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Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) defeated U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) and three others in the general election on November 6, 2018, to represent Missouri in the United States Senate.
Thirty-five of the 100 seats in the United States Senate were up for election in 2018, including two seats up for special election. Republicans gained four previously Democratic-held seats and Democrats gained two previously Republican-held seats, resulting in a net gain of two seats for the Republican Party and a 53-seat majority in the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the chamber in the 116th Congress. At the time of the election, Republicans held a 51-seat Senate majority. Democrats held 47 seats, and the two independents caucused with them. Democrats faced greater partisan risk in 2018, as they were defending 26 seats while Republicans were only defending nine. Democrats had to defend seats in 10 states Donald Trump (R) won. The GOP defended one Senate seat in a state Hillary Clinton (D) won.
Trump won Missouri by 18.5 percentage points in 2016. McCaskill's 2012 re-election was the last time a Democrat won a statewide election in Missouri. In that election, McCaskill defeated U.S. Rep. Todd Akin (R) by 15.7 percentage points. In the 2016 Senate election, incumbent Sen. Roy Blunt (R) defeated Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander (D) by 2.8 percentage points.
U.S. Senate election in Missouri, 2018
| Poll | Poll sponsor | Josh Hawley (R) | Claire McCaskill (D) | Other/Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group (October 29-November 4, 2018) | N/A | 40% | 45% | 15% | +/-2.3 | 1,791 |
| Emerson College (November 1-3, 2018) | N/A | 49% | 46% | 5% | +/-3.8 | 732 |
| Remington Research Group (November 1-2, 2018) | Missouri Scout | 47% | 47% | 6% | +/-2.6 | 1,424 |
| Marist University (October 30-November 1, 2018) | NBC News | 44% | 47% | 9% | +/-5.2 | 600 |
| Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) (October 27-30, 2018) | Fox News | 43% | 43% | 14% | +/-3.5 | 741 |
| Cygnal (October 26-27, 2018) | N/A | 49% | 46% | 5% | +/-4.38 | 501 |
| Remington Research Group (October 24-25, 2018) | Missouri Scout | 49% | 45% | 6% | +/-2.6 | 1,376 |
| OnMessage Inc. (October 16-18, 2018) | Hawley campaign | 49% | 42% | 9% | +/-3.46 | 800 |
| Remington Research Group (October 17-18, 2018) | Missouri Scout | 47% | 46% | 7% | +/-2.7 | 1,215 |
| The Polling Company (October 11-13, 2018) | Citizens United | 50% | 47% | 3% | +/-4.0 | 600 |
| 1st Tuesday Campaigns (October 5-6, 2018) | N/A | 44% | 42% | 14% | +/-3.02 | 1,052 |
| Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics (September 27- October 7, 2018) | N/A | 45% | 44% | 11% | +/-3.0 | 1,111 |
| McLaughlin & Associates (September 29- October 2, 2018) | Missouri Rising Action | 52% | 44% | 4% | +/-4.0 | 600 |
| Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) (September 29- October 2, 2018) | Fox News | 43% | 43% | 13% | +/-3.5 | 805 |
| AVERAGES | 46.5% | 44.79% | 8.64% | +/-3.43 | 953.43 |
U.S. Senate election in Missouri, 2018
| Poll | Poll sponsor | Josh Hawley (R) | Claire McCaskill (D) | Other/Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SRSS Research (September 25- 29, 2018) | CNN | 44% | 47% | 9% | +/-4.3 | 756 |
| Remington Research (September 26- 27, 2018) | Missouri Scout | 48% | 46% | 6% | +/-2.5 | 1,555 |
| YouGov (September 10- 14, 2018) | CBS News | 45% | 45% | 10% | +/-3.3 | 1,104 |
| Trafalgar Group September 11-13, 2018 | N/A | 47% | 44% | 8% | +/-2.4 | 1,724 |
| Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) September 8-11, 2018 | Fox News | 41% | 44% | 15% | +/-3.5 | 675 |
| Marist University August 25-28, 2018 | NBC News | 40% | 44% | 16% | +/-4.8 | 568 |
| WPA Intelligence August 12-14, 2018 | Club for Growth | 48% | 41% | 11% | +/-4.4 | 501 |
| TJP Strategies August 8-9, 2018 | Missouri Scout | 47% | 47% | 6% | +/-2.3 | 1,785 |
| Remington Research July 7-8, 2018 | The Missouri Times | 48% | 46% | 6% | +/-3.2 | 1,034 |
| Gravis May 16, 2018 | Petersen campaign | 50% | 43% | 7% | +/-3.4 | 822 |
| OnMessage Inc. April 16-18, 2018 | Hawley campaign | 46% | 47% | 7% | +/-4.0 | 600 |
| Mason-Dixon Poll April 4-6, 2018 | N/A | 44% | 45% | 11% | +/-4.0 | 625 |
| Public Policy Polling January 8-9, 2018 | The Majority Institute | 44% | 45% | 11% | +/-3.2 | 965 |
| Remington Research January 3-4, 2018 | Missouri Scout | 49% | 45% | 6% | +/-2.9 | 1,112 |
| AVERAGES | 45.79% | 44.93% | 9.21% | +/-3.44 | 987.57 |
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claire McCaskill | Democratic Party | $37,714,658 | $38,254,850 | $241,329 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Josh Hawley | Republican Party | $11,946,032 | $11,470,517 | $475,515 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Craig O'Dear | Independent | $634,715 | $622,114 | $12,602 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Japheth Campbell | Libertarian Party | $1,785 | $1,784 | $0 | As of November 26, 2018 |
| Jo Crain | Green Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018.
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
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U.S. Senate, Missouri General Election, 2016
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  Roy Blunt Incumbent |
49.2% | 1,378,458 | |
| Democratic | Jason Kander | 46.4% | 1,300,200 | |
| Libertarian | Jonathan Dine | 2.4% | 67,738 | |
| Green | Johnathan McFarland | 1.1% | 30,743 | |
| Constitution | Fred Ryman | 0.9% | 25,407 | |
| N/A | Write-in | 0% | 95 | |
| Total Votes | 2,802,641 | |||
| Source: Missouri Secretary of State | ||||
U.S. Senate, Missouri, General Election, 2012
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Claire McCaskill Incumbent |
54.8% | 1,494,125 | |
| Republican | Todd Akin | 39.1% | 1,066,159 | |
| Libertarian | Jonathan Dine | 6.1% | 165,468 | |
| Write-in | Ted Kimzey | 0% | 15 | |
| Write-in | Bernard J. "Spark" Duraski, Jr. | 0% | 9 | |
| Write-in | William Dean | 0% | 6 | |
| Write-in | Bernie Mowinksi | 0% | 5 | |
| Write-in | Charlie L. Bailey | 0% | 4 | |
| Write-in | Arnie C. "AC" Dienoff | 0% | 2 | |
| Total Votes | 2,725,793 | |||
| Source: Missouri Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election" | ||||
Demographic data for Missouri
| Missouri | U.S. | |
|---|---|---|
| Total population: | 6,076,204 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 68,742 | 3,531,905 |
| Gender | ||
| Female: | 51% | 50.8% |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 82.6% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 11.5% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 1.8% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 0.4% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 2.4% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 3.9% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 88.4% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 27.1% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $48,173 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 18.2% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Missouri. | ||
As of July 2016, Missouri's three largest cities were Kansas City (pop. est. 488,943), St. Louis (pop. est. 308,626), and Springfield (pop. est. 167,376).
