What’s going on with Kamala’s poll numbers?
November 12, 2021Happy Friday, Women Rulers! I’m so excited to share with you some big magazine pieces on Monday that I’ve been editing, along with some help from Elizabeth. I don’t want to give too much away, but tune in to POLITICO on Monday morning. Thanks to Maya Parthasarathy for her help putting together this newsletter.
This week, USA TODAY and Suffolk University released a poll that found a startlingly low approval rating for Vice President Kamala Harris: 28 percent. That’s lower even than Vice President Dick Cheney, who was previously known as the least popular vice president in modern American history.
Why are voters turning on Harris? It might be too soon to take that 28-percent figure as the definitive one, POLITICO White House correspondent and Playbook author Eugene Daniels told me. But her approval numbers are certainly slipping, and it’s important to understand why, said Daniels, who covers Harris. He explained to me what’s behind the drop, what it means for her future, what it means for other women who hope to one day occupy the highest office — and whether the vice presidency is actually a good stepping stone for them to get there.
This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
Katie Fossett: Why do you think Kamala Harris’ poll numbers are slipping like this?
Eugene Daniels: I think one, it’s because the vice president is completely tied to the president. And we’re seeing Biden’s numbers dwindled and dropped really quickly. But there is a lot of talk about this USA TODAY poll, where she hit 28 percent. That’s one poll. We haven’t seen a bunch of numbers like that.
But we have seen the numbers are dwindling. We see that her average right now is in the low 40s, about 41 percent, based on an LA Times aggregate. When she did the Guatemala trip is when you really start to see a drop in her popularity and her job approval. I think that is fascinating, because it tells us that having a really difficult issue to work on, like immigration, is “dangerous,” quote-unquote, for poll numbers. It’s one of those issues that, no matter what, people are going to have some kind of strong, strong emotion about.
This is a woman who has been attacked by Republicans all year. They have spent a lot of time making sure that every problem that Biden has is her problem. Even if there is an ad about Joe Biden, there is a picture of her. So there are all these little things that have happened over this time; so much money has been spent by Republicans saying, “This woman is the border czar, where is she? Where’s Kamala?” And those have all had an effect on Biden’s poll numbers and then her poll numbers.
And there is obviously racism involved, and we know how women politicians are treated in this country. So she is kind of the first test case in national office of what that looks like.
Fossett: Can you put her numbers into context with those of other vice presidents’?
Daniels: Her average is kind of lower than usual. The 28 percent is really low, and I think that was even lower than Dick Cheney, who was a vice president with historically low polling numbers. But there is more scrutiny on her than [there was on] the white men who came before her, because, one, you have a figure of historic consequence. And so that makes people think, “OK, she should be out there more. She should be doing more.” And then because of Joe Biden’s age, it is expected that she is going to run [for president] and [people think] “we’re stuck with this in 2024, maybe 2028.”
And then at the same time, you have an administration that has been from the very beginning very ambitious about the things they’re going to do. And if you don’t get it done immediately, people kind of turn on you. People aren’t really feeling that the country is in a good place. That speaks to the larger polling issue with this administration. They have all these things they can point to: They have great jobs numbers that came out last Friday; more than 100,000 jobs more than all those smart people at the New York Stock Exchange said was going to happen. You have low unemployment overall. You have shots in arms. Many kids can get vaccinated now. So these are things that are really good. But if people don't feel that — if they see inflation, continue to see that gas prices are up and milk is expensive — there’s going to be a disconnect from that message. And if the administration’s numbers are bad, her numbers are going to be bad.
Fossett: Do you think that this will be a serious problem for her and her career? She’s the first female vice president, and so this has the potential to be a really bad cautionary tale.
Daniels: I don't know if we know the answer just yet. I will say that there are lots of people in her world that are supportive of her, such as donors of hers, that are worried, especially because she has taken on or been given these extremely difficult tasks that, for example, can’t be done through reconciliation. Like voting rights. So that is causing frustration for people who want her to run and think she would be a good president. But at the same time, there’s a lot of time from now until then.
There’s this vice presidential historian, Joel Goldstein, and he and I were talking yesterday, and what he said to me is that most of the people who want to be president would want to be vice president first. It puts you in the room. It gives you more gravitas when you’re talking on a debate stage, when everyone’s talking about policy issues, and you can actually say, “Yeah, well, I've worked on that policy issue with the president of the United States. And here’s what I know.” Al Gore ... it obviously didn’t work out for him, but look at George H.W. Bush, or look at Biden. It is a good jumping off point. But we’ve never tested it with a woman, and we’ve never tested it with a Black person or a person of color. I think it is going to be fascinating, whenever she does end up running again, how people grade what she did as vice president.
MARK YOUR CALENDARS -- Tune in next Wednesday, November 17, at 4 p.m. for Women Rule’s inaugural Women Rule: The Exchange community event, “Leading in the New World of Work.” We’ll have some great guests: White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki will join us to talk about what life is like inside the White House, especially for working mothers, and the latest developments with the Biden agenda. Rep. Maria Salazar will talk about how she sees the Republican agenda helping working women and the party’s efforts to recruit women to run for office. And economist and Republican policy adviser Abby McCloskey, Executive Director of the National Domestic Workers Alliance Ai-jen Poo, and Lisa Osborne Ross, U.S. CEO of Edelman, will chat about how businesses and governments are reimagining the future of work for women. Sign up for the event here!! ... (Read more about The Exchange, a new membership program for Women Rule that POLITICO announced this week)
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Source: https://www.politico.com/