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Former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis (R) defeated Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum (D) and four others in the general election on November 6, 2018, for Florida's governorship. Businessman Chris King (D) was Gillum's running mate. State Rep. Jeanette Nuñez (R) was DeSantis' running mate.
Florida remained a Republican trifecta in the 2018 elections, where Republicans won the governor's office and both chambers of the state legislature. Florida first became a Republican trifecta in 1998 when Jeb Bush (R) was elected governor. Republicans took control of the Florida House of Representatives in the 1996 election and the Florida State Senate in the 1994 election.
The winner of this election stood to influence the state's redistricting process following the 2020 census. Under Florida state law, the state legislature is responsible for drawing new maps for U.S. House seats following the completion of the census. The governor has the power to veto these district map proposals. The governor does not have veto power over state legislative districts, which are also drawn by the state Legislature.
Heading into the election, forecasters called this race a toss-up or said it slightly favored Democrats. Incumbent Gov. Rick Scott (R), who was term-limited, won the 2010 election by 1.2 percentage points and the 2014 election by 1 percentage point. Recent presidential elections have been closely contested as well. Donald Trump (R) won the 2016 presidential election by 1.2 percentage points, while Barack Obama (D) won the 2012 election by 0.9 percentage points and the 2008 election by 2.8 percentage points.
Florida was one of 36 states that held an election for governor in 2018. Democrats gained seven previously Republican-held seats, and Republicans gained one previously independent-held seat. Heading into the 2018 elections, there were 16 Democratic governors, 33 Republican governors, and one independent governor. In 2018, 26 of the 33 states with a Republican governor held a gubernatorial election, while nine out of the 16 states with a Democratic governor held a gubernatorial election. Seventeen of the 36 seats up for election were open seats (four Democratic, 12 Republican, and one independent), meaning that the sitting governor was not seeking re-election.
Third-party candidates and independents who ran included Darcy Richardson (Reform), Ryan Foley (I), Kyle Gibson (I), Raphael Herman (I), and Bruce Stanley (I).
Florida gubernatorial election, 2018
| Poll | Poll sponsor | Gillum (D) | DeSantis (R) | Other/undecided | Margin of error | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University October 29-November 4, 2018 | N/A | 50% | 43% | 7% | +/-3.5 | 1,142 |
| St. Pete Polls November 3-4, 2018 | Florida Politics | 50% | 45% | 5% | +/-1.8 | 3,088 |
| Marist University October 30-November 2, 2018 | NBC News | 50% | 46% | 4% | +/-5.0 | 595 |
| Targoz Market Research October 28-31, 2018 | N/A | 43% | 46% | 11% | +/-4.0 | 558 |
| Vox Populi Polling (undecided was not an option) October 27-30, 2018 | N/A | 47% | 44% | 9% | +/-3.7 | 696 |
| The Trafalgar Group October 29-30, 2018 | N/A | 48% | 46% | 6% | +/-1.9 | 2,543 |
| SRSS October 24-29, 2018 | CNN | 49% | 48% | 3% | +/-4.3 | 781 |
| Cygnal October 27-29, 2018 | N/A | 47% | 47% | 6% | +/-4.4 | 495 |
| Suffolk University October 25-28, 2018 | USA Today | 45% | 44% | 11% | +/-4.4 | 500 |
| University of North Florida October 23-26, 2018 | N/A | 49% | 43% | 8% | +/-3.0 | 1,051 |
| Siena College October 23-27, 2018 | New York Times | 48% | 43% | 9% | +/-4.0 | 737 |
| YouGov October 23-26, 2018 | CBS News | 47% | 46% | 7% | +/-4.0 | 991 |
| Ipsos October 17-25, 2018 | Reuters and the University of Virginia's Center for Politics | 50% | 44% | 6% | +/-3.4 | 1,069 |
| AVERAGES | 47.92% | 45% | 7.08% | +/-3.65 | 1,095.85 |
Florida gubernatorial general election, 2018
| Poll | Poll sponsor | Gillum (D) | DeSantis (R) | Other/undecided | Margin of error | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1892 October 20-22, 2018 | DeSantis campaign | 46% | 47% | 7% | +/-2.0 | 2,500 |
| Strategic Research Associates October 16-23, 2018 | Gray Television | 45% | 48% | 7% | +/-3.46 | 800 |
| Florida Atlantic University October 18-21, 2018 | N/A | 41% | 37% | 22% | +/-3.6 | 704 |
| Quinnipiac University October 17-21, 2018 | N/A | 52% | 46% | 2% | +/-3.5 | 1,161 |
| St. Pete Polls October 20-21, 2018 | Florida Politics | 47% | 46% | 7% | +/-2.5 | 1,575 |
| SurveyUSA October 18-21, 2018 | Bay News 9 Tampa and News 13 Orlando | 49% | 42% | 9% | +/-5.0 | 665 |
| SEA Polling & Strategic Design October 17-20, 2018 | N/A | 48% | 42% | 10% | +/-4.0 | 600 |
| SSRS October 16-20, 2018 | CNN | 54% | 42% | 4% | +/-4.2 | 759 |
| OnMessage Inc. October 14-18, 2018 | Rick Scott (R) for Senate | 44% | 46% | 10% | +/-2.09 | 2,200 |
| St. Pete Polls October 15-16, 2018 | Florida Politics | 47% | 46% | 7% | +/-2.2 | 1,974 |
| Florida Southern College Center for Polling and Policy Research October 1-5, 2018 | N/A | 47% | 44% | 9% | +/-4.49 | 476 |
| AVERAGES | 47.27% | 44.18% | 8.55% | +/-3.37 | 1,219.45 |
Florida gubernatorial general election, 2018
| Poll | Poll sponsor | Gillum (D) | DeSantis (R) | Other/undecided | Margin of error | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategic Research Associates, LLC. September 17-30, 2018 | WCTV-TV | 44% | 43% | 13% | +/-3.46 | 800 |
| St. Pete Polls September 29-30, 2018 | Florida Politics | 47% | 45% | 8% | +/-2.0 | 2,313 |
| Public Policy Polling September 28-30, 2018 | N/A | 48% | 44% | 8% | +/-4.0 | 779 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy September 24-27, 2018 | Leadership Florida and Florida Press Association | 45% | 44% | 11% | +/-3.5 | 815 |
| Quinnipiac University September 20-24, 2018 | Quinnipiac University | 54% | 45% | 1% | +/-4.0 | 888 |
| Cherry Communications September 19-24, 2018 | Florida Chamber of Commerce | 48% | 42% | 10% | +/-4.4 | |
| NBC News/Marist September 16-20, 2018 | NBC News | 48% | 43% | 8% | +/-4.7 | 600 |
| University of North Florida September 5-12, 2018 | N/A | 47% | 43% | 10% | +/-3.9 | 605 |
| Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics September 5-12, 2018 | Thomson Reuters and the University of Virginia Center for Politics | 50% | 44% | 6% | +/-3.5 | 1,000 |
| Florida Atlantic University September 13-16, 2018 | Florida Atlantic University | 41% | 39% | 20% | +/-3.3 | 850 |
| Cherry Communications September 6-9, 2018 | Florida Chamber of Commerce | 47% | 43% | 10% | +/-4.4 | 514 |
| St. Pete's Polls September 5-6, 2018 | Florida Politics | 48% | 47% | 5% | +/-2.1 | 2,240 |
| Quinnipiac University August 30-September 3, 2018 | Quinnipiac University | 50% | 47% | 3% | +/-4.3 | 785 |
| Public Policy Polling August 29-30, 2018 | Christian Ulvert | 48% | 43% | 9% | +/-3.6 | 743 |
| AVERAGES | 47.5% | 43.71% | 8.71% | +/-3.65 | 923.71 |
The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage. Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.
Race ratings: Florida gubernatorial election, 2018
| Race tracker | Race ratings | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 5, 2018 | October 30, 2018 | October 23, 2018 | October 16, 2018 | |
| The Cook Political Report | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Tilt Democratic | Tilt Democratic | Tilt Democratic | Tilt Democratic |
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Florida, 2014
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  Rick Scott/Carlos Lopez-Cantera Incumbent |
48.1% | 2,865,343 | |
| Democratic | Charlie Crist/Annette Taddeo-Goldstein | 47.1% | 2,801,198 | |
| Libertarian | Adrian Wyllie/Greg Roe | 3.8% | 223,356 | |
| No Party Affiliation | Glenn Burkett/Jose Augusto Matos | 0.7% | 41,341 | |
| No Party Affiliation | Farid Khavari/Lateresa Jones | 0.3% | 20,186 | |
| Nonpartisan | Write-in votes | 0% | 137 | |
| Total Votes | 5,951,561 | |||
| Election results via Florida Division of Elections | ||||
Florida Gubernatorial/Lt. Gubernatorial General Election, 2010
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Rick Scott/Jennifer Carroll |
48.9% | 2,619,335 | |
| Democratic | Alex Sink/Rod Smith | 47.7% | 2,557,785 | |
| Independent | Peter L. Allen/John E. Zanni | 2.3% | 123,831 | |
| No Party Affiliation | C.C. Reed/Larry Waldo, Sr. | 0.4% | 18,842 | |
| No Party Affiliation | Michael E. Arth/Al Krulick | 0.3% | 18,644 | |
| No Party Affiliation | Daniel Imperato/Karl Behm | 0.3% | 13,690 | |
| No Party Affiliation | Farid Khavari/Darcy G. Richardson | 0.1% | 7,487 | |
| Write-in | Josue Larouse/Valencia St. Louis | 0% | 121 | |
| Total Votes | 5,359,735 | |||
| Election results via Florida Department of State | ||||
Demographic data for Florida
| Florida | U.S. | |
|---|---|---|
| Total population: | 20,244,914 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 53,625 | 3,531,905 |
| Gender | ||
| Female: | 51.1% | 50.8% |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 76% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 16.1% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 2.6% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 2.4% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 23.7% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 86.9% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 27.3% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $47,507 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 19.8% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Florida. | ||
As of July 2017, Florida's three largest cities were Jacksonville (pop. est. 860,000), Miami (pop. est. 430,000), and Tampa (pop. est. 360,000).
