Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R) defeated former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D) and Ted Metz (L) in the general election on November 6, 2018, for Georgia's governorship.
Heading into the election, Georgia had been a Republican trifecta since 2004 when Republicans won control of the Georgia House of Representatives. Republicans took control of the governorship and the Georgia State Senate in 2002. Prior to 2002, Democrats had won every Georgia gubernatorial race since the Reconstruction era following the Civil War. Georgia maintained its Republican trifecta status in 2018.
The winner of this election stood to influence the state's redistricting process following the 2020 census. Under Georgia state law, the Georgia General Assembly is responsible for drawing new maps for U.S. House and state legislative seats following the completion of the census. The governor has the power to veto these district map proposals.
Kemp replaced term-limited Gov. Nathan Deal (R), who defeated former Gov. Roy Barnes (D) in 2010 by 10 percentage points and defeated state Sen. Jason Carter (D) in 2014 by 7.9 percentage points. Heading into the election, forecasters said the race was a toss-up or slightly favored Republicans. Abrams was the first black woman to secure a major party gubernatorial nomination in U.S. history and the first woman of any race to do so in Georgia history.
With three candidates on the ballot, it was possible that no candidate would receive more than 50 percent of the vote on November 6. The top-two finishers would have competed in a runoff election on December 4, 2018. The last general election runoff for a major statewide Georgia race was the 2008 Senate election where U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) defeated challenger Jim Martin (D) 58 percent to 42 percent in the runoff. As of 2018, there had never been a runoff election for Georgia governor. As of 2018, Georgia and Louisiana were the only states to hold general election runoffs.
Georgia was one of 36 states that held an election for governor in 2018. Democrats gained seven previously Republican-held seats, and Republicans gained one previously independent-held seat. Heading into the 2018 elections, there were 16 Democratic governors, 33 Republican governors, and one independent governor. In 2018, 26 of the 33 states with a Republican governor held a gubernatorial election, while nine out of the 16 states with a Democratic governor held a gubernatorial election. Seventeen of the 36 seats up for election were open seats (four Democratic, 12 Republican, and one independent), meaning that the sitting governor was not seeking re-election.
Georgia Governor election, 2018
Poll | Poll sponsor | Brian Kemp (R) | Stacey Abrams (D) | Ted Metz (L) | Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
20-20 Insights (October 31-November 2, 2018) | Southern Majority | 46% | 50% | 1% | 3% | +/-4.0 | 614 |
The Trafalgar Group (October 30-November 3, 2018) | N/A | 50% | 36% | 2% | 12% | +/-2.1 | 2,171 |
Cygnal (October 28-30, 2018) | N/A | 49% | 47% | 4% | 0% | +/-4.36 | 504 |
University of Georgia (October 28-30, 2018) | Atlanta Journal-Constitution/Channel 2 Action News | 47% | 47% | 2% | 5% | +/-3.0 | 1,091 |
Opinion Savvy (October 28-30, 2018) | Fox 5 Atlanta | 47% | 48% | 2% | 3% | +/-3.9 | 623 |
Opinion Savvy (October 21-22, 2018) | N/A | 48% | 48% | 1% | 3% | +/-3.4 | 824 |
Marist University (October 14-18, 2018) | NBC News | 46% | 45% | 4% | 5% | +/-4.8 | 554 |
Reuters/Ipsos/University of Virginia Center for Politics (October 4-11, 2018) | N/A | 47% | 46% | 2% | 5% | +/-3.4 | 1,088 |
University of Georgia (September 30-October 9, 2018) | Atlanta Journal-Constitution/Channel 2 Action News | 48% | 46% | 2% | 4% | +/-2.8 | 1,232 |
Public Policy Polling (October 5-6, 2018) | Georgia Engaged | 46% | 46% | 0% | 7% | +/-4.0 | 729 |
SurveyUSA (October 3-8, 2018) | 11 Alive News | 47% | 45% | 2% | 6% | +/-4.0 | 655 |
Landmark Communications September 2018 | Landmark Communications | 48% | 46% | 2% | 3% | +/-3.2 | 964 |
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (September 17-20, 2018) | Stacey Abrams for Governor | 42% | 48% | 3% | 7% | +/-4.1 | 603 |
University of Georgia (August 26 - September 4, 2018) | Atlanta Journal-Constitution/Channel 2 Action News | 45% | 45% | 2% | 8% | +/-3.1 | 1,020 |
AVERAGES | 46.86% | 45.93% | 2.07% | 5.07% | +/-3.58 | 905.14 |
The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage. Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.
Race ratings: Georgia gubernatorial election, 2018
Race tracker | Race ratings | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
November 5, 2018 | October 30, 2018 | October 23, 2018 | October 16, 2018 | |
The Cook Political Report | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Tilt Republican | Tilt Republican | Tilt Republican | Tilt Republican |
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
Governor of Georgia, 2014
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Nathan Deal Incumbent | 52.7% | 1,345,237 | |
Democratic | Jason Carter | 44.9% | 1,144,794 | |
Libertarian | Andrew Hunt | 2.4% | 60,185 | |
Total Votes | 2,550,216 | |||
Election results via Georgia Secretary of State |
Governor of Georgia, 2010
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Roy E. Barnes | 43% | 1,107,011 | |
Republican | Nathan Deal | 53% | 1,365,832 | |
Libertarian | John H. Monds | 4% | 103,194 | |
NA | Write-in | 0% | 124 | |
Total Votes | 2,576,161 |
Demographic data for Georgia
Georgia | U.S. | |
---|---|---|
Total population: | 10,199,398 | 316,515,021 |
Land area (sq mi): | 57,513 | 3,531,905 |
Gender | ||
Female: | 51.2% | 50.8% |
Race and ethnicity** | ||
White: | 60.2% | 73.6% |
Black/African American: | 30.9% | 12.6% |
Asian: | 3.6% | 5.1% |
Native American: | 0.3% | 0.8% |
Pacific Islander: | 0% | 0.2% |
Two or more: | 2.1% | 3% |
Hispanic/Latino: | 9.1% | 17.1% |
Education | ||
High school graduation rate: | 85.4% | 86.7% |
College graduation rate: | 28.8% | 29.8% |
Income | ||
Median household income: | $49,620 | $53,889 |
Persons below poverty level: | 21.1% | 11.3% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Georgia. |
As of July 2017, Georgia's three largest cities were Atlanta (pop. est. 470,000), Columbus (pop. est. 200,000), and Augusta (pop. est. 200,000).