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U.S. Sen. Jon Tester (D) defeated Montana State Auditor Matt Rosendale (R) and land surveyor Rick Breckenridge (L) in the general election on November 6, 2018, to represent Montana in the United States Senate.
Thirty-five of the 100 seats in the United States Senate were up for election in 2018, including two seats up for special election. Republicans gained four previously Democratic-held seats and Democrats gained two previously Republican-held seats, resulting in a net gain of two seats for the Republican Party and a 53-seat majority in the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the chamber in the 116th Congress. At the time of the election, Republicans held a 51-seat Senate majority. Democrats held 47 seats, and the two independents caucused with them. Democrats faced greater partisan risk in 2018, as they were defending 26 seats while Republicans were only defending nine. Democrats had to defend seats in 10 states Donald Trump (R) won. The GOP defended one Senate seat in a state Hillary Clinton (D) won.
Trump won Montana by 20 percentage points in the 2016 presidential election. That same year, incumbent Gov. Steve Bullock (D) won re-election by 3.8 percentage points. The last U.S. Senate election was in 2014 when U.S. Rep. Steve Daines (R) defeated Amanda Curtis (D) by 18 percentage points. Tester was first elected in 2006. In his 2012 re-election, the Libertarian candidate received 6.6 percent of the vote, nearly double the 3.7 percentage point margin separating Tester and Republican Denny Rehberg.
United States Senate election in Montana, 2018
| Poll | Poll sponsor | Jon Tester (D) | Matt Rosendale (R) | Other/Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Montana, Big Sky (October 10-18, 2018) | N/A | 49% | 39% | 12% | +/-4.33 | 533 |
| Montana State University, Billings (October 8-13, 2018) | N/A | 47% | 38% | 15% | +/-4.5 | 471 |
| Public Policy Polling (September 28, 2018) | Protect Our Care | 49% | 45% | 6% | +/-4.0 | 594 |
| Axis Research (September 17-19, 2018) | National Republican Senatorial Committee | 44% | 44% | 12% | +/-4.5 | 480 |
| Beneson Strategy Group (September 6-16, 2018) | AARP | 50% | 43% | 7% | +/-3.0 | 950 |
| YouGov (September 10- 14, 2018) | CBS News | 47% | 45% | 8% | +/-5.2 | 543 |
| WPA Intelligence (August 20- 22, 2018) | National Republican Senatorial Committee | 45% | 47% | 8% | +/-4.0 | 600 |
| Remington Research (July 8 - 10, 2018) | N/A | 49% | 46% | 5% | +/-2.0 | 2,581 |
| AVERAGES | 47.5% | 43.38% | 9.13% | +/-3.94 | 844 |
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Tester | Democratic Party | $18,686,615 | $19,757,020 | $480,574 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Matt Rosendale | Republican Party | $5,994,023 | $5,924,058 | $76,178 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Rick Breckenridge | Libertarian Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018.
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
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U.S. Senate, Montana General Election, 2014
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  Steve Daines |
57.8% | 213,709 | |
| Democratic | Amanda Curtis | 40.1% | 148,184 | |
| Libertarian | Roger Roots | 2.1% | 7,933 | |
| Total Votes | 369,826 | |||
| Source: Montana Secretary of State | ||||
U.S. Senate, Montana General Election, 2012
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jon Tester Incumbent |
48.6% | 236,123 | |
| Republican | Denny Rehberg | 44.9% | 218,051 | |
| Libertarian | Dan Cox | 6.6% | 31,892 | |
| Total Votes | 486,066 | |||
Demographic data for Montana
| Montana | U.S. | |
|---|---|---|
| Total population: | 1,032,073 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 145,546 | 3,531,905 |
| Gender | ||
| Female: | 49.7% | 50.8% |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 89.2% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 0.5% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 0.7% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 6.5% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 2.5% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 3.3% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 92.8% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 29.5% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $47,169 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 17% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Montana. | ||
As of July 2016, Montana's three largest cities were Billings (pop. est. 109,642), Missoula (pop. est. 73,340), and Great Falls (pop. est. 58,876).
