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After a string of stories and analyses suggesting Ukraine’s counteroffensive isn’t going well, the Biden administration insisted today that there’s actually a case for optimism.

“We do not assess that the conflict is a stalemate,” national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN told reporters. “We are seeing [Ukraine] continue to take territory on a methodical, systematic basis.”

He did offer a caveat, however: “I cannot handicap or predict how things will end up unfolding in the course of this war.”

Sullivan’s take comes at a good time for Kyiv. Ukrainian forces today said they took Robotyne, moving them closer to Melitopol, the city Kyiv’s troops need to capture to cut off Russia’s land bridge to Crimea. To get there, the Ukrainians need to trudge 14 miles south to Tokmak, which isn’t guaranteed as the Wall Street Journal notes “tank traps and other barriers … could make the next phase of the fighting even more difficult for Ukraine.”

FRANZ-STEFAN GADY, a military analyst who has advised U.S. and European forces, agrees with the Sullivan-expressed view. “Military campaigns go through different phases,” he told NatSec Daily. “Even if there are operational pauses, or either side isn’t making many territorial gains, it doesn’t necessarily mean that we are talking about a stalemate.”

“Ukraine certainly has the initiative,” the Institute for the Study of War’s GEORGE BARROS said, adding Moscow’s forces are so spent that they’re unlikely to launch a successful major offensive within the next six months.

The relatively rosier outlook flies in the face of increasingly pessimistic reporting on the counteroffensive. The New York Times has a story today about the U.S. giving unheeded military advice to Ukraine, which U.S. officials say is a key reason for the counteroffensive’s struggles. The Washington Post reported last week on a U.S. intelligence assessment that says Ukrainian forces won’t reach Melitopol.

Russian forces are attacking in the north, Sullivan confirmed, causing Ukraine to defend against their maneuvers. Western-trained troops have struggled to make gains, though Ukrainian commanders on the front lines contend the situation is improving.

There’s also the fact that Ukraine has already involved parts of nearly all of its brigades in the conflict, meaning there’s little more Kyiv can add to fight the Russians. For weeks, experts have expressed skepticism that Ukraine can punch through Russian defenses along the 600-mile front, though they note that there have been surprises throughout the war.

What we’ve been hearing overall is that, whenever the counteroffensive ends, the thing to look for is how quickly Ukraine and Russia can regenerate combat power, allowing them to launch a new offensive by the end of the year or early next year.

“In a war of attrition, it’s ultimately a race to the bottom, and this counteroffensive will boil down to reserves,” Gady said. The question now is: “Who is going to run out of reserves sooner?”

AFRICAN UNION SUSPENDS NIGER: The African Union has suspended Niger until “the effective restoration of constitutional order,” according to the Associated Press’ SAM MEDNICK.

The suspension is the first public action taken by the 55-member continental bloc since its members met last month to discuss its response to a coup against President MOHAMED BAZOUM that has tested the resolve of regional actors.

It also comes as the Economic Community of West African States has struggled to make headway in restoring Bazoum and returning the country to civilian rule. Last month, ECOWAS threatened to use force if necessary to dislodge the junta and continues to raise the specter of a military intervention, but the bloc’s ultimatums have passed with no immediate action.

The junta has said that it will return the country to constitutional democracy within three years, mirroring the promises other Sahel nations have made in the wake of coups.

GET OUT OF BELARUS: The United States urged citizens to leave Belarus “immediately” on Monday, citing the country’s continued support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and buildup of Russian soldiers there.

Americans also shouldn’t travel to Belarus due to the “potential of civil unrest, the risk of detention, and the Embassy’s limited ability to assist U.S. citizens residing in or traveling to Belarus,” the embassy said in a statement.

Those in Belarus should use “the remaining border crossings” with Lithuania or Latvia to leave or take a plane, the embassy said, and avoid traveling to Russia and Ukraine.

IT’S SABOTAGE: Ukrainian saboteurs were behind recent drone strikes on Russian military targets inside the country, Kyiv’s media outlets reported today.

“The attacks on Russian airfields on Saturday and Monday destroyed two Russian bombers and damaged two other aircraft, according to Ukrainska Pravda,” the Associated Press’ SUSIE BLANN reports. “That newspaper and Ukraine’s NV news outlet said groups of saboteurs were behind the audacious strikes, which suggest that Ukraine’s scope of action is broadening. It was not possible to verify the claims on the ground.”

The Saturday strike was on Soltsy air base in Novgorod, in northwestern Russia, and the Monday attack was on Shaikovka air base in the southwest Kaluga region. Both are many miles over the Ukrainian border into sovereign Russian territory.

The Biden administration has long said it doesn’t encourage or help Ukraine to attack inside Russia.

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DEBATE PREP: Tomorrow is the first GOP debate, and while we’ll have more to say about it in the days ahead, here’s what insiders are telling us to expect.

Ramaswamy will be targeted. VIVEK RAMASWAMY’s foreign policy will likely draw attention. He has called for the U.S. to get close to Russia in an effort to weaken China, eventually wind down military support for Israel and put a time limit on America’s defense of Taiwan. His views are unorthodox and many believe the GOP’s more traditional voices will attack them — and him.

Ukraine split. Differences about how much to support Ukraine will be on display. MIKE PENCE, NIKKI HALEY, CHRIS CHRISTIE and ASA HUTCHINSON will say the U.S. should stay the course in backing Kyiv, though they’ll hit President JOE BIDEN for not sending more advanced weapons to Ukraine earlier in the conflict.

Ramaswamy, of course, won’t make that pitch. The big question is what RON DeSANTIS, who once called the conflict a “territorial dispute” before calling VLADIMIR PUTIN a “war criminal,” will say about the fight. It’s his biggest chance yet to define his overall foreign policy vision.

Trump legacy. Though DONALD TRUMP won’t be present, candidates will likely weigh in on whether his four years in office made the world safer or not. Most will say yes — “Abraham Accords” and “tough on China” should be on your Bingo card — while there’ll be a disagreement over his approach toward Russia. That conversation will be indicative of the whole debate: Trump will dominate it even without being there.

TRUDEAU FLAMES META: Canadian Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU criticized Meta’s decision to block users from sharing news articles about the wildfires that continue to ravage large swaths of the country.

“It is so inconceivable that a company like Facebook is choosing to put corporate profits ahead of ensuring that local news organizations can get up-to-date information to Canadians,” Trudeau told reporters Monday, per the Associated Press’ ROB GILLIES.

Meta had promised earlier this year to continue blocking news articles from Canada because of a new law that requires tech giants to pay publishers for linking to their content. The restriction comes as fires have displaced tens of thousands of Canadians, and Meta “is putting corporate profits ahead of people’s safety,” Trudeau said.

REAP WHAT YOU DRONE: Iran unveiled a drone today that looks an awful lot like an American MQ-9 Reaper, the Associated Press’ NASSER KARIMI and JON GAMBRELL report.

Iranian officials claim the Mohajer-10 can be airborne for 24 hours and reach as far away as the country’s top regional adversary, Israel. “Today, we can firmly introduce Iran as an advanced and technologic nation to the world,” Iranian President EBRAHIM RAISI said in televised comments.

State-run media, per the AP, indicated “the drone is able to fly up to 24,000 feet with a speed of 210 kph (130 mph), carrying a bomb payload of up to 300 kilograms (660 pounds). It also said the drone could carry electronic surveillance equipment and a camera.”

While Iran has captured whole drones before, there’s no public evidence that it seized a Reaper and copied it.

Read: Facing threat of Trump’s return, Ukrainians ramp up homegrown arms industry by POLITICO’s VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA.

SPACECOM PROBE: House Armed Services Chair MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.) is turning up the pressure on Pentagon brass after Biden undid a Trump-era decision to move U.S. Space Command from Colorado to Alabama. Rogers wants Air Force Secretary FRANK KENDALL, U.S. Space Command head Gen. JAMES DICKINSON and Chief of Space Operations Gen. CHANCE SALTZMAN to testify at a public hearing on the headquarters decision, our colleague CONNOR O’BRIEN reports (for Pros!).

The Colorado and Alabama delegations have traded charges of political favoritism in the basing decision. Vowing to “get answers,” Rogers accused Biden of overriding Kendall to give a handout to a blue state. (Dickinson, however, backed keeping the command in Colorado.)

“When the Secretary of the Air Force finally made a decision, he upheld his predecessors’ decision to base U.S. Space Command in Huntsville, Alabama,” Rogers said. “President Biden then usurped the Air Force Secretary’s authority and named Colorado Springs the permanent basing site for U.S. Space Command in order to improve his political standing for next year’s re-election.”

AMLO BASHES REUTERS: Mexico’s President ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR is attacking Reuters over a story it published last week on the use of remittances by organized crime groups to funnel money between the U.S. and Mexico. AMLO’s comments come as remittances to Mexico, a key part of his economic messaging, exceeded a record $60 billion this year.

At his daily morning press conference Monday, AMLO called Reuters “deceivers” and “liars” and slammed the validity of its report, suggesting it was thinly sourced and relied on “one or two interviews.” López Obrador also claimed the report suggested most remittances to Mexico were tied to illegal activity. Economists argue that increased remittances, which now amount to 4 percent of the country’s GDP, have helped Mexico stave off economic crisis.

Reuters is standing by its report, which used U.S. federal court filings and over 60 interviews to document how some Mexican residents were paid by the Sinaloa Cartel to serve as intermediaries for money transfers between cartel members in the U.S. and their bosses in Mexico.

— GORDON GRAY is now the Kuwait professor of Gulf and Arabian Peninsula affairs at George Washington University. He was on the faculty at Penn State and was the U.S. ambassador to Tunisia when the Arab Spring began.

— KEENAN SKELLY is now senior policy adviser for the Office of the National Cyber Director. She most recently was CEO of Spark Security Solutions and founder of the XRVillage.

— BECCA WASSER, Center for a New American Security: Campaign of denial: strengthening simultaneous deterrence in the Indo-Pacific and Europe

— JOSH ROGIN, The Washington Post: The U.S. is back in East Asia — but for how long?

— CALVIN WILDER and NICHOLAS HERAS, New Lines Institute: The looming challenge in U.S.-Israel security cooperation

— The Government Executive Media Group, 9 a.m.: How FedRAMP is tackling the year ahead and meeting a new moment in cyber threats

— The Business Council for International Understanding, 9 a.m.: A virtual discussion with U.S. Ambassador to Qatar TIMMY DAVIS

— George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 10 a.m.: Central Asia: A loophole for Russia’s sanctions

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10:30 a.m.: Virtual discussion on the Department of Defense’s newly released biodefense posture review

— The Business Council for International Understanding, 12 p.m.: A virtual discussion on UK defense priorities with U.K. defense attache Rear Adm. TIMOTHY WOODS

— The Atlantic Council, 1:30 p.m.: 2023 BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) Summit: Africa in action

— The Business Council for International Understanding, 7 p.m.: Virtual discussion with U.S. Ambassador to Korea PHILIP GOLDBERG

— House Committee on Natural Resources, 8 p.m.: Field hearing on “Peace through strength: the strategic importance of the Pacific islands to U.S.-led global security”

Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, whose progress as an editor is certainly at a stalemate.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is always advancing toward greatness.