The COVID-19 pandemic, tanking markets and prompting fears of recession, has blindsided the 2020 campaign season, imperiling President Trump’s reelection. But Senate Republicans working to keep their majority in November are eyeing a different threat -- former Vice President Joe Biden’s sudden revival in the Democratic primary race. Biden, a doubted and dismissed phoenix rocketing out of the ash pile, went from left-for-dead to presumptive nominee in an unprecedented 11-day sweep. Just before the South Carolina primary Republicans had already begun celebrating the hoped-for nomination of Sen. Bernie Sanders -- and according to all the polls, Democratic voters were poised to help them. With Sanders as the nominee, House Republicans could hope to take the majority back, and Senate Republicans could preserve their majority, and maybe even grow it. Yet the furious resuscitation of Biden’s political fortunes has not only positioned his party more strongly against Trump in the general election, but suddenly scrambled the Senate map. Four Republicans up for reelection are now officially behind their challengers (or their most likely challengers) by four percentage points or more. And Biden’s numbers against an incumbent Trump show he is stronger than Hillary Clinton ever was in 2016 against the insurgent outsider most Americans expected would lose. More important than his wins against Sanders have been the underlying numbers behind Biden’s success this past week. In a majority of the primaries, he is winning a broad and deep coalition that threatens Republicans’ ability to hold the Senate and the White House. With black voters, suburban voters, white voters without a college degree,  white voters with a college degree, union and non-union, Republicans and independents, Biden’s breadth of support is remarkable.  In just days, Republicans went from feeling bullish about preserving their majority in the upper chamber to suddenly staring at potential losses across the board in stark relief. Only Sen. Lindsey Graham was willing to be blunt, saying while he thought Trump still had the edge, Biden would be “tough to beat.”  The most vulnerable GOP incumbent is Sen. Cory Gardner of Colorado, who has run consistently behind John Hickenlooper in polling since the former governor announced a run against him. Another contender in this year’s Democratic primary who had refused a Senate bid but changed his mind when Biden surged is Montana Gov. Steve Bullock. He won his red-state race in 2016 when Trump did as well, and will now challenge Sen. Steve Daines. And for the most bipartisan member of the U.S. Senate, this cycle started out well but has turned into the fight of Susan Collins’ life. A Public Policy Poll in Maine a year ago showed her with the edge over her likely opponent, 51%-33%, but she is now behind the Democrat there, 47%-43%. Collins’ approval rating is down among Maine voters, who chose Clinton over Trump in 2016 by 57%-33%. (Though her approval with Trump voters rose after impeachment to 59%-26%.)  A new PPP survey shows Arizona Sen. Martha McSally behind Mark Kelly, 47%-42%, which hasn’t budged much from her standing in PPP’s January survey when Kelly was besting her 46%-42%. The poll shows poor approve/disapprove (37%-46%) numbers for McSally, who lost her Senate race in 2018 against Kyrsten Sinema but was then appointed to the late Sen. John McCain’s seat. Independents in that poll chose Kelly, 50%-29%. In the new OH Predictive Insights poll, Kelly is ahead by 49%-42% with 8% undecided and independents favoring him, 58%-29%.  Trump is unpopular in Arizona, a state he needs to hold this fall, and Maine, which he lost in 2016 by only three percentage points. Trump's approval in Maine is 42%-56% and in Arizona it's 45%-51%.  In North Carolina, Democrats secured their preferred nominee when last week Cal Cunningham beat out a more progressive candidate Republicans were spending money to help nominate. Cunningham already leads incumbent Thom Tillis by 48%-43% in an NBC-Marist poll.  Biden leads Trump in polling in all three of these swing states -- Arizona, North Carolina and Maine.  In addition to the four most embattled senators, other campaigns will tax the time and money of the GOP in races that favor Republicans but Democrats could win in a wave election. In Iowa, Sen. Joni Ernst has seen her approval drop 10 points in the last year, when she was at 57%-47%. While 41% of voters, according to the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll, said they would definitely vote to reelect her, 31% said they would definitely not. Though the Hawkeye State is seen as more reliably Republican than a battleground, headwinds there for Ernst will require the GOP to invest heavily in a state President Obama won twice. In Georgia, Biden will attempt to turn out the coalition that has made him the presumptive nominee -- suburban moderates alienated from the GOP along with African Americans and non-college white moderates. In large numbers that group would imperil two Republican U.S. Senate seats there. This year, as Georgia has continued to grow more purple, not only is Trump ally Sen. David Perdue running for reelection, but Sen. Kelly Loeffler, appointed to the seat of former Sen. Johnny Isakson (who retired for health reasons), must run in a special election this November as well.  Texas will see an energized Democratic electorate as the party increased its turnout there in 2018 by more than 100% and Sen. Ted Cruz won by only 2.6 percentage points. The Texas GOP is trying to register 1 million new voters and is urging donors who have long sent their money around the country to please keep it in the Lonestar State. While Cruz said he believes Trump and John Cornyn will win Texas, he admitted “it will be hotly contested.”  Even in Kansas, Republicans will also be spending money they don't want to. Barbara Bollier, who was a Republican until a year ago, has a much better chance of beating Kris Kobach should he win the GOP nomination now that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has declined to run. Kobach lost his gubernatorial run in 2018 to Democrat Laura Kelly, who will be able to help Bollier’s campaign. While it isn’t likely Kansas will turn blue, precious resources will have to be deployed there.  The other unique liability Republicans contemplate -- but never discuss -- is the potential that Trump cannot help them at all, even in states and districts where he wins. Tim Carney, a conservative writer for the Washington Examiner, wrote in November 2019 that Trump drags down Republicans “like an anchor” because he makes Trump voters (but not Republicans) out of working-class independents and Democrats but makes Democratic voters out of Republicans and independents. Added to the mix is high Democratic motivation and turnout, which has left Republicans losing elections in 2017, 2018 and 2019 in states across the country, including red ones like Kentucky and Kansas. If voters, who still see Trump as the opposite of the establishment, turn out for the president -- but not Tillis -- this fall in North Carolina, Tillis loses. This is because the voters someone like Tillis needs to count on are gone. “While Trump didn’t bring working class white-America into the GOP, he has caused a partisan realignment elsewhere: driving upper-middle class white America out of the GOP,” wrote Carney.  But Republicans are stuck with Trump. Stray and lose the base, or stay and fear the low ceiling as former Republicans stay home or vote Democratic. Currently, GOP senators are not only tied to him but most of their approval numbers are stuck in the low 40s, as are the president’s. And the answer to the coattails question will decide the Senate majority in November.  To mitigate against losses, Republicans are hoping Sen. Doug Jones will surrender his Senate seat in Alabama -- very likely -- and that John James can topple Sen. Gary Peters in Michigan. Biden’s performance in Tuesday’s primary is good news for Peters, not James. Voters in reliably Republican Livingston County, outside of Detroit, turned out in droves for Biden Tuesday, worrying Republicans who see Biden assembling the same coalition that elected Democrat Rep. Elissa Slotkin to that district in 2018 in a suburban-fueled wave. Trump had won the county by 30 points in 2016 but turnout increased there by more than 50% this week. And the day before Michigan voted, the Republican mayor of the all-important Macomb County -- home of the “Reagan Democrats” whom Obama and then Trump won -- announced that though he voted for Trump in 2016 he was now supporting Biden.  Collectively there are headwinds facing all Senate GOP incumbents, from the coronavirus to the impeachment trial Senate Republicans held without witnesses. It was an audacious gambit for Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who knew a sham trial -- in defiance of between 65% and 75% of the public wanting witnesses -- could cost Republicans their majority. Besides Collins’ vote in favor of witnesses, none of the vulnerable Republicans inoculated themselves with support of censure or even statements criticizing the president's conduct. Diagnosing Biden with dementia, or investigating his son Hunter, may not be enough to stop the bleeding.  This week a Quinnipiac poll comparing Biden to Trump showed why Republicans prayed for Sanders. On the question of who could better handle a crisis, Biden beat Trump, 56%-40%. On the question of whether they are honest, Biden beat Trump, 51%-33%. On the question of who cares for average Americans, Biden beat Trump, 59%-43%.  Biden’s appeal to a wide range of voters, who are turning out in surprisingly high numbers, shows voters are afraid of a second term of Trump. Republicans hoped Sanders the socialist would be scarier. Biden has problems as a candidate, and he may not win. But right now the only people Joe Biden scares are Republican incumbents. Source: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

PORTLAND, Maine (AP) — Republican Sen. Susan Collins officially launched her bid for reelection Wednesday, setting up an expensive and closely watched battle that’s starting against the backdrop of impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump. Collins made her formal announcement in an email to supporters, saying her “bipartisan commonsense approach” has been key to many legislative successes and will be important in an era of bitter partisanship. “The fundamental question I had to ask myself in making my decision was this: In today’s polarized political environment, is there still a role for a centrist who believes in getting things done through compromise, collegiality, and bipartisanship? I have concluded that the answer to this question is ‘yes’ and I will, therefore, seek the honor of continuing to serve as Maine’s United States senator.” Collins’ campaign for a fifth term could be her most difficult race yet and is projected to be the most expensive political race in Maine history. With the 2020 election less than one year away, the 66-year-old centrist is viewed as freshly vulnerable in a state where a tradition of political independence is clashing with rising polarization and partisanship. Democrats have targeted Collins for her votes for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and the GOP tax cut. They have also sought to link her to Trump and his brand of brash, divisive politics, and have accused her of failing to do enough to stand up to him. Trump is reviled by many in the state’s populous south, anchored by liberal Portland, but cheered in the rural north. Collins, who says she didn’t vote for Trump in 2016, is likely to face a dramatic vote on whether to convict the president in an impeachment trial in the Senate, a decision that will anger either Democrats or Republicans. Her statement was made hours before the House is expected to vote to impeach the president. The statement made no mention of impeachment proceedings but acknowledged the nation’s deep divisions. “To say that these are difficult and contentious times is most certainly an understatement. But our country has confronted much more challenging times in our history,” she said, pointing to the 75th anniversary of the World War II Battle of the Bulge this week. First elected in 1996, Collins has practiced a measured, moderate brand of politics aligned with the ethos of a state where unenrolled voters comprise the biggest voting bloc. Her popularity has held even as she remains the last New England Republican in Congress. She has shown her independence by trying to distance herself from Trump. She criticized his emergency declaration to build a wall at the southern border, stood up for the anonymous whistleblower under attack by Trump, and criticized the president’s withdrawal of troops from Syria. On impeachment, she has avoided weighing in by noting that she could become a juror in a trial in the Senate. Four Democrats vying for the party’s nomination to face her include Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon, who is backed by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. The others are activist Betsy Sweet, attorney Bre Kidman and former Google executive Ross LaJeunesse. Gideon raised $1 million more than Collins in the most recent reporting cycle. But Collins has raised more than double Gideon’s amount — $8.6 million — the largest of any political candidate in Maine history. The Democratic nominee is also expected to benefit from a crowdsourced nest egg topping $4 million. With money pouring into the race from dark-money groups, pundits suggest upward of $80 million to $100 million could be spent on this race before Election Day 2020.Source: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

A liberal dark-money group that popped up in Maine earlier this year and has already spent at least $1 million in attack ads against four-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins is drawing new scrutiny. A conservative-leaning watchdog group has filed an IRS complaint against Maine Momentum, a nonprofit whose leaders have direct ties to the state’s Democratic Party, as well as to Collins’ leading Democratic opponent, Sara Gideon. In a letter to IRS Commissioner Charles Rettig, the Foundation for Accountability and Civic Trust, or FACT, argues that Maine Momentum is violating its 501(c)(4) nonprofit tax status by engaging in a “consistent pattern of activities and public admissions” that show it’s acting as an arm of the Democratic Party rather than serving the public good, as nonprofit tax laws require. The complaint alleges that Maine Momentum, which calls itself a tax-exempt “grassroots advocacy effort” not required to disclose its donors, in reality is operating for the “substantial private benefit of the Democratic Party and Maine’s 2020 Democratic candidates for Senate instead of serving the public interest by promoting social welfare of the general public.” Under IRS law, groups formed as 501(c)(4)s cannot stand in support or against any politician, whether done indirectly or directly. They are allowed to participate in minimal political activities, but those activities cannot be the sole focus of the organization. Since the Supreme Court’s 2010 Citizens United case, which opened the floodgates for unions and corporations to spend unlimited amounts of money on ads and other efforts to influence voters, dark-money groups on the right and left have proliferated with little IRS regulation and enforcement. When it comes to Maine Momentum, FACT argues that the organization is operating well outside the boundaries of the law. “Section 501(c)(4) of the Internal Revenue Code maintains the integrity of social welfare organizations, as well as citizens’ confidence in their efforts,” Kendra Arnold, FACT’s executive director, said in a statement to RealClearPolitics. “These organizations are supposed to promote the social welfare of the general public not engage in overtly partisan politics, and there are many facts in this case which bring into question Maine Momentum’s execution of this requirement.” The IRS complaint refers to quotes by one of the group’s leaders in a Portland Press Herald article describing its “sole focus” as “advocacy and accountability and public education” about Collins and her reelection campaign, part of a “multipronged strategy” by national Democratic operatives to defeat her. The complaint also highlights several of the group’s direct ties to the Maine Democratic Party and Collins’ top Democratic opponent, Maine House Speaker Gideon. Christopher Glynn, the spokesman for Maine Momentum, had worked as recently as June for Gideon. Before that, he served as a spokesman for the Maine Democratic Party. The group’s executive director, Willy Ritch, previously worked as the spokesperson for Maine Democratic Rep. Chellie Pingree. Lily Herrmann, the group’s community organizing and outreach director, also previously worked for the state Democratic Party and served as the co-president of the Colby College Democrats and chair of the Waterville Democratic Committee. Hermann’s LinkedIn profile, the complaint notes, mentions her participation in a candidate training program run by Emerge Maine, a group that was forced to convert to a 527 political organization after the IRS denied its tax exemption in 2011 because its activities violated the private benefit rules for 501(c)(4) organizations by benefiting only the Democratic Party. Emerge Maine also has strong ties to Gideon, who is a self-described alumna of the group’s 2012 program and has credited it for her start in politics. The group honored her as its “Woman of the Year” in June and its founder hosted a San Francisco fundraiser for Gideon’s Senate campaign in August. Neither Maine Momentum nor the Gideon campaign immediately responded to a request for comment. Maine Momentum has generated a flurry of media stories after it dropped $1.5 million in misleading attack ads against Collins over the summer. One of the television ads earned three Pinocchios from the Washington Post. It accused the centrist Republican of putting federal programs for seniors and retirees in harm’s way while giving big corporations massive tax cuts. The ad quotes “David,” who says he’s a cancer survivor and calls on viewers to tell Collins to “stop risking” Social Security and Medicare. Moments later, the ad asserts that Collins voted to give “tax breaks to corporations and then took donations from them.” The Collins campaign has decried the ad as flat-out wrong, arguing that the longtime lawmaker worked to protect Medicare during the tax debate and tied her vote for the tax-cut package to a deal that included provisions ensuring that Medicare wouldn’t be jeopardized. After a lengthy explanation, the Post confirmed that the ad included “a significant factual error and/or obvious contradictions.” Team Collins says the senator hasn’t taken money directly from corporations because doing so is illegal, although she does accept money from corporate political action committees, which she reports, as required, on her Federal Election Commission filings It’s Gideon and the outside groups supporting her that aren’t being transparent about their funding, they counter. “When the former Democratic aides who are running those ads are asked, ‘Who’s paying your salary?’ They have refused to say,” Collins said in the public radio interview in early September. “I think the people of Maine have a right to know. … Just as I have to disclose all of my contributions to the [Federal Election Commission], I think they should have to disclose the source of where their money is coming from, whether they are for me or against me. But [the ads] have all been against me so far.” The FACT complaint also points out that Maine Momentum formed as a nonprofit in April 2019 but launched its public presence within a day of Gideon declaring her candidacy for the Senate, which took place June 24. One week later, the complaint alleges, Maine Momentum launched the 16 Counties Coalition, a project to “pressure Republican Sen. Susan Collins on issues likely to resonate with moderate voters.” Within the first two weeks of its launch, Ritch told the Press Herald that the group would be using “advertising, social media, and community organizing to encourage Collins to start putting families and working Mainers ahead of her special interest supporters.” The complaint also cites the 16 Counties Coalition website as describing its mission in partisan terms. “Our coalition is made up of concerned residents living with the consequences of the Republican-controlled Senate’s policies, which reward wealthy donors at our expense.” Maine Momentum and the 16 Counties Coalition are also running digital ads and hitting Collins on Twitter and Facebook. Roughly 85% of the tweets by 16 Counties Coalition, the complaint alleges, have featured attacks on Collins and the only account the group’s Twitter handle follows is Collins’ Twitter account. Source: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/