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Nevada, U.S. Senate


U.S. Rep. Jacky Rosen (D) defeated incumbent Sen. Dean Heller (R) and three others in the general election on November 6, 2018, to represent Nevada in the United States Senate.

Thirty-five of the 100 seats in the United States Senate were up for election in 2018, including two seats up for special election. Republicans gained four previously Democratic-held seats and Democrats gained two previously Republican-held seats, resulting in a net gain of two seats for the Republican Party and a 53-seat majority in the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the chamber in the 116th Congress. At the time of the election, Republicans held a 51-seat Senate majority. Democrats held 47 seats, and the two independents caucused with them. Democrats faced greater partisan risk in 2018, as they were defending 26 seats while Republicans were only defending nine. Democrats had to defend seats in 10 states Donald Trump (R) won. The GOP defended one Senate seat in a state Hillary Clinton (D) won.

That one Senate seat was held by Dean Heller. He was appointed in 2011 and won in the 2012 election by 1.2 percentage points. Clinton won Nevada by 2.4 percentage points in 2016. The Senate race was rated as a Toss-up by ratings outlets. The Hill listed this among 10 U.S. Senate seats it considered most likely to flip in 2018.

Third-party and independent candidates included Kamau Bakari (Independent American Party), Libertarian Tim Hagan, and independent Barry Michaels.

Polls

Throughout September and October 2018, 10 polls found Heller and Rosen tied within the polls' margins of error.

U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Heller (R) v. Rosen (D) v. Hagan (L)

Poll Poll sponsor Republican Party Dean Heller Democratic Party Jacky RosenLibertarian Party Tim HaganUndecided/NoneMargin of errorSample size
SSRS
October 24-29, 2018
CNN 45%48%2%4%+/-4.8622
NBC/Marist
Sept. 30-Oct. 3, 2018
N/A 44%42%8%6%+/-5.5574
SSRS
September 25-29, 2018
CNN 43%47%4%5%+/-4.6693
AVERAGES 44% 45.67% 4.67% 5% +/-4.97 629.67

U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Heller (R) v. Rosen (D) (with "Other" and "Don't know" options)

Poll Poll sponsor Republican Party Dean Heller Democratic Party Jacky RosenOtherDon't knowMargin of errorSample size
Ipsos/Reuters/UVA
October 12-19, 2018
N/A 47%41%8%4%+/-3.31,137

U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Heller (R) v. Rosen (D)

Poll Poll sponsor Republican Party Dean Heller Democratic Party Jacky RosenUndecided/NoneMargin of errorSample size
Emerson College
November 1-4, 2018
N/A 45%49%4%+/-3.01,197
Public Policy Polling
October 15-16, 2018
Protect Our Care 46%48%7%+/-3.9648
Vox Populi (Democrat vs. Republican only, no undecided option)
October 13-15, 2018
N/A 44%44%0%+/-3.7614
NYT Upshot/Siena College
October 8-10, 2018
N/A 47%45%7%+/-4.0642
NBC/Marist
Sept. 30-Oct. 3, 2018
N/A 46%44%9%+/-5.5574
Ipsos
September 7-17, 2018
N/A 46%43%8%+/-3.71,039
Gravis
September 11-12, 2018
N/A 45%47%8%+/-3.7700
Public Policy Polling
August 20-21, 2018
Protect Our Care 43%48%9%+/-4.3500
Suffolk University
July 24-29, 2018
N/A 41%40%9%+/-4.4500
AVERAGES 44.78% 45.33% 6.78% +/-4.02 712.67

U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Heller (R) v. Rosen (D) v. Hagan (L) v. Bakari (Independent American) v. Michaels (Independent)

Poll Republican Party Dean Heller Democratic Party Jacky RosenLibertarian Party Tim HaganGrey.png Kamau BakariGrey.png Barry MichaelsUndecidedMargin of errorSample size
Suffolk University
September 5-10, 2018
41%42%2%2%2%9%+/-4.4500

U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Heller (R) v. Rosen (D)

Poll Dean Heller (R) Jacky Rosen (D)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Policy Polling
April 30-May 1, 2018
42%44%14%+/-3.9637
Axios/Survey Monkey
April 2-23, 2018
44%50%6%+/-5.01,332
Mellman Group
April 12-19, 2018
40%39%21%+/-4.0600
Public Policy Polling
March 15-17, 2018
39%44%17%+/-3.7720
Public Policy Polling
June 23-25, 2017
41%42%17%+/-3.9648


Republican primary

U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Republican primary

Poll Danny Tarkanian Dean HellerUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
JMC Analytics
October 24-26, 2017
44%38%17%+/-4.4500
JMC Analytics
August 24-25, 2017
39%31%31%+/-3.7700

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Jacky Rosen Democratic Party $26,242,994 $26,079,221 $179,032 As of December 31, 2018
Dean Heller Republican Party $12,888,303 $14,070,169 $184,416 As of December 31, 2018
Barry Michaels Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available
Kamau Bakari Independent American Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available
Tim Hagan Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018.

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Election history

2016

U.S. Senate, Nevada General Election, 2016

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngCatherine Cortez Masto 47.1% 521,994
Republican Joe Heck 44.7% 495,079
N/A None of these candidates 3.8% 42,257
Independent American Tom Jones 1.5% 17,128
Independent Thomas Sawyer 1.3% 14,208
Independent Tony Gumina 1% 10,740
Independent Jarrod Williams 0.6% 6,888
Total Votes 1,108,294
Source: Nevada Secretary of State

2012

On November 6, 2012, incumbent Dean Heller (R) won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Shelley Berkley (D) and David Lory VanderBeek (Independent American Party) in the general election.

U.S. Senate, Nevada, General Election, 2012

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Democratic Shelley Berkley 44.7% 446,080
Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDean Heller Incumbent 45.9% 457,656
Independent American Party of Nevada David Lory VanderBeek 4.9% 48,792
N/A None of these candidates 4.5% 45,277
Total Votes 997,805
Source: Nevada Secretary of State "U.S. Senate Results"

2010

On November 2, 2010, Reid won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Sharron Angle (R), None of the Above, Scott Ashjian (Tea Party), Timothy Fasano (Independent American), and independent candidates Michael L. Haines, Jesse Holland, Jeffery C. Reeves, and Wil Stand.

U.S. Senate, Nevada General Election, 2010

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngHarry Reid Incumbent 50.3% 362,785
Republican Sharron Angle 44.5% 321,361
None of the Above - 2.2% 16,174
Tea Party Scott Ashjian 0.8% 5,811
Independent Michael L. Haines 0.6% 4,261
Independent American Timothy Fasano 0.4% 3,185
Independent Jesse Holland 0.4% 3,175
Independent Jeffery C. Reeves 0.3% 2,510
Independent Wil Stand 0.3% 2,119
Total Votes 721,381

Demographics

Demographic data for Nevada

NevadaU.S.
Total population:2,883,758316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):109,7813,531,905
Gender
Female:49.7%50.8%
Race and ethnicity**
White:69%73.6%
Black/African American:8.4%12.6%
Asian:7.7%5.1%
Native American:1.1%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.6%0.2%
Two or more:4.4%3%
Hispanic/Latino:27.5%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:85.1%86.7%
College graduation rate:23%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$51,847$53,889
Persons below poverty level:17.8%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Nevada.

As of July 2016, Nevada' three largest cities were Las Vegas (pop. est. 640,000), Henderson (pop. est. 300,000), and Reno (pop. est. 250,000).