SWING STATE SLUGFEST — Elections are all too frequently declared the “most consequential of a generation.”

But it will be a little bit closer to the truth than usual on Tuesday in Wisconsin, a key swing state where voters are picking their next state Supreme Court justice.

The winner of Tuesday’s election between conservative former state Supreme Court Justice Dan Kelly and liberal Milwaukee County judge Janet Protasiewicz will determine the majority on the state’s highest court, which currently has a 4-3 conservative lean.

Should Protasiewicz win, it could begin the final unraveling of the Scott Walker-era Republican machine, upending a state power structure that has been in place for over a decade. It could transform Wisconsin from a state that Republicans across the country once admired as the platonic ideal of conservative powerbuilding and governance to, well, something else.

“I always say this is the most consequential race facing Wisconsin in decades,” state GOP chair Brian Schimming said recently. Schimming ticked through a handful of issues that a liberal court could consider: gun control, school choice and even Act 10 — the law Walker and the Republican legislature muscled through that stripped collective bargaining rights from most public employees, which was the impetus for the famous (and ultimately unsuccessful) Walker recall effort of 2012.

And perhaps most important of all is redistricting. Wisconsin is pretty close to 50-50 for most statewide races, but Republicans have a near-supermajority in both chambers of the state legislature — a special election on Tuesday in a red-leaning state Senate seat will determine if Republicans get one again in that chamber — and also have six of the state’s eight congressional seats. Those durable GOP legislative majorities have stymied two-term Democratic Gov. Tony Evers on just about everything. But a liberal court could clear the way for a challenge to revisit both the legislative and congressional maps — Protasiewicz regularly calls the current ones rigged — which has been one of the big reasons this race has gotten so expensive.

The first big decision coming for Tuesday night’s winner will likely be on abortion access. The state has an 1840s law banning abortion in nearly all circumstances. A challenge to that is widely assumed to end up in front of the Wisconsin Supreme Court, but in the meantime providers have stopped the procedure in the state. That has been a major focus of Protasiewicz, who says she believes women should have the right to choose.

Despite the huge stakes, this is still a spring election, where turnout is going to be far lower than a November election. Marquette Law School polling director Charles Franklin recently projected turnout to be potentially north of 1.3 million people — which is less than in the 2020 spring state Supreme Court election that Kelly lost, which was held concurrently with the Democratic presidential primary that year — but would be in the ballpark of a record for a year without a presidential contest.

“For people that aren’t paying attention, it seems hard to believe that there’s a spring election that has cataclysmic importance,” Ben Wikler, the chair of the state Democratic Party, told me recently. “And breaking through that natural skepticism to convey that fact is maybe the central challenge in this organizing push.”

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at [email protected]. Or contact tonight’s author at [email protected] or on Twitter at @ZachMontellaro.

— Trump taps white-collar attorney to helm indictment defense: Former President Donald Trump has hired a top white-collar criminal defense lawyer and former federal prosecutor, Todd Blanche, as his lead counsel to handle the Manhattan district attorney’s criminal indictment of the former president. Blanche, until recently a partner at law firm Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft, said in an email obtained by POLITICO that he was resigning from the firm because “I have been asked to represent Trump in the recently charged DA case, and after much thought/consideration, I have decided it is the best thing for me to do and an opportunity I should not pass up.”

— Trump heads to Manhattan to be arraigned in court: Trump left his Florida residence on a private plane bound for New York this afternoon as he prepares to be processed following his criminal indictment last week. “WITCH HUNT, as our once great Country is going to HELL!” Trump wrote on Truth Social, his social media platform, minutes before his plane departed. Once he lands in Manhattan, the former president will stay the night in his penthouse at Trump Tower before heading to the courthouse Tuesday morning, according to travel plans his team released Sunday night.

— NYC mayor to MTG: ‘Be on your best behavior’: Mayor Eric Adams took aim at one of Trump’s most ardent supporters today as he tried to quell safety concerns ahead of the former president’s arraignment in Manhattan Criminal Court Tuesday. “People like Marjorie Taylor Greene, who is known to spread misinformation and hate speech, while you’re in town, be on your best behavior,” Adams said at City Hall press conference about security preparations around Trump’s court appearance.

UNDER HIS SKIN — Mike Pence might harbor deep-seated resentment toward Trump for his handling of Jan. 6. But it’s Nikki Haley who really gets under the Pence camp’s skin, reports POLITICO’s Adam Wren and Natalie Allison. Inside Pence’s orbit, staffers have begun privately complaining about a presidential contender who, like Pence, is polling in single digits — distressed that Haley is drawing what they view as more favorable media coverage than the former vice president receives.

SLIGHT TURBULENCE — Dating back to her time as a state legislator in South Carolina, Haley has had close ties with Boeing, reports the Wall Street Journal. It isn’t unusual for conservative politicians, whether governors trying to lure companies to their states or members of Congress looking to secure funding for special projects back home, to confront tensions between their support for limited government and parochial interests. Still, Haley’s stern warnings about using public funds to help corporate interests — combined with her own relationship with Boeing — have led her rivals to attack her as someone prone to reversals and tied to the corporate establishment.

NEARING THE FINN-ISH — Finland will formally become a full-fledged NATO ally on Tuesday, the alliance’s Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said earlier today, writes Lili Bayer.

“This is an historic week,” the NATO chief told reporters. “Tomorrow, we will welcome Finland as the 31st member of NATO, making Finland safer and our alliance stronger.”

A ceremony marking Finland’s accession is set to take place Tuesday afternoon. “We will raise the Finnish flag for the first time here at the NATO headquarters,” Stoltenberg said, adding: “It will be a good day for Finland’s security, for Nordic security, and for NATO as a whole.”

The move comes after Hungary and Turkey ratified Finland’s membership bid last week, removing the last hurdles to Helsinki’s accession. Sweden’s membership aspiration, however, remains in limbo as Budapest and Ankara continue to withhold support.

MONTENEGRO’S EU PATH — Former Economy Minister Jakov Milatović declared victory in Montenegro’s presidential run-off on Sunday, defeating long-standing incumbent Milo Djukanovic, who has been in power for more than three decades and is credited with bringing the country closer to Europe by joining NATO in 2017. While candidates from both leading parties expressed support for joining the European Union, regional analysts voiced skepticism over whether Milatović will follow through with pro-EU policies given his pro-Russian and pro-Serbian backers, many of whom remain highly critical of the Western-led bloc.

SPARKLING WATER — The world of water “sommeliers” has been growing globally for years, and in the U.S. alone, mineral water, seltzer and sparkling water sales reached around $3.5 billion between 2019 and 2020. These sommeliers taste bottled waters as if they are fine wines, with special attention to the drink’s “virginality” or level of protection that the water has from its surroundings. They design water menus for restaurants, judge contests in which different bottled waters compete on a variety of metrics, including taste, texture and mouthfeel, and collect bottles of tasteless water from icebergs, which can cost as much as $300 a bottle. But how could someone justify spending hundreds on bottled water when communities like Philadelphia or East Palestine are affected by contaminated supplies? What does it mean to elevate a fundamental human need to this level of luxury? Read Sam Stone’s investigation into the very real (and complicated) world of luxury water for Bon Appétit.