With help from Connor O’Brien, Stephanie Liechtenstein and Nahal Toosi

Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt

PROGRAMMING NOTE: We’ll be off next week for the holidays but back to our normal schedule on Tuesday, Jan. 3.

Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY could have sat down with leaders in Poland, taken a train to Germany or a much shorter flight to France for his first trip outside his home country since the war began.

Instead, he chose the United States.

The unexpected visit first reported Tuesday night underscores Ukraine’s laser-focus on maintaining U.S. aid as Ukrainian officials work to continue to fend off Russia through the winter. It also demonstrates how there’s no European leaders for Zelenskyy to turn to for comparable support.

“While [French President EMMANUEL] MACRON would certainly have been delighted to be the first to welcome Zelenskyy, not to speak of Warsaw and the Polish leadership, it is unlikely that Europeans will hold any grudges,” LIANA FIX, a fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations, told NatSec Daily. “They know that the United States is the real leader in this war.”

It’s about more than just the large sums the U.S. is spending in Ukraine — some $50 billion on aid since February. European allies have been hesitant to move forward with aid on their own, waiting for the U.S. to pledge support before following in step. And, Fix argued, Europe has been disjointed in its approach to Ukraine.

“We have seen a strong, but leaderless Europe since the war began, and no European country has emerged as the locomotive behind E.U. efforts,” she said.

During his trip, the Ukrainian leader is expected to ask for long-range weaponry that the U.S. (and Europe) have so far declined to provide. While in Washington, Zelenskyy will have a sit-down meeting with President JOE BIDEN, as well as top officials including Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN and Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. MARK MILLEY.

If the U.S. does eventually decide to provide more sophisticated weaponry — whether long range missiles or advanced tanks and fighters — it’s likely Europe will follow. A couple weeks ago, British defense minister BEN WALLACEsaid he’d be "open minded" about sending longer-range missiles to Ukraine to destroy drone launch sites, if Russia continued targeting civilian areas.

“Zelenskyy will not get these necessities on this trip,” JOHN HERBST, senior director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, told NatSec Daily. “But perhaps he can make headway in meetings with the president by pointing out that providing the longer range artillery would help him destroy the launching pads for the Iranian drones wreaking havoc on Ukrainian civilians.”

Just before Zelenskyy landed in Washington, the U.S. announced a welcome gift: $1 billion in weapons, equipment and $850 million in funding through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. That includes the first-ever transfer of a Patriot missile defense system, designed to shoot down missiles and aircraft.

It’s a show of support to “underscore our enduring commitment to the people of Ukraine,” Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said in a statement.

That’s a good start for Zelenskyy. Now we wait and see if he has any success pushing for them.

RUSSIA NOT TO BLAME FOR NORD STREAM?:Two dozen diplomatic and intelligence officials say there’s no evidence indicating that Russia was behind the Nord Stream pipeline explosions in September, The Washington Post reports.

Some of the 24 officials, from nine countries, interviewed in recent weeks told the Post that Russia may not be responsible for the explosion at all. And those who believe Moscow to be a prime suspect don’t think it would be possible to prove what country was behind it.

All the officials agree on one thing: the damage was deliberate. Since the explosions, which severely damaged undersea pipelines carrying natural gas from Russia to Europe, Russia has repeatedly accused Britain of being the culprit. British officials have denied the charges, and world leaders have accused Russia of sabotage to stymie the flow of energy to Europe amid the war in Ukraine.

NEW SANCTIONS AGAINST IRANIANS: New sanctions were levied against Iranian officials by the Treasury Department today in retaliation for the execution of two protestors in recent weeks, our own KELLY GARRITY reports.

The Office of Foreign Assets Control designated Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leaders MOHAMMAD KAZEMI and ABBAS NILFORUSHAN, as well as the Iranian company Imen Sanat Zaman Fara, which the Treasury says manufactures much of the equipment Iranian law enforcement uses to suppress the protests.

“The United States and our partners are dedicated to holding Iranian officials to account for egregious abuses committed against Iranian citizens fighting for their fundamental freedoms,” BRIAN NELSON, the Treasury undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, said in a statement.

AN INVITATION TO IRAN: Iranian officials floated the idea of inviting International Atomic Energy Agency Director General RAFAEL GROSSI to visit Tehran during a meeting with the agency’s experts on Sunday, our own STEPHANIE LIECHTENSTEIN writes in.

Grossi, who last visited nine months ago, could head to Tehran as early as January to continue pressing Iran to cooperate with the U.N. nuclear watchdog on the long-running IAEA investigation into Iran's past nuclear program, per two senior European diplomats, who asked for anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter. The possible trip has not been officially confirmed by either side.

No progress was made on Sunday to negotiate over what’s supposed to be the last remaining obstacle to an agreement on reviving the Iran nuclear deal. Iranian officials have been stonewalling the agency for three years and have failed to provide “technically credible” explanations after nuclear traces were found at three specific locations inside Iran.

TORTURE, SEXUAL VIOLENCE IN IRAQ: U.S.-backed Iraqi Prime Minister MUSTAFA AL-KADHIMI used torture and sexual violence to extract confessions from senior Iraqi officials and businesspeople as part of his government’s high-profile anti-corruption efforts, The Washington Post’s LOUISA LOVELUCK and MUSTAFA SALIM report.

A nine-month investigation by the Post found that Kadhimi, who left office in October, used many of the same tactics of the previous government, whose abuses he promised to address. He came to power in 2020 after mass anti-corruption demonstrations caused his predecessor to leave office.

But public officials detained during a series of highly publicized government night raids the same year, authorized by anti-corruption authorities, described abusive and humiliating behavior during detention.

“It was every kind of torture,” one former detainee told the Post. “Electricity, choking me with plastic bags, hanging me from the ceiling by my hands. They stripped us naked and grabbed at the parts of our body underneath.”

IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [email protected] and [email protected], and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @ericgeller, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye.

FRIENDS FOR REAL?: Former Russian President DMITRY MEDVEDEV traveled to China to meet with Chinese leader XI JINPING, highlighting ties between both sides as U.S.-led sanctions have left Russia increasingly isolated, The New York Times' VICTORIA KIM and ANTON TROIANOVSKI report.

Despite both countries declaring their partnership had "no limits" in March shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, China's growing silence has led Moscow to expand efforts to reach out to Beijing and even acknowledge Chinese concerns about the direction of the conflict.

China hasn't offered Russia military aid like Iran has, and has yet to show any willingness to help Moscow evade a growing number of Western sanctions.

While Medvedev and other officials might appear alongside Xi, ROBERT DALY, director of the Kissinger Institute at The Wilson Center, believes China has no plans to take an overt stance in the conflict.

“Beijing is unlikely to offer direct military support to Russia,” Daly told NatSec Daily. “Doing so would jeopardize its (bogus) posture of neutrality and further undermine claims … that China’s foreign policy is virtuous because it honors territorial integrity, non-interference in the internal affairs of others and peaceful solutions of disputes.”

BELARUS RESTRICTS BORDER ACCESS: Belarus issued a ruling temporarily restricting access to its southeastern region that borders Ukraine and Russia, Reuters’ LIDIA KELLY reports.

On its website, the government said it would "temporarily restrict entry, temporary stay and movement” in the border zone within the Loevsky, Braginsky and Khoiniki districts of the Gomel region. It’s unclear how long the restriction will last, and it does not apply to officials, workers or residents in the area.

The move comes two days after Putin visited the country to speak with President ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO, causing observers to worry that Belarus may become involved in the war. Russian troops used Belarus as a launching pad for their offensive on Kyiv in February.

PRO-UKRAINIAN HACKERS: Members of Ukraine's IT Army, a volunteer group of computer specialists, have been working to gather intelligence on Russian military forces in order to inform tactics on the battlefield, Bloomberg's DARYNA KRASNOLUTSKA and VOLODYMYR VERBYANY report.

The group has previously taken credit for disrupting Russian services with cyberattacks, including their hacking of Russia's RuTube video platform, which disrupted the site for a week. The IT Army is also trying to deliver news to Russian citizens about the war to debunk the myth of a "special military operation" that Putin has used to describe the invasion.

Despite the group's success, Russia has still hit Ukraine's energy infrastructure with cyberattacks, worsening an environment already hampered by missile attacks that have left parts of the country without power.

CONTRACTING FRAUD: The Pentagon is closely monitoring for signs of fraud in the nearly $9 billion in Ukraine defense contracts awarded to firms since Russia's invasion in February, Defense News' JOE GOULD reports.

While no fraud has been reported yet, DoD's Defense Criminal Investigative Service is working to monitor contract awards for potential black market diversion of Ukraine-related contracts.

Part of those efforts have taken place overseas as the Pentagon's investigative service traveled to Poland, a hub for weapons transfers to Ukraine, to warn U.S. defense personnel to monitor suspected fraud or diversions. Fraud monitoring has also taken place in Ukraine as U.S. defense officials have tracked weapons transfers at border logistics hubs.

The Pentagon's effort comes as Republicans set to take control of the House have said they want to conduct an audit on U.S. security and economic aid to Ukraine.

I GUESS I’LL SIGN IT: While Biden will sign the National Defense Authorization that’s headed to his desk, he’s not going to be thrilled about it, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reports.

The bill is a bipartisan rebuke of Biden’s military budget and a raft of other plans. It prescribes $45 billion more for national defense spending than the administration proposed, reverses efforts to kill a new nuclear missile and scrambles Pentagon efforts to retire a number of ships and aircraft to save money.

A U.S. official told POLITICO that the $858 billion defense bill is “clearly” being seen as a swipe at the administration. But Biden won’t hazard a veto of the measure, which would jeopardize a 61-year streak of defense policy legislation becoming law each year.

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — NEW RECORD: The State Department took part in more than 3,200 “policy engagements” with Congress in 2022, a record high for the department, the State Department told NatSec Daily.

SecState Blinken participated in more than 60 of those calls, briefings and meetings with members of Congress. The figure is part of the department's effort to strengthen its relationship with Congress, a goal Blinken emphasized during his confirmation hearing last year.

NO PEACE TALKS: Russia has no plans of pursuing peace talks with Ukraine following the announcement of Zelenskyy's trip to Washington, Reuters reports.

The Kremlin continued to criticize weapons transfers to Ukraine as Biden is set to announce a new round of Ukraine military aid along with the transfer of U.S. Patriot missile defense system.

"The supply of weapons continues and the range of supplied weapons is expanding," Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV said. "All of this, of course, leads to an aggravation of the conflict. This does not bode well for Ukraine."

U.S. officials have repeatedly said that it's up to Ukraine to ultimately decide when to negotiate with Russia, but continued attacks on the country's critical infrastructure are worrying Kyiv that they could lose the progress gained during their late-summer counteroffensive.

— JASON AIKEN will also take on the role of executive vice president of technologies at General Dynamics. He’ll also continue serving as chief financial officer.

— ALEKSANDER KWAŚNIEWSKI, POLITICO: A truly European Ukraine needs both victory and stronger rule of law

— JASON FARAGO, SARAH KERR, AINARA TIEFENTHÄLER, and HALEY WILLIS, The New York Times: A Culture in the Crosshairs

— PHILLIPS PAYSON O’BRIEN, The Atlantic: What Trump and Musk Don’t Get About Russia’s Nuclear Threats

— The Senate convenes to continue negotiations for the $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill which includes $858 billion in defense funding and $45 billion in Ukraine security assistance.

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at [email protected] to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who characterizes NatSec Daily as “strong, but leaderless.”

And we thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who is our true leader.