, MÉLANIE JOLY‘s office, STEVEN GUILBEAULT‘s office, and senior bureaucrats from Finance; Natural Resources; Environment and Climate Change; Privy Council Office; and Innovation, Science and Economic Development.

11 a.m. The House foreign affairs committee will be briefed on the situation at the Russia-Ukraine border. On the witness list: NATALKA CMOC, ambassador of Canada to Ukraine; Canadian Canola Growers Association; Kyiv School of Economics.

11 a.m. The House human resources committee is studying the implications of AI on the Canadian labor force. On Monday, MPs will hear from the City of Kelowna, the Competition Bureau Canada and Unifor.

11 a.m. The House health committee is meeting to consider a request related to that Public Health Agency of Canada contract we told you about last week. The public accounts lists a C$150 million unfulfilled contract with a vendor, which PHAC admitted to the National Post was failed Covid vaccine manufacturer Medicago.

11 a.m. Clause-by-clause consideration of Bill C-20 will draw officials from Canada Border Services Agency, Department of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness, Royal Canadian Mounted Police, and the RCMP’s Civilian Review and Complaints Commission to the House public safety committee.

3 p.m. The Senate national security committee has a five-panel meeting on its schedule as it studies Bill C-21.

3:30 p.m. The House transport committee is studying high-frequency rail and will hear from Unifor, VIA Rail Canada Inc. and Ville de Trois-Rivières.

3:30 p.m. Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE and DM SIMON KENNEDY will be at the House ethics committee to discuss “allegations related to governance” at Sustainable Development Technologies Canada.

3:30 p.m. The House finance committee is focused on the cost of buying or renting a home in Canada. Witnesses include former Toronto city planner and mayoral candidate JENNIFER KEESMAAT, former U.N. Special Rapporteur on the Right to Housing LEILANI FARHA, Butler Mortgage Inc., Mortgage Professionals Canada, Union des municipalités du Québec and West Neighbourhood House.

3:30 p.m. Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami President NATAN OBED will be at the House committee on science and research.

3:30 p.m. The House committee on the status of women will hear from witnesses on women’s economic empowerment in its first hour.

4:30 p.m. Forced global displacement is the topic of study at the Senate human rights committee.

5 p.m. The Senate official languages committee will meet to study issues related to minority-language health services.

Behind closed doors: The House committee on official languages will focus on its report on increased francophone immigration; The House Canada-China committee will also be looking at a report; The House heritage committee will be discussing its study on safe sport; The House agriculture committee will study its report on animal biosecurity preparedness.

Friday’s answer: In her book, “Truth Be Told,” BEVERLEY MCLACHLIN described the challenge of enacting the Charter this way: “Like swimmers tossed into the deepest part of a lake, the justices had struggled to find sure ground, with no map to show them where it lay.” On Nov. 3, 1999, McLachlin was named chief justice of the Supreme Court of Canada.

Props to LAURIE KEMPTON, GEORGE SCHOENHOFER, ADAM ENKIN, CHRISTOPHER LALANDE and ROBERT MCDOUGALL.

Monday’s question: On this day in 1919, GEORGE FOSTER, acting PM of Canada, read a message from KING GEORGE V to the House of Commons.

What happened five days later?

Send your answer to [email protected]

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Emma Anderson and Luiza Ch. Savage.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: [email protected].