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U.S. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) defeated U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce (R) in the general election for governor of New Mexico on November 6, 2018. Incumbent Gov. Susana Martinez (R) was prevented by term limits from seeking a third term, leaving the seat open.
New Mexico had been under a divided government since 2011, with the Republican Party in control of the governorship and the Democratic Party in control of both chambers of the state Legislature. The state was also under divided triplex control, since the governor was a Republican while the attorney general and secretary of state were Democrats.
New Mexico was one of eight states conducting a gubernatorial election in 2018 that was carried by Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016 with a Republican occupying the governor's office. The race was identified by Politico as among the top ten gubernatorial races to watch for 2018.
The winner of this election stood to influence the state's redistricting process following the 2020 census. Under New Mexico state law, the state Legislature is responsible for drawing new maps for U.S. House and state legislative seats following the completion of the census. The governor has the power to veto these district map proposals.
New Mexico gubernatorial election, 2018
| Poll | Poll sponsor |  Lujan Grisham |
 Pearce | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc./Albuquerque Journal October 26-November 1, 2018 | N/A | 53% | 43% | 4% | +/-3.1 | 993 |
| Carroll Strategies October 29, 2018 | N/A | 51% | 46% | 3% | +/-2.8 | 1,200 |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research October 22-26, 2018 | Lujan Grisham | 53% | 44% | 3% | +/-4.0 | 600 |
| Emerson October 24-26, 2018 | N/A | 53% | 44% | 4% | +/-3.4 | 936 |
| Albuquerque Journal September 7-13, 2018 | N/A | 50% | 43% | 7% | +/-3.1 | 966 |
| Global Strategy Group August 27-30, 2018 | N/A | 52% | 42% | 5% | +/-4.0 | 601 |
| Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research August 18-22, 2018 | Lujan Grisham | 52% | 44% | 4% | +/-4.0 | 600 |
| SurveyUSA June 19-23, 2018 | N/A | 51% | 38% | 11% | +/-5.0 | 535 |
| The Tarrance Group April 9-12, 2018 | Pearce | 47% | 45% | 8% | +/-4.1 | 608 |
| AVERAGES | 51.33% | 43.22% | 5.44% | +/-3.72 | 782.11 |
The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage. Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.
Race ratings: New Mexico gubernatorial election, 2018
| Race tracker | Race ratings | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 5, 2018 | October 30, 2018 | October 23, 2018 | October 16, 2018 | |
| The Cook Political Report | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic |
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic |
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic |
In the 2014 gubernatorial election, incumbent Susana Martinez (R) defeated challenger Gary King (D).
Governor and Lieutenant Governor of New Mexico, 2014
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  Susana Martinez/John A. Sanchez Incumbent |
57.2% | 293,443 | |
| Democrat | Gary King/Debra Haaland | 42.8% | 219,362 | |
| Total Votes | 512,805 | |||
| Election results via New Mexico Secretary of State | ||||
In the 2010 gubernatorial election, Susana Martinez (R) defeated Diane Denish (D).
2010 New Mexico gubernatorial general election
| Party | Candidate | Vote Percentage | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | Diane Denish | 46.51% | |
| Republican Party |  Susana Martinez
|
53.33% | |
| Other | write-ins | 0.17% | |
| Total Votes | 601,752 | ||
Demographic data for New Mexico
| New Mexico | U.S. | |
|---|---|---|
| Total population: | 2,080,328 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 121,298 | 3,531,905 |
| Gender | ||
| Female: | 50.5% | 50.8% |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 73.2% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 2.1% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 1.4% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 9.1% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 3.3% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 47.4% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 84.2% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 26.3% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $44,963 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 24.7% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in New Mexico. | ||
As of July 2016, New Mexico's three largest cities were Albuquerque (pop. est. 560,000), Las Cruces (pop. est. 100,000), and Rio Rancho (pop. est. 96,000).
