U.S. Rep. Jacky Rosen (D) defeated incumbent Sen. Dean Heller (R) and three others in the general election on November 6, 2018, to represent Nevada in the United States Senate.
Thirty-five of the 100 seats in the United States Senate were up for election in 2018, including two seats up for special election. Republicans gained four previously Democratic-held seats and Democrats gained two previously Republican-held seats, resulting in a net gain of two seats for the Republican Party and a 53-seat majority in the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the chamber in the 116th Congress. At the time of the election, Republicans held a 51-seat Senate majority. Democrats held 47 seats, and the two independents caucused with them. Democrats faced greater partisan risk in 2018, as they were defending 26 seats while Republicans were only defending nine. Democrats had to defend seats in 10 states Donald Trump (R) won. The GOP defended one Senate seat in a state Hillary Clinton (D) won.
That one Senate seat was held by Dean Heller. He was appointed in 2011 and won in the 2012 election by 1.2 percentage points. Clinton won Nevada by 2.4 percentage points in 2016. The Senate race was rated as a Toss-up by ratings outlets. The Hill listed this among 10 U.S. Senate seats it considered most likely to flip in 2018.
Third-party and independent candidates included Kamau Bakari (Independent American Party), Libertarian Tim Hagan, and independent Barry Michaels.
Throughout September and October 2018, 10 polls found Heller and Rosen tied within the polls' margins of error.
U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Heller (R) v. Rosen (D) v. Hagan (L)
Poll | Poll sponsor | Dean Heller | Jacky Rosen | Tim Hagan | Undecided/None | Margin of error | Sample size |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SSRS October 24-29, 2018 | CNN | 45% | 48% | 2% | 4% | +/-4.8 | 622 |
NBC/Marist Sept. 30-Oct. 3, 2018 | N/A | 44% | 42% | 8% | 6% | +/-5.5 | 574 |
SSRS September 25-29, 2018 | CNN | 43% | 47% | 4% | 5% | +/-4.6 | 693 |
AVERAGES | 44% | 45.67% | 4.67% | 5% | +/-4.97 | 629.67 |
U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Heller (R) v. Rosen (D) (with "Other" and "Don't know" options)
Poll | Poll sponsor | Dean Heller | Jacky Rosen | Other | Don't know | Margin of error | Sample size |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ipsos/Reuters/UVA October 12-19, 2018 | N/A | 47% | 41% | 8% | 4% | +/-3.3 | 1,137 |
U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Heller (R) v. Rosen (D)
Poll | Poll sponsor | Dean Heller | Jacky Rosen | Undecided/None | Margin of error | Sample size |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College November 1-4, 2018 | N/A | 45% | 49% | 4% | +/-3.0 | 1,197 |
Public Policy Polling October 15-16, 2018 | Protect Our Care | 46% | 48% | 7% | +/-3.9 | 648 |
Vox Populi (Democrat vs. Republican only, no undecided option) October 13-15, 2018 | N/A | 44% | 44% | 0% | +/-3.7 | 614 |
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 8-10, 2018 | N/A | 47% | 45% | 7% | +/-4.0 | 642 |
NBC/Marist Sept. 30-Oct. 3, 2018 | N/A | 46% | 44% | 9% | +/-5.5 | 574 |
Ipsos September 7-17, 2018 | N/A | 46% | 43% | 8% | +/-3.7 | 1,039 |
Gravis September 11-12, 2018 | N/A | 45% | 47% | 8% | +/-3.7 | 700 |
Public Policy Polling August 20-21, 2018 | Protect Our Care | 43% | 48% | 9% | +/-4.3 | 500 |
Suffolk University July 24-29, 2018 | N/A | 41% | 40% | 9% | +/-4.4 | 500 |
AVERAGES | 44.78% | 45.33% | 6.78% | +/-4.02 | 712.67 |
U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Heller (R) v. Rosen (D) v. Hagan (L) v. Bakari (Independent American) v. Michaels (Independent)
Poll | Dean Heller | Jacky Rosen | Tim Hagan | Kamau Bakari | Barry Michaels | Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Suffolk University September 5-10, 2018 | 41% | 42% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 9% | +/-4.4 | 500 |
U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Heller (R) v. Rosen (D)
Poll | Dean Heller (R) | Jacky Rosen (D) | Undecided | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling April 30-May 1, 2018 | 42% | 44% | 14% | +/-3.9 | 637 |
Axios/Survey Monkey April 2-23, 2018 | 44% | 50% | 6% | +/-5.0 | 1,332 |
Mellman Group April 12-19, 2018 | 40% | 39% | 21% | +/-4.0 | 600 |
Public Policy Polling March 15-17, 2018 | 39% | 44% | 17% | +/-3.7 | 720 |
Public Policy Polling June 23-25, 2017 | 41% | 42% | 17% | +/-3.9 | 648 |
Republican primary
U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Republican primary
Poll | Danny Tarkanian | Dean Heller | Undecided | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
JMC Analytics October 24-26, 2017 | 44% | 38% | 17% | +/-4.4 | 500 |
JMC Analytics August 24-25, 2017 | 39% | 31% | 31% | +/-3.7 | 700 |
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jacky Rosen | Democratic Party | $26,242,994 | $26,079,221 | $179,032 | As of December 31, 2018 |
Dean Heller | Republican Party | $12,888,303 | $14,070,169 | $184,416 | As of December 31, 2018 |
Barry Michaels | Independent | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available |
Kamau Bakari | Independent American Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available |
Tim Hagan | Libertarian Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available |
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018.
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
U.S. Senate, Nevada General Election, 2016
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Catherine Cortez Masto | 47.1% | 521,994 | |
Republican | Joe Heck | 44.7% | 495,079 | |
N/A | None of these candidates | 3.8% | 42,257 | |
Independent American | Tom Jones | 1.5% | 17,128 | |
Independent | Thomas Sawyer | 1.3% | 14,208 | |
Independent | Tony Gumina | 1% | 10,740 | |
Independent | Jarrod Williams | 0.6% | 6,888 | |
Total Votes | 1,108,294 | |||
Source: Nevada Secretary of State |
On November 6, 2012, incumbent Dean Heller (R) won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Shelley Berkley (D) and David Lory VanderBeek (Independent American Party) in the general election.
U.S. Senate, Nevada, General Election, 2012
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Shelley Berkley | 44.7% | 446,080 | |
Republican | Dean Heller Incumbent | 45.9% | 457,656 | |
Independent American Party of Nevada | David Lory VanderBeek | 4.9% | 48,792 | |
N/A | None of these candidates | 4.5% | 45,277 | |
Total Votes | 997,805 | |||
Source: Nevada Secretary of State "U.S. Senate Results" |
On November 2, 2010, Reid won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Sharron Angle (R), None of the Above, Scott Ashjian (Tea Party), Timothy Fasano (Independent American), and independent candidates Michael L. Haines, Jesse Holland, Jeffery C. Reeves, and Wil Stand.
U.S. Senate, Nevada General Election, 2010
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Harry Reid Incumbent | 50.3% | 362,785 | |
Republican | Sharron Angle | 44.5% | 321,361 | |
None of the Above | - | 2.2% | 16,174 | |
Tea Party | Scott Ashjian | 0.8% | 5,811 | |
Independent | Michael L. Haines | 0.6% | 4,261 | |
Independent American | Timothy Fasano | 0.4% | 3,185 | |
Independent | Jesse Holland | 0.4% | 3,175 | |
Independent | Jeffery C. Reeves | 0.3% | 2,510 | |
Independent | Wil Stand | 0.3% | 2,119 | |
Total Votes | 721,381 |
Demographic data for Nevada
Nevada | U.S. | |
---|---|---|
Total population: | 2,883,758 | 316,515,021 |
Land area (sq mi): | 109,781 | 3,531,905 |
Gender | ||
Female: | 49.7% | 50.8% |
Race and ethnicity** | ||
White: | 69% | 73.6% |
Black/African American: | 8.4% | 12.6% |
Asian: | 7.7% | 5.1% |
Native American: | 1.1% | 0.8% |
Pacific Islander: | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Two or more: | 4.4% | 3% |
Hispanic/Latino: | 27.5% | 17.1% |
Education | ||
High school graduation rate: | 85.1% | 86.7% |
College graduation rate: | 23% | 29.8% |
Income | ||
Median household income: | $51,847 | $53,889 |
Persons below poverty level: | 17.8% | 11.3% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Nevada. |
As of July 2016, Nevada' three largest cities were Las Vegas (pop. est. 640,000), Henderson (pop. est. 300,000), and Reno (pop. est. 250,000).