Former state Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer (D) defeated Michigan Attorney General Bill Schuette (R) and four other candidates in the general election on November 6, 2018, for Michigan's governorship. Activist Garlin Gilchrist II (D) was Whitmer's running mate, while state Rep. Lisa Posthumus Lyons (R) was Schuette's running mate.
Michigan came under divided government in the 2018 elections as Democrats won the governor's office and Republicans held the state legislature. Heading into the election, Michigan had been a Republican trifecta since 2010 when Republicans took control of the Michigan House of Representatives and the governorship and maintained control of the Michigan State Senate.
The winner of this election stood to influence the state's redistricting process following the 2020 census. Under Michigan state law, the state Legislature is responsible for drawing new maps for U.S. House and state legislative seats following the completion of the census. The governor has the power to veto these district map proposals.
Incumbent Gov. Rick Snyder (R), who was term-limited, was first elected in 2010 by 18.2 percentage points and re-elected in 2014 by 4.0 percentage points. Snyder was the only Republican to win a gubernatorial or U.S. Senate election in Michigan from 2000 to 2017. Donald Trump (R) won Michigan in the 2016 presidential election by 0.2 percentage points. He was the first Republican to win Michigan since George H.W. Bush in 1988. Of the past ten gubernatorial elections in Michigan, four have resulted in the seat changing hands. The last time a Michigan gubernatorial election was won by a candidate who shares a party with the outgoing incumbent was in 1968 when William Milliken (R) was elected to succeed George Romney (R).
Michigan was one of 36 states that held an election for governor in 2018. Democrats gained seven previously Republican-held seats, and Republicans gained one previously independent-held seat. Heading into the 2018 elections, there were 16 Democratic governors, 33 Republican governors, and one independent governor. In 2018, 26 of the 33 states with a Republican governor held a gubernatorial election, while nine out of the 16 states with a Democratic governor held a gubernatorial election. Seventeen of the 36 seats up for election were open seats (four Democratic, 12 Republican, and one independent), meaning that the sitting governor was not seeking re-election.
Third party candidates who ran included Jennifer Kurland (G), Bill Gelineau (L), Keith Butkovich (Natural Law), and Todd Schleiger (U.S. Taxpayers).
Michigan Governor 2018
Poll | Poll sponsor | Gretchen Whitmer | Bill Schuette | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mitchell Research & Communications (Nov. 4, 2018) | N/A | 54% | 40% | 6% | +/-3.7 | 701 |
Target Insyght (Oct. 22-24, 2018) | N/A | 48% | 44% | 8% | +/-3.0 | 800 |
Glengariff Group Inc. (Oct. 25-27, 2018) | The Detroit News and WDIV | 50% | 38% | 12% | +/-4.0 | 600 |
Mitchell Research and Communications (Oct. 25, 2018) | N/A | 48% | 43% | 9% | +/-5.0 | 400 |
EPIC-MRA (Oct. 18-23, 2018) | Detroit Free Press, WLNS-TV 6, WOOD-TV 8, WJRT-TV 12 | 46% | 41% | 13% | +/-4.0 | 600 |
ALG Research (Oct. 15-21, 2018) | Whitmer campaign | 47% | 36% | 17% | +/-3.3 | 906 |
Marketing Resource Group (Oct. 14-18, 2018) | N/A | 50% | 36% | 14% | +/-4.0 | 600 |
Mitchell Research & Communications (September 30-Oct. 7, 2018) | The Michigan Chamber of Commerce | 46% | 38% | 16% | +/-3.8 | 654 |
Glengariff Group Inc. (September 20-Oct. 2, 2018) | The Detroit News and WDIV | 47% | 35% | 18% | +/-4.0 | 600 |
EPIC-MRA (September 21-25, 2018) | The Detroit Free Press, WLNS TV 6, WOOD TV, and WJRT TV 12 | 45% | 37% | 18% | +/-4.0 | 600 |
Ipsos Public Affairs (September 14-21, 2018) | Thomson Reuters/University of Virginia | 52% | 31% | 26% | +/-3.3 | 1,150 |
Mitchell Research and Communications (September 12-13, 2018) | MIRS | 48% | 38% | 14% | +/-3.0 | 1,009 |
Target-Insyght (September 10-14, 2018) | MIRS | 50% | 41% | 9% | +/-3.0 | 800 |
Strategic National (September 8-9, 2018) | WJML | 49% | 39% | 12% | +/-3.1 | 1,000 |
AVERAGES | 48.57% | 38.36% | 13.71% | +/-3.66 | 744.29 |
Michigan Governor 2018
Poll | Poll sponsor | Gretchen Whitmer | Bill Schuette | Undecided/Other | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Glengariff Group Inc. (September 5-7, 2018) | The Detroit News and WDIV-TV | 50% | 36% | 14% | +/-4.0 | 400 |
Strategic National (August 13-14, 2018) | WJML | 45% | 36% | 19% | +/-3.7 | 700 |
The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage. Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.
Race ratings: Michigan gubernatorial election, 2018
Race tracker | Race ratings | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
November 5, 2018 | October 30, 2018 | October 23, 2018 | October 16, 2018 | |
The Cook Political Report | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic |
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic |
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic |
Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Michigan, 2014
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Rick Snyder/Brian Calley Incumbent | 50.9% | 1,607,399 | |
Democratic | Mark Schauer/Lisa Brown | 46.9% | 1,479,057 | |
Libertarian | Mary Buzuma/Scott Boman | 1.1% | 35,723 | |
U.S. Taxpayers | Mark McFarlin/Richard Mendoza | 0.6% | 19,368 | |
Green | Paul Homeniuk/Candace R. Caveny | 0.5% | 14,934 | |
Nonpartisan | Write-in votes | 0% | 50 | |
Total Votes | 3,156,531 | |||
Election results via Michigan Department of State |
Michigan Governor, 2010
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Rick Snyder | 58.1% | 1,874,834 | |
Democratic | Virg Bernero | 39.9% | 1,287,320 | |
Libertarian | Ken Proctor | 0.7% | 22,390 | |
Taxpayers | Stacey Mathia | 0.6% | 20,818 | |
Green | Harvey Mikkelson | 0.6% | 20,699 | |
Other | Write-ins | 0% | 27 | |
Total Votes | 3,226,088 |
Demographic data for Michigan
Michigan | U.S. | |
---|---|---|
Total population: | 9,917,715 | 316,515,021 |
Land area (sq mi): | 56,539 | 3,531,905 |
Gender | ||
Female: | 50.9% | 50.8% |
Race and ethnicity** | ||
White: | 79% | 73.6% |
Black/African American: | 14% | 12.6% |
Asian: | 2.7% | 5.1% |
Native American: | 0.5% | 0.8% |
Pacific Islander: | 0% | 0.2% |
Two or more: | 2.6% | 3% |
Hispanic/Latino: | 4.7% | 17.1% |
Education | ||
High school graduation rate: | 89.6% | 86.7% |
College graduation rate: | 26.9% | 29.8% |
Income | ||
Median household income: | $49,576 | $53,889 |
Persons below poverty level: | 20% | 11.3% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Michigan. |
As of July 2016, Michigan's three largest cities were Detroit (pop. est. 673,000), Grand Rapids (pop. est. 199,000), and Warren (pop. est. 135,000).