With help from Daniel Lippman, Lili Bayer and Eric Bazail-Eimil

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The Biden administration seemingly tried to bury an Afghanistan after-action report detailing how it didn’t plan well enough for the military withdrawal and failed to foresee the ensuing chaos. The State Department released the largely redacted document late on the Friday before the long July 4 weekend, perhaps in hopes that it would garner minimal attention — but we still spent some time between burgers and fireworks going through it.

The highlights from the 90-day, 24-public-page review include:

• “There was insufficient senior-level consideration of worst-case scenarios and how quickly those might follow.”
• “While predictions varied, up until almost the time Kabul fell, most estimates were that the Afghan government and its forces could hold the city for weeks, if not months.”
• It was “unclear who in the Department had the lead” on the noncombatant evacuation operation, known as a NEO. “Naming a 7th Floor principal to oversee all elements of the crisis response would have improved coordination across different lines of effort.”
• “Constantly changing policy guidance and public messaging from Washington regarding which populations were eligible for relocation and how the embassy should manage outreach and flow added to the confusion and often failed to take into account key facts on the ground.”

The review spends a lot of time detailing factors outside State’s control, like former President DONALD TRUMP’s deal with the Taliban that cut out the Afghan government, the dearth of relevant Senate-confirmed officials at the department and a decimated adjudication process for special immigrant visa applicants. They, among other things, unnecessarily complicated State’s Afghanistan response, per the report. It also goes on to mention how diplomats and civilian officials overcame adversity to eventually airlift more than 120,000 people out of Afghanistan.

As for recommendations, the report essentially calls for improving State’s ability to handle crises, appointing a single person to lead a specific response effort, engaging in more planning exercises like tabletops and “improv[ing] crisis communications.”

JONATHAN SCHRODEN, an expert on Afghanistan at the Virginia-based CNA think tank, called the whole document “milquetoast at best.”

“This one spends a predominant amount of space deflecting blame, making excuses and praising the overall effort exhibited by the State Department during the withdrawal and evacuation,” he told NatSec Daily. “Its upbeat tone and very modest recommendations for improvement are in sharp contrast with the images I think most Americans have in their mind of how the U.S. effort in Afghanistan ended.”

Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN previewed all these findings during a private town hall in April. During that session, the same day the White House released its own summary of a Pentagon review, Blinken said he was unlikely to distribute State’s version in full to keep adversaries from seeing “some of the vulnerabilities and deficiencies that we have.”

We asked the State Department why it chose to release the report, which was completed months ago, right before a holiday weekend. A spokesperson said the report “is available to the public, was provided to any media outlet that requested it and documents information that is important at any time.”

We also asked the National Security Council if it knew of State’s release plan and approved of it, but didn’t hear back.

“The timing doesn’t seem to be a coincidence and it’s another sign that the administration wants to sweep this disaster under the rug,” said an aide, who like others wasn’t authorized to speak publicly, working for a Republican House Foreign Affairs Committee member.

WAGNER NOT FULLY IN BELARUS: Wagner forces do remain active in Africa and away from the frontline in Ukraine, but not many have arrived in Belarus, NATO chief JENS STOLTENBERG told our own LILI BAYER in an interview today.

“We have seen some preparations for the hosting of Wagner forces,” as agreed in a deal with Moscow following the mercenary group’s revolt last month, Stoltenberg said. But, he added, “We have so far not yet seen so many of them arriving.”

“We are, of course, closely following what’s going on in Belarus,” Stoltenberg said. “What we have seen is that the Wagner forces continue to operate in Africa,” he noted, underscoring that while not many have gone to Belarus, “some are in Ukraine, but not at the frontlines.”

He further stated that the alliance is working on a package that includes practical support to help Ukraine improve interoperability with Western forces and upgrade to a NATO-Ukraine Council, which would give Kyiv the power to call alliance meetings.

However, when it came to the most sensitive question — what language allies will use to address Kyiv’s membership aspirations — Stoltenberg declined to comment on the precise landing zone. But, he said, “I’m confident that we will make positive and strong decisions on Ukraine” that “will move Ukraine even closer to NATO.”

FALSE FLAGS: Moscow and Kyiv accused each other today of plotting to blow up the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in southern Ukraine, again raising tensions over what has been one of the war’s most contended areas.

Citing intelligence reports, Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said Russian troops who took over the power plant last year have placed objects that looked like explosives on the roof of several units, possibly planning a false flag attack, the New York Times’ MATTHEW MPOKE BIGG reports.

But Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV claimed it’s Ukraine that’s planning to explode Europe’s largest power plant, adding that the situation is “quite tense.” He gave no evidence or further details to support the accusation.

‘NOT A ONE-TIME EVENT’: Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU vowed that Jerusalem’s deadly two-day operation in the West Bank — the largest in two decades and the first to use airstrikes since then — won’t be the last.

“Israel’s broad operation in Jenin is not a one-time event,” Netanyahu said Tuesday night, the Washington Post reports. “We will not allow Jenin to go back to being a city of refuge for terrorism.”

Israel ended the attack on the Jenin refugee camp today, after two days of fighting that killed a dozen Palestinians and an Israeli soldier while displacing thousands of people. Israeli troops cleared Jenin of weapons and confiscated hundreds of thousands of dollars in “terror funds,” Israeli officials said.

RUSSIA OPEN TO SWAP: Peskov said Russia would be open to potential talks about a prisoner swap for jailed Wall Street Journal reporter EVAN GERSHKOVICH, but those talks must remain private, the Associated Press reported Tuesday.

Suspected Russian cybercriminal VLADIMIR DUNAEV, who is in U.S. custody, is reportedly being floated as a prisoner exchange option for Gershkovich.

STOPPED TWICE: The U.S. Navy prevented Iranian forces from seizing two commercial tanker ships in the Gulf of Oman on Wednesday morning, the service announced in a news release and reported on by our own LAWRENCE UKENYE.

During the first seizure attempt, Iranian forces approached a Marshall Islands-flagged vessel but left the scene once a U.S. destroyer arrived and deployed aircraft to patrol the area, the Navy said. The Navy received a distress call hours later from a Bahamian-flagged tanker off the coast of Oman. Several shots were fired from an Iranian vessel — including from crewed members onboard — at the tanker before U.S. forces arrived and halted the seizure attempt, the Navy said.

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YELLEN AND BLINKEN’S ‘KOWTOWING’: Former Vice President MIKE PENCE blasted Blinken and Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN for their visits to China amid rising tensions with Beijing.

“Appeasement has never worked anytime in history,” Pence told radio host HUGH HEWITT today. On the officials’ trips, the GOP presidential candidate had strong words: “I’ve got to tell you, they’ve got a term for that over that way. It’s called kowtowing. That’s something our administration never did.”

Alongside Trump, Pence said he “stood firm with them. We told them how things were going to be, that things were going to change.” While the Trump administration bolstered the U.S. presence abroad, President JOE BIDEN has been “essentially cutting our national defense.”

‘BEG TO DIFFER’: NIKKI HALEY continues her tough-on-China messaging by targeting Beijing over its forced detention and general horrific treatment of Uyghur Muslims.

The spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs tweeted on July 4 that “China rejects all forms of Islamophobia. No one should be allowed to use ‘freedom of speech’ as an excuse to stoke conflict and pit one civilization against another.”

To which Haley replied: “The Uyghurs would beg to differ.”

Haley has made countering China the centerpiece of her national security messaging in recent weeks. She accused Beijing of committing “genocide” against the Uyghurs once in a speech last week at the American Enterprise Institute.

STORM CLOUD: Washington is getting ready to restrict Chinese companies’ access to U.S. cloud-computing services, the Wall Street Journal’s YUKA HAYASHI and JOHN MCKINNON reported Tuesday.

If the rule is adopted, U.S. cloud service providers like Amazon and Microsoft would likely be required to seek government permission before offering services that use advanced artificial intelligence chips to Chinese customers, people familiar with the situation told WSJ. Such a move could ease national security concerns that Chinese AI companies bypass export controls rules by using cloud services.

The restriction would very likely anger Beijing as it competes with the U.S. to become the world’s technology superpower. China unveiled new measures against the U.S. on Monday, announcing export controls on metals used for advanced chip manufacturing.

RADAR UPGRADE: Britain’s defense ministry awarded BAE Systems and Leonardo U.K. a $1.1 billion five-year deal to complete the development and integration of a new radar system for the country’s Typhoon combat jets.

In an announcement Tuesday, the ministry said the European Common Radar System Mk2 planned for the Typhoon batch 3 fighters will be part of the nation’s $3 billion investment plan to upgrade equipment in the Royal Air Force’s jets.

The investment “ensures Typhoon will continue to remain a potent weapons capability and enable it to counter emerging threats until 2040 and beyond,” the ministry said.

GONE MISSING: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) highlight some aspects of the HASC-approved National Defense Authorization Act you might have missed. Here are a few of the highlights:

Ukraine watchdog: HASC signed off on an amendment from Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) to establish a special inspector general to review how assistance to Ukraine is spent. Though easily and quietly adopted, the move is a win for many Ukraine aid skeptics who argue tens of billions in assistance hasn’t been subjected to thorough oversight.

DIU written in stone: The bill would codify the Silicon Valley-based outpost charged with harnessing commercial technology and partnering high-tech firms with the military: the Defense Innovation Unit. After Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN in May told DIU’s director to report to him directly instead of the undersecretary for research and engineering, the bill would set that move into law.

Border surplus: The bill requires the Pentagon to submit a plan for unused border wall materials, outlining how it will use, transfer or donate them to states on the U.S.-Mexico border. SASC ranking member ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.) and Republican colleagues have pressed the administration on the issue since learning DOD spends $130,000 each day to store unused border wall panels, for a total exceeding $300 million since Biden halted construction of the wall in 2021.

Pros can read the full rundown.

LAST SECOND RAIN CHECK: Beijing abruptly canceled a visit by European Union top diplomat JOSEP BORRELL scheduled for later this week, the AP’s SIMINA MISTREANU reports.

China didn’t give a reason why it called off the July 10 visit, but Beijing and Brussels have disagreed recently on several issues including trade, human rights and the Ukraine war. Those topics were all on the meeting’s agenda, EU Ambassador to China JORGE TOLEDO said in a statement.

— FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: U.S. Air Force Col. NAOMI HENIGIN has been named senior military assistant to the assistant secretary of the Air Force for manpower and reserve affairs. She most recently was chief for the promotions and evaluations branch of the Air Force.

— GILLIAN EVANS is now special assistant to the director of the Office of Management and Budget. She most recently was a program examiner for the national security division at OMB.

— RIP JAMES DOBBINS, a veteran diplomat and leading scholar-practitioner of nation building. He died on July 3.

— Foreign policy experts, POLITICO: Ukraine Needs a Roadmap to NATO Membership ASAP

— LAI CHING-TE, The Wall Street Journal: My plan to preserve peace in the Taiwan Strait

— LYRIC LI and MARÍA LUISA PAÚL, The Washington Post: What does the Barbie movie have to do with the South China Sea dispute?

— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: Repel, Don’t Expel: Strengthening NATO’s Defense and Deterrence in the Baltic States

— Center for the National Interest, 11 a.m.: What are the Perils and Promise of Artificial Intelligence?

— Center for American Progress, 11:30 a.m.: India’s Backsliding Democracy

— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1 p.m.: The European Union’s Enlargement Conundrum

— Defense Priorities, 2 p.m.: NATO or neutrality: Assessing security guarantees for Ukraine

— Washington Post Live, 3 p.m.: Putin’s Hold on Power and Russia’s Future

Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who only delivers bad news when no one else will notice.

We also thank our producer, Sinobia Aiden, who we only say good things about.