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The newly announced climate deal between China and the United States could mark a turning point in international efforts by putting the world’s two biggest polluters on the same page.

But both countries remain firmly wedded to the main driver of global warming: fossil fuels. And it’s unclear how far they are willing to go to meet climate goals, write Benjamin Storrow and Sara Schonhardt.

The agreement — laid out this week by U.S. climate envoy John Kerry and his Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua — includes pledges to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, cut fossil fuel emissions and include all greenhouse gases in the climate plans that countries submit under the Paris Agreement.

However, both countries are still heavy producers of fossil fuels.

Coal remains a bedrock of China’s economy, and the country has added over 44 gigawatts of coal power in the last two years to meet increased power demand. In the United States, oil and natural gas production is setting domestic records.

A matter of when

The countries are pledging to speed up clean energy deployment “so as to accelerate the substitution for coal, oil and gas generation” in their own economies.

China had installed 758 GW of wind and solar capacity as of last year. In 2023, it is on track to add 210 GW from solar installations — about twice that of the U.S., which is also pouring billions into clean energy through the Inflation Reduction Act.

Some analysts say China’s renewables are poised to outpace electricity demand, which could prompt a steady decline in the country’s emissions. But it’s unclear exactly when that will happen, with Chinese President Xi Jinping committing only to achieving peak emissions before 2030.

“The level at which they peak also matters because the higher China’s emissions go, the harder it will be to achieve the rapid reductions that are necessary,” said Kelly Sims Gallagher, who leads the Center for International Environment and Resource Policy at Tufts University.

A united front?

The agreement came just before President Joe Biden had his first meeting in a year with Xi. It all points to a rebuilding of ties after a rocky year when the relationship soured over broader geopolitical and economic tensions.

But it’s not all rosy.

Shortly after their meeting on Wednesday, Biden referred to Xi (not for the first time) as a “dictator.” Such comments have sparked outrage from Chinese officials in the past and could inflame upcoming talks.

The two countries also remain at odds over a “loss and damage” fund to support victims of increased natural disasters and sea levels. Negotiations over the fund are likely to play an important role at the United Nations climate summit, or COP28, starting Nov. 30 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

It’s Thursday — thank you for tuning in to POLITICO’s Power Switch. I’m your host, Rebekah Alvey. Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to [email protected].

Today in POLITICO Energy’s podcast: Zack Colman talks about the U.S.-China climate agreement that comes weeks ahead of the U.N. climate summit.

Big wires plan
Can the Biden administration build enough power lines to send clean electricity across the country in pursuit of its climate goals? Brian Dabbs, Miranda Willson, Jeffrey Tomich and Jason Plautz outline some key takeaways from a Department of Energy report that highlighted the parts of the country with the biggest needs.

Architect of a green revolution
Karl Mathiesen offers a dispatch from Heerlen, Netherlands, the former coal town where former European Commission leader Frans Timmermans spent part of his early years. Heerlen has been called the Netherlands’ “most failed city.”

The experience shaped Timmermans and his work as the leading European Union official in charge of the European Green Deal. Timmermans resigned his post in August to run for Dutch prime minister under a joint Labor-Green ticket. Now, as his climate deal takes shape, other towns face the kind of industrial upheaval he grew up with.

Sentencing in #ExxonKnew case
A private eye named Aviram Azari was sentenced to 80 months in prison for orchestrating a global hacking scheme targeting anti-Exxon Mobil activists. But environmentalists say it’s an “empty win” since they still don’t know who hired Azari, Lesley Clark writes.

Ferry me away: The company behind a hydrogen ferry that’s set to launch next year in San Francisco is looking to expand nationwide thanks to $10 million in new funding.

Grid growth: The rapid expansion of renewable power is creating bottlenecks on Europe’s electric grids and could slow the deployment of more clean energy.

Disparities: Power grid failures disproportionately affect Black Americans, who are more likely to live in unreliable service areas. Race is an issue as extreme weather events threaten to turn out the lights in vulnerable communities.

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A swamp fire has been smoldering mostly underground in Louisiana for weeks, inducing a smoky fog that has caused deadly car crashes. Experts say it’s another natural phenomenon made worse by climate change.

An updated USDA map that helps gardeners decide what to plant shows the average coldest nights of the winter have warmed across the United States, continuing a trend in that direction.

The U.S., Europe and other nations are creating a framework for measuring methane and carbon emissions tied to the global market for natural gas.

That’s it for today, folks! Thanks for reading.