Democrats wrestle with 2020 mystery: Who’s the frontrunner now?
February 12, 2020New Hampshire has a cherished reputation for being a clarifying presidential contest, but Tuesday night’s first-in-the-nation primary made one thing clear: There is no clear frontrunner.
That means all the top candidates — and at least one lower-polling contender — still believe they have a path to victory.
“This race is wide open,” said Heather Hargreaves, Tom Steyer’s campaign manager, who added that the campaign is “preparing for a brand new contest with a diverse electorate” as the race shifts to Nevada and South Carolina.
Bernie Sanders’ slim victory in New Hampshire gives him the first official win of the 2020 cycle — and it comes on the heels of three national polls showing him leapfrogging former Vice President Joe Biden for the top spot.
But Pete Buttigieg, who finished a close second in New Hampshire, leads the delegate count. The former South Bend mayor left Iowa with the most delegates, though the caucuses remain too close to call and both campaigns have requested a recanvass.
Sanders and Buttigieg each won nine delegates Tuesday in New Hampshire. Third-place finisher Amy Klobuchar won six delegates, while Biden and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren left the state with none.
“Pete Buttigieg is one of the two frontrunners, and Amy Klobuchar has just shocked the establishment,” Howard Dean, the former Vermont governor and ex-Democratic National Committee chairman, said on CNN. “You have to say Bernie is a frontrunner because he’s got a much better organization and more money, but Buttigieg actually has more delegates right now. So in terms of numbers, he’s actually technically the frontrunner.”
With 96 percent of precincts reporting in New Hampshire, Sanders has nearly 26 percent of the vote, a far cry from the 60 percent he claimed in a one-on-one contest against Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Buttigieg is at 24 percent, followed by Klobuchar at almost 20 percent. Warren and Biden are at 9 percent and 8 percent, respectively, and Andrew Yang, Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet and former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick ended their campaigns after disappointing finishes.
Brian Fallon, Clinton’s former press secretary and executive director of Justice Democrats, argued that Sanders couldn’t repeat his 2016 numbers with such a large field. “That doesnt diminish the meaningfulness of him winning NH,” he tweeted. “Stop looking for reasons to ignore his frontrunner status.”
Jesse Lehrich, a Democratic strategist and former Clinton foreign policy spokesman, also declared that “Bernie is now the frontrunner.” The data-driven news site FiveThirtyEight agreed: Its morning headline read, in part, “Sanders Is The Front-Runner After New Hampshire.”
“The anointed frontrunner, who had the largest share of votes on lock for a year, is suddenly on his last legs,” Adam Jentleson, a former Harry Reid aide and Democratic strategist who is close to Warren’s campaign, tweeted of Biden. “Bernie is the new frontrunner, but has not cracked his ceiling. Amy and Pete, who've received the most favorable media attention, have no path to the nomination.”
Washington Lt. Gov. Cyrus Habib acknowledged that there are many media narratives out there. But what’s most important, he insisted, is that Buttigieg “has more delegates than any other candidate.” Delegates, after all, will determine who wins the nomination.
Even Rufus Gifford, former President Barack Obama’s finance director who is backing Biden, said Buttigieg is “of course” a frontrunner.
Bracing for poor results in New Hampshire after predicting on last week’s debate stage that he would “probably take a hit” there, Biden retreated on Tuesday night to South Carolina, where he told supporters that the overwhelmingly majority of African American and Latino voters have yet to cast ballots.
“It ain’t over, man,” Biden said. “We’re just getting started.”
Biden will campaign Friday through Sunday in Nevada, where Sanders could run into resistance.
“We’re excited that the race is moving into the place where diverse voters, people who are the base of the Democratic Party, will get to have their say,” Kate Bedingfield, Biden’s deputy campaign manager and communications director, said in an interview on MSNBC. “That’s South Carolina. That’s also Nevada. That’s Super Tuesday and beyond.”
Though polling has been scarce and it’s difficult to survey Nevada’s caucuses, Sanders trails Biden by 3.5 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average of recent polls. But a new flyer from the powerful Culinary Workers Union warns that Sanders would “end Culinary Healthcare,” which covers 130,000 workers and family members.
And Sanders will face additional headwinds in Nevada beyond the culinary union: The super PAC that ran an attack ad against him in Iowa is planning to do the same in Nevada. According to Mediaite, Democratic Majority For Israel is creating an ad to make the case in Nevada that Sanders is unelectable.
Sanders is dispatching surrogates to North Carolina on Thursday and South Carolina on Saturday. He will campaign himself in North Carolina and Texas on Friday, Nevada on Saturday and Sunday, Colorado on Sunday and Nevada again next Tuesday and Friday.
Buttigieg will hold fundraisers this week in Indiana, California and Washington state, with campaign stops in Las Vegas, Sacramento and Turlock, Calif. His campaign announced Wednesday that it will double its organizing team in Nevada to nearly 100 staffers and ramp up its investment in TV and digital ads.
And he rolled out the endorsement of South Carolina state Rep. JA Moore, who was California Sen. Kamala Harris’ campaign co-chair in the state. Moore said Buttigieg “has proven he’s the only viable candidate to build a cross racial, rural, urban and suburban coalition to win in November.”
New Hampshire Rep. Annie McLane Kuster told CNN she’s not worried “in the slightest” about Buttigieg improving his standing with minority voters. A Quinnipiac University poll this week had Buttigieg at just 4 percent with black voters.
“Nobody in New Hampshire had ever heard of Pete Buttigieg, either. And so to look at national polls is frankly irrelevant,” she said.
The Culinary Union’s opposition to Sanders also “gives a big opening to Pete in Nevada,” she noted.
Klobuchar, who will hold a fundraiser in New York on Wednesday night, began running a seven-figure ad buy Wednesday in the Las Vegas and Reno markets. The spots will run on cable, broadcast and digital.
“Amy Klobuchar had a stellar debate performance this week, she deserved a bounce this week, and she got one,” Progressive Change Campaign Committee co-founders Stephanie Taylor and Adam Green said. The group, which has endorsed Warren, noted that both women have finished ahead of Biden.
Warren will campaign in Virginia on Thursday and Nevada on Saturday, Sunday, Monday and next Friday. In a fundraising email Wednesday, Warren's team told supporters that Tuesday night “didn’t go the way we wanted it to go,” but, “Elizabeth has only taken the first steps of a marathon.”
In a Tuesday afternoon memo, Warren campaign manager Roger Lau made the case that the race was still “wide open” heading into New Hampshire.
“No candidate has come close yet to receiving majority support among the Democratic primary electorate, and there is no candidate that has yet shown the ability to consolidate support,” he wrote.
Though Warren has branded herself as the unity candidate, Lau took a “quick, sober look at the landscape of” her rivals’ challenges. He said Sanders’ ceiling is “significantly lower” than in 2016, Biden is fading, Buttigieg’s “most significant challenge is yet to come” as he faces a diverse electorate for the first time, and Klobuchar lacks infrastructure “for the long haul” and “is playing catch up on a very short timeline.”
The Quinnipiac poll showed Biden’s once-massive lead with black voters down to just 5 percentage points over former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who announced endorsements Wednesday from Reps. Lucy McBath of Georgia and Gregory Meeks of New York and U.S. Virgin Islands Rep. Stacey Plaskett.
But Bloomberg’s longtime support for the controversial policy of stop and frisk, which disproportionately impacted minorities, was thrust into the spotlight again Tuesday when President Donald Trump and his aides circulated leaked audio of what appeared to be blunt remarks from Bloomberg in 2015.
As the fallout metastasized, Bloomberg blamed Trump for being divisive and said his comments “do not reflect my commitment to criminal justice reform and racial equity.”
In South Carolina polls, Steyer has surged to second place and performed well with black voters. Steyer hired South Carolina state Rep. Gilda Cobb-Hunter, the longest-serving member of the statehouse and president of the National Black Caucus of State Legislators, as a senior adviser on Wednesday.
“Steyer is building the most racially diverse coalition of voters who look like America as it is today,” Cobb-Hunter told The Associated Press. “He is the only candidate who walks the walk and talks the talk.”
Source: https://www.politico.com/