Michigan, U.S. House, District 11

Former U.S. Treasury official Haley Stevens (D) defeated business owner Lena Epstein (R), public relations account executive Cooper Nye (I), and economist Leonard Schwartz (L) in the general election on November 6, 2018, for Michigan's 11th Congressional District.

All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party gained a net total of 40 seats, winning control of the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the U.S. House in the 116th Congress. Heading into the election, the Republican Party was in the majority holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven vacant seats. Democrats needed to win 23 GOP-held seats in 2018 to win control of the House. From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.

Incumbent David Trott (R), who was first elected in 2014, did not seek re-election in 2018, setting up a competitive race to replace him. In 2016, Trott was re-elected by 13 points. Although the district backed Barack Obama (D) in 2008, it voted for Mitt Romney (R) and Donald Trump (R) in the following presidential elections. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee included the district in its list of targets for 2018.

The district was 99 percent suburban at the time of the 2018 election, which, according to Roll Call, made it more likely to lean Democratic.

Polls

Michigan's 11th Congressional District, Epstein vs. Stevens

Poll	Haley Stevens (D)	Lena Epstein (R)	Undecided/Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size
Target Insyght October 15-17, 2018	48%	48%	3%	+/-4.5	500
New York Times Upshot/Siena College October 1-6, 2018	45%	38%	17%	+/-5	465

Michigan's 11th Congressional District, Epstein vs. Stevens

Poll	Poll sponsor	Haley Stevens (D)	Lena Epstein (R)	Leonard Schwartz (L)	Undecided/Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size
ALG Research October 10-14, 2018	Haley Stevens (D) campaign	44%	34%	4%	16%	+/-4.3	513

Michigan's 11th Congressional District Democratic primary, 2018

Poll	Poll sponsor	Tim Greimel	Haley Stevens	Suneel Gupta	Fayrouz Saad	Nancy Skinner	Dan Haberman	Undecided	Margin of error	Sample size
EPIC-MRA (July 23 - 24, 2018)	The Detroit Free Press	21%	17%	14%	10%	4%	0%	34%	+/-3.7	700
Target-Insyght (April 10 - 12, 2018)	Target-Insyght	8%	14%	13%	7%	0%	4%	54%	+/-4.5	500
AVERAGES		14.5%	15.5%	13.5%	8.5%	2%	2%	44%	+/-4.1	600

Michigan's 11th Congressional District Republican primary, 2018

Poll	Poll sponsor	Lena Epstein	Rocky Raczkowski	Klint Kesto	Mike Kowall	Kerry Bentivolio	Undecided	Margin of error	Sample size
Mitchell Research & Communications (July 30, 2018)	Michigan Information Research Services	27%	18%	11%	10%	14%	20%	+/-5.0	305
EPIC-MRA (July 23 - 24, 2018)	The Detroit Free Press	26%	19%	12%	8%	7%	28%	+/-3.7	700
AVERAGES		26.5%	18.5%	11.5%	9%	10.5%	24%	+/-4.35	502.5

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name	Party	Receipts*	Disbursements**	Cash on hand	Date
Haley Stevens	Democratic Party	$4,199,607	$4,184,089	$15,518	As of December 31, 2018
Lena Epstein	Republican Party	$2,723,099	$2,675,140	$47,958	As of December 31, 2018
Leonard Schwartz	Libertarian Party	$7,129	$1,644	$5,484	As of July 18, 2018
Cooper Nye	Independent	$0	$0	$0	Data not available
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. * According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." ** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Michigan from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Michigan Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Michigan every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Michigan 2000-2016

Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2016	Donald Trump	47.5%	Hillary Clinton	47.3%	0.2%
2012	Barack Obama	54.2%	Mitt Romney	44.7%	9.5%
2008	Barack Obama	57.4%	John McCain	41.0%	16.4%
2004	John Kerry	51.2%	George W. Bush	47.8%	3.4%
2000	Al Gore	51.3%	George W. Bush	46.2%	5.1%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Michigan from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Michigan 2000-2016

Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2014	Gary Peters	54.6%	Terri Lynn Land	41.3%	13.3%
2012	Debbie Stabenow	58.8%	Pete Hoekstra	38.0%	20.8%
2008	Carl Levin	62.7%	Jack Hoogendyk, Jr.	33.9%	28.8%
2006	Debbie Stabenow	56.9%	Michael Bouchard	41.3%	15.6%
2002	Carl Levin	60.6%	Rocky Raczkowski	37.9%	22.7%
2000	Debbie Stabenow	49.5%	Spence Abraham	47.9%	1.6%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Michigan.

Election results (Governor), Michigan 2000-2016

Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2014	Rick Snyder	50.9%	Mark Schauer	46.9%	4.0%
2010	Rick Snyder	58.1%	Virg Bernero	39.9%	18.2%
2006	Jennifer Granholm	56.4%	Dick DeVos	42.3%	14.1%
2002	Jennifer Granholm	51.4%	Dick Posthumus	47.4%	4.0%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Michigan in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Michigan 2000-2016

Year	Republicans	Republicans (%)	Democrats	Democrats (%)	Balance of power
2016	9	64.3%	5	35.7%	R+4
2014	9	64.3%	5	35.7%	R+4
2012	9	64.3%	5	35.7%	R+4
2010	9	60.0%	6	40.0%	R+3
2008	7	46.7%	8	53.3%	D+1
2006	8	53.3%	7	46.7%	R+1
2004	9	60.0%	6	40.0%	R+3
2002	9	60.0%	6	40.0%	R+3
2000	7	43.75%	9	56.25%	D+2

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Michigan Party Control: 1992-2019
No Democratic trifectas • 14 years of Republican trifectas

Year	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19
Governor	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D
Senate	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
House	D	S	S	R	R	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R

Demographics

Demographic data for Michigan

	Michigan	U.S.
Total population:	9,917,715	316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):	56,539	3,531,905
Gender
Female:	50.9%	50.8%
Race and ethnicity**
White:	79%	73.6%
Black/African American:	14%	12.6%
Asian:	2.7%	5.1%
Native American:	0.5%	0.8%
Pacific Islander:	0%	0.2%
Two or more:	2.6%	3%
Hispanic/Latino:	4.7%	17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:	89.6%	86.7%
College graduation rate:	26.9%	29.8%
Income
Median household income:	$49,576	$53,889
Persons below poverty level:	20%	11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Michigan.

As of July 2016, Michigan's three largest cities were Detroit (pop. est. 673,000), Grand Rapids (pop. est. 199,000), and Warren (pop. est. 135,000).