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Who’s afraid of VLADIMIR PUTIN? Lately, not so much the Biden administration.

Ahead of decisions to send weapons such as Javelins, High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems or tanks to Ukraine, NatSec Daily repeatedly heard one main line from top administration officials: giving them to Kyiv could cross the Russian president’s red line. Putin might escalate the war, they said, and put Ukraine, broader Europe and the United States in greater danger.

CELESTE WALLANDER, DoD’s top official for international security affairs, told Lara in February that “controlling escalation” is part of the department’s decision-making process when assessing what weapons to send to Ukraine in each successive aid package.

But as others have noticed, that concern has dwindled in recent weeks. President JOE BIDEN’s green light allowing Ukrainian pilots to train on American-made F-16 fighter jets is case in point. That would’ve been too provocative for Washington months ago. Now, it seems only a matter of time before partner countries begin sending those warplanes to Kyiv.

Ask Biden’s team about this (and grant them anonymity to discuss sensitive internal thinking, of course) and they’ll cite two main factors animating their decisions.

The first is that “there’s always worry about Putin doing something crazy,” as a senior administration official told us. Yes, the autocrat is already bombing civilians and committing war crimes, but who’s to say he won’t ever launch a massive cyberattack on Western nations or drop a nuclear bomb on Ukraine? Those are all unlikely prospects, but the chances aren’t zero.

“We don’t want to see the war escalate beyond what it’s already visited on the Ukrainian people and European continent,” National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told CNN on Wednesday.

The second factor, per another senior administration official, is that the fear issue “has always been overstated compared to others, like what would actually help [Ukraine] in the fight.”

In other words, the U.S. didn’t hesitate to send air defenses and longer-range missiles because of what Russia might do. What mattered more was if those weapons were needed at that moment and if Ukrainian forces could sustain their use over time.

“Our approach to the provision of weapons, materiel, training to the Ukrainians has followed the exigencies of the conflict,” national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN said in May. F-16s might not be needed for the counteroffensive, but they could prove helpful in Ukraine’s future force, he continued. “The obvious first step there is to do the training and then to work with allies and partners and the Ukrainians to determine how to do the actual provision of planes as we move forward.”

A DoD official added that Kyiv’s troops proved repeatedly they won’t use U.S.-provided equipment to strike deep into Russian territory, making it less risky to deliver Ukraine advanced weapons and technology.

It’s likely the administration will consider these two main aspects as the pressure to send long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems mounts. “The ATACMS need to flow now,” Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) told NatSec Daily following a trip to Ukraine last week.

Britain already sent Ukraine the Storm Shadow, effectively their version of the missile. However, the Pentagon has repeatedly warned that the U.S. doesn’t have any ATACMS to spare.

CALL ME, MAYBE: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN is upset that his Chinese counterpart won’t meet him during a conference later this week, the Associated Press’ MARI YAMAGUCHI reports.

“I’m concerned about at some point having an incident that could very, very quickly spiral out of control,” Austin said during a visit to Tokyo. “I would welcome any opportunity to engage with leadership. I think defense departments should be talking to each other on a routine basis or should have open channels for communication.”

Beijing has said there won’t be a meeting during the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, citing military tensions between the U.S. and China. One problem is the U.S. sanctioned Defense Minister LI SHANGFU, complicating the logistics of a meeting with Austin.

The concern about a worsening situation between the world’s top powers comes as a Chinese fighter jet recently buzzed a U.S. Air Force plane above the South China Sea. The move made the American aircraft fly through turbulence.

UKRAINE, FUTURE ALLY?: Pressure is growing on NATO to develop a clear pathway to welcome Ukraine into the alliance, the Wall Street Journal’s DANIEL MICHAELS reports.

During a Wednesday conference in Slovakia, French President EMMANUEL MACRON said NATO needed to provide “strong and tangible” security guarantees for Ukraine ahead of the alliance’s Vilnius summit in July. He also said Kyiv needed a clear “path” to become a NATO member.

Today, NATO foreign ministers meeting in Norway have to respond to the growing calls for such a pathway. “Our focus today was how can we bring Ukraine closer to NATO, where it belongs,” NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG said Thursday. The alliance must “have in place frameworks to provide guarantees for Ukrainian security after the end of the war.”

U.K. Prime Minister RISHI SUNAK said “I agree with the NATO secretary general Ukraine’s rightful place is in NATO, but what we are also talking with Ukraine about right now is making sure that they have all the support they need for a successful counteroffensive.”

Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN added that a conversation about Ukraine’s potential membership status likely “will be part of the conversation in Vilnius.”

‘NO DAYS OFF’: No, we’re not talking about Ari’s workout regimen here. The New York Times’ MARC SANTORA has a deep dive into the Ukrainian forces operating air defenses against a consistent Russian barrage.

“In the month of May alone, Russia bombarded Kyiv 17 times. It has fired hypersonic missiles from MIG-31 fighter jets and attacked with land-based ballistic missiles powerful enough to level an entire apartment block. Russian bombers and ships have fired dozens of long-range cruise missiles, and more than 200 attack drones have featured in blitzes meant to confuse and overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses,” he wrote.

Ukraine is defending Kyiv and others positions with Patriots, NASAMS, SAMP/Ts and Gepards. The fear is Russia is launching so many missiles and drones at Ukraine to exhaust the country’s air-defense resources. And Russia has changed its focus from mostly hitting civilian centers to striking military targets, likely to hamper Kyiv’s planned counteroffensive.

“We have no days off,” RIABYI, the call sign for a Ukrainian air-defense operator, told the NYT.

IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [email protected] and [email protected], and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

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LORDY, THERE (MIGHT) BE TAPES: Shortly after we published yesterday, CNN scooped that investigators might have a tape featuring former President DONALD TRUMP discussing a classified document about a plan to attack Iran.

“The recording indicates Trump understood he retained classified material after leaving the White House, according to multiple sources familiar with the investigation. On the recording, Trump’s comments suggest he would like to share the information but he’s aware of limitations on his ability post-presidency to declassify records, two of the sources said,” KATELYN POLANTZ, PAULA REID and KAITLAN COLLINS report.

The tape of the summer 2021 meeting damages Trump’s argument that he declassified all the papers in his possession after leaving the Oval Office. Special counsel JACK SMITH is centering on that specific meeting as part of his investigation, per CNN.

Gen. MARK MILLEY, the Joint Chiefs chair, was questioned about the event. Trump’s interest in the document stemmed from SUSAN GLASSER’s New Yorker article about how Milley worked to convince Trump not to attack Iran after the 2020 election.

RUSSIA ALLEGES U.S. SPYING, COLLUSION: Russia is accusing the United States and Apple of conspiring to deploy sophisticated spyware on thousands of iPhones within Russia, a thinly sourced claim that is nonetheless receiving circumstantial support from a Russian cybersecurity company.

“The Federal Security Service [FSB] of the Russian Federation together with the FSO of Russia revealed a reconnaissance action of the American special services conducted using Apple mobile devices,” reads a (poorly translated, one hopes!) details-light, four-paragraph statement from Russia’s domestic intelligence agency.

Also on Thursday, Russia cybersecurity company Kaspersky published technical details of novel spyware found on the iPhones of several dozens of its employees. The company did not cite the FSB accusations in its research (or vice versa), though the timing and like description of the two announcements is hard to ignore.

Russia, which alleges the malware also infected phones belonging to residents of Israel, China and other post-Soviet states, seized on the allegations to accuse Apple of acting as a smokescreen for the U.S. government.

“The information received by the Russian intelligence services testifies to the close cooperation of the American company Apple with the national intelligence community,” reads a Thursday statement from Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “The declared policy of ensuring the confidentiality of personal data of users of Apple devices is not true.”

DEMS VIE FOR BIDEN IN COLORADO: The president delivered the commencement address at the Air Force Academy’s graduation today, a visit that Colorado’s Democratic senators hope to leverage to argue for keeping U.S. Space Command in Colorado Springs, per our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!).

“We’re seeing proliferating global challenges, from Russia’s aggression and brutality in Europe, to our competition with China,” the president said. He arrived in Colorado Wednesday, and was greeted by Sen. MICHAEL BENNET (D-Colo.) and Colorado Springs Mayor JOHN SUTHERS.

In a joint statement marking Biden’s visit, Bennet and Sen. JOHN HICKENLOOPER (D-Colo.) called the state “the nexus of America’s defense and space missions,” and urged Biden to reverse the Trump-era decision to send the command to Alabama.

“As President Biden and his administration near a final basing decision for Space Command, we urge them to restore the integrity of this process and make a decision in the interest of our national security — to keep Space Command in Colorado Springs,” the pair said.

MAKE IT BIGGER: “The ink is barely dry on a debt limit deal that constrains Pentagon spending for the next two years, but lawmakers in both parties are already looking for ways to boost funding levels in spite of those caps,” our own JOE GOULD and CONNOR O’BRIEN report.

The most likely vehicle is the next emergency supplemental for Ukraine, which the lawmakers hope to cram with cash for other Pentagon priorities that normally wouldn’t be in the measure. But doing so could also mean a partisan clash if Democrats oppose reopening the deal through a supplemental without some relief for domestic spending priorities.

Hawks in the Senate are particularly incensed by the limits the agreement places on defense spending. Republican defense hawks are demanding assurances from Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER ahead of a vote on the debt deal that he’ll take up a supplemental to pad the Pentagon budget.

“The first problem of an inadequate defense budget could be addressed and remedied by an emergency defense supplemental,” said ranking Appropriations Republican SUSAN COLLINS of Maine. “That is what we need to do. That is what I would ask the administration and my colleagues on the other side of the aisle to commit to — because we know this budget is not adequate to the global threats that we face.”

NDAA MARKUP: The House Armed Services Committee has set new dates for marking up its annual defense policy bill now that a debt deal has been struck, our own LEE HUDSON reports (for Pros!).

The panel will hold subcommittee markups the week of June 12; full committee June 21; and have the bill on the House floor after the July 4 recess, according to two congressional aides and two lobbyists with knowledge of the schedule. They were granted anonymity to discuss the new timeline before it had been announced.

HOSTAGE COMMISSION: Sen. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) will be the honorary co-chair of a new Center for Strategic and International Studies commission that will spend 18 months developing responses for the increased scourge of hostage taking and wrongful detentions.

OVERSTEPPED AND OVERSTATED: The Biden administration is scrambling to salvage relations with South Africa after America’s ambassador there alleged that Pretoria sent a ship filled with weapons to Russia as it wages war on Ukraine, our own NAHAL TOOSI reports.

The ambassador, REUBEN BRIGETY, made the claim three weeks ago in a press briefing, saying he’d “bet my life” on it. He added that South Africa was engaging in “outrageous” anti-Americanism and questioned its claim to be neutral among the world powers.

Brigety’s actions thrilled some observers who say the U.S. needs to be more honest about a South African drift toward Moscow –– but U.S. officials made clear in conversations with POLITICO that they were uncomfortable with Brigety’s actions and the nature of his assertions.

Brigety did not have permission from higher-ups to say what he said, two former U.S. officials and a current U.S. official familiar with the discussions said. He also overstated what the U.S. definitively knows, according to the current official and a fourth person — a senior Biden administration official.

“The things we have said publicly we are ready to put the credibility of the U.S. government behind. What he said was far beyond that,” the senior Biden administration official said when pressed on the intelligence, per Toosi.

NEW SUDAN SANCTIONS: Washington will impose sanctions and other restrictions against entities that “threaten the peace” in Sudan, as the warring factions fail to revive talks over a potential cease-fire, per a note from Blinken.

The visa restrictions target specific individuals and officials in the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and key leaders of the former OMAR AL-BASHIR regime. The Treasury Department additionally sanctioned two companies supporting the RSF, and two companies affiliated with Sudan’s army, accusing them of contributing to the conflict’s longevity.

BERLIN’S TIT FOR TAT: Germany said Wednesday it is revoking the licenses of four of the five Russian consulates in the country, amid rising tensions that have been exacerbated by the Russian war in Ukraine, per our own GABRIEL RINALDI.

Moscow has been asked to “promptly arrange for the liquidation of the four consulates general in the Federal Republic of Germany and complete it by Dec. 31, 2023, at the latest,” according to Berlin’s foreign ministry. The move is intended to create “structural and personnel parity” between the two countries, the ministry said.

Russia had limited the number of German state employees allowed in Moscow to 350 from June, in what the foreign ministry called a “step of escalation.”

As a result, the number of personnel in the German consulates general in Russia is no longer sufficient to provide consular support, it added.

— WILL TODD and LILY WOODALL are launching Icebreaker Strategies, a government relations firm specializing in appropriations, national security policy and business development strategy. Todd previously was a principal at Cornerstone Public Affairs. Woodall previously was a senior associate at Cornerstone Public Affairs, per POLITICO Playbook.

— SEAN McGLYNN joins Holland & Knight as a senior policy advisor, focusing on national security and emerging technology issues. McGlynn previously was a government affairs adviser with K&L Gates.

— IVO DAALDER, POLITICO: Beware China’s salami tactics in Taiwan

— EMILY TAMKIN, Foreign Policy: India is stuck in a new world disorder

— MARK ESPER and EVELYN FARKAS, The Wall Street Journal: Turkey must allow Sweden into NATO

— Meridian International Center, 8:30 a.m.: 2023 Meridian Culturefix Conversations

— Arms Control Association, 9 a.m.: 2023 annual conference

— Inter-American Dialogue, the Organization of American States, and the Development Bank of Latin America, 9 a.m.: 26th Annual CAF Conference

— Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 12 p.m.: Whither U.S. Syria Policy?

Thanks to our editors, Dave Brown and Emma Anderson, who want us all to fear them.

We also thank our producer, Jeffrey Horst, who we trust with all our weapons.

CORRECTION: A previous version of NatSec Daily mischaracterized the type of spyware found on the iPhones of Kaspersky’s employees.