Hi, China Watchers. This week we assess incoming Chinese ambassador to the U.S., Xie Feng, and examine lawmakers’ concerns about how congressional China threat rhetoric may fuel a fresh surge in hate crimes against Asians. The Lunar New Year falls on Sunday, so we have a personalized astrological guide to the Rabbit Year fortunes of key U.S.-China power brokers. And with an eye to Xie Feng’s imminent arrival, we profile a book that defines China’s diplomatic corps as nothing less than a “civilian army.”

Let’s get to it. — Phelim

Beijing has selected Vice Foreign Minister XIE FENG as China’s new ambassador to the U.S., two Chinese diplomats tell China Watcher.

Xie will likely arrive in February following “completion of official procedures,” one of the people told China Watcher. Both were granted anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak on the record.

Xie has big shoes to fill.

His predecessor, QIN GANG, had a direct line to Chinese paramount leader XI JINPING, a relationship that propelled him to foreign minister this month. While Xie is a career diplomat and specialist in U.S.-China relations, he lacks Qin’s close ties to the Chinese senior leadership

That may be a distinction that will help Qin in his role as foreign minister.

It’s unclear what role, if any, Qin played in Xie’s appointment. But Qin will benefit from having Xie — a less-well connected diplomat — as ambassador in the U.S. because he’ll “always report everything to [Qin] who will then bring that information to Xi Jinping himself,” said VICTOR SHIH, an expert in Chinese elite politics and the Ho Miu Lam chair in China and Pacific Relations at UC San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy. That will solidify Qin’s status as Xi’s “crucial intermediary” on U.S.-China relations, Shih said.

Xie was selected as ambassador over Assistant Foreign Minister HUA CHUNYING, a Washington, D.C.-based diplomat with expertise in Chinese foreign policy told China Watcher. As a foreign ministry spokesperson, Hua has become notorious for sharp-tongued pushback against foreign critics. The Chinese leadership’s choice of Xie might signal a preference for a less-caustic interlocutor as Beijing seeks to ease friction in the U.S.-China relationship following Xi’s meeting with Biden in November.

But Xie has his own record of wolf warrior-style diplomacy. In his previous role as the foreign ministry’s commissioner in Hong Kong, Xie decried foreign criticism of the territory’s often brutal police response to pro-democracy protesters in 2019 and blamed that unrest on shadowy “foreign forces.” Xie led a frosty meeting with Deputy Secretary of State WENDY SHERMAN in July 2021 during which he scolded her for what he said was the administration’s "highly misguided mindset and dangerous policy" toward China. Xie sent Sherman home with a “List of U.S. Wrongdoings that Must Stop” and a “List of Key Individual Cases that China Has Concerns With” to ensure she got the message.

That rhetoric “was probably more of a wolf-warrior performance for career purposes…[rather] than a genuine inclination,” argued DIMITAR GUEORGUIEV, an associate professor of political science at Syracuse University and an expert on Chinese elite politics. With Xi now signaling a shift to less rancorous bilateral ties, “I expect [Xie] to be more kumbaya-ish.”

But those sharp edges haven’t gone away. Xie accused the U.S. of “besieging China through geopolitics such as the Indo-Pacific Strategy,” in a speech on Monday. And if he brings that pugnacity to D.C. he risks a Biden administration cold shoulder.

Xie’s choice of diplomatic persona — aggressive or congenial — ultimately hinges on Xi’s vision of U.S.-China relations. In the foreign ministry, “the game is to intuit what Xi wants, and bring it to him better than anyone else,” said JOSEPH TORIGIAN, an expert on Chinese elite politics and an assistant professor at American University’s School of International Service.

Congressional ‘China threat’ focus fuels Asian hate fears

Rep. JUDY CHU (D-Calif.), chair of the Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus, is warning that an intensifying congressional focus on China’s perceived security threat to the U.S. may fuel a fresh wave of hate crimes targeting Asian and Pacific island Americans.

Chu described the unprovoked stabbing last week of an Asian American student in Bloomington, Indiana — by an assailant who police say targeted the victim believing she was Chinese — as a reminder of the risks.

“Political rhetoric matters, and can have fatal consequences when targeted at marginalized groups,” Chu told China Watcher. Chu called on fellow lawmakers to avoid making “broad generalized statements that vilify entire communities.”

Lawmakers have a new forum to air their fears about China in the recently launched House Select Committee on China, chaired by Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.). The committee should avoid “blatantly xenophobic anti-China rhetoric” in order to mitigate the possibility that it could inspire violence against Asia Americans, Chu said in a statement last week.

That won’t happen, says Rep. YOUNG KIM, (R-Calif), a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee Asia subcommittee. “There is no question that we have seen hate crimes targeting Asian Americans on the rise since Covid-19 and this is unacceptable,” Kim said in a statement. But the new China committee “will focus on countering the CCP — not targeting the Chinese people, Chinese Americans or our AAPI community.”

 IN CASE YOU MISSED IT…

BIDEN-KISHIDA BRO-FEST

Japanese Prime Minister FUMIO KISHIDA’s meeting with President JOE BIDEN at the White House on Friday — complete with warm embraces and Kishida calling Biden by his first name — raised hackles in Beijing. Not least because of Kishida’s assessment that the U.S. and Japan face “the most challenging and complex security environment in recent history,” an implicit reference to Tokyo’s perception of a growing Chinese military threat in the region.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson WANG WENBIN called that rhetoric an “ugly playbook jointly used by Japan and the U.S. to tarnish China’s image.” Read the full story by me and POLITICO’s ELI STOKOLS and JONATHAN LEMIRE on Biden’s success in aligning Japan with his China-countering Indo-Pacific Strategy here.

 CHINA’S DEMOGRAPHIC TIME BOMB — China’s population declined for the first time since 1961, according to data released Tuesday by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, which reported 9.56 million births and 10.41 million deaths in 2022.

While an aging population is a problem faced by countries around the world, the new figures are a harbinger of a demographic crisis for China, given its economic model. You can read my chat with POLITICO Nightly’s ARI HAWKINS about what the population decline means for China and the global economy here.

TRANSLATING WASHINGTON

— YELLEN CHINA-BOUND IN ‘NEAR FUTURE’: Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN “looks forward to traveling to China…in the near future,” according to a Treasury Department readout of her meeting on Wednesday in Zurich with outgoing Chinese Vice Premier LIU HE. Treasury described the meeting as a “frank exchange of views” that produced an agreement to “enhance cooperation on climate finance.” Chinese state news agency Xinhua said Liu complained to Yellen about “U.S. economic, trade and technological policies toward China.”

— PACIFIC ISLAND STRATEGIC DEALS: Special Presidential Envoy Amb. JOSEPH YUN secured memorandums of understanding with the governments of Palau and Marshall Islands last week, a key step in renewing China-countering strategic agreements with the two countries. Those deals give the U.S. the right to deny outsider access to those countries’ water, airspace and land. The treaties in turn obligate the U.S. to provide the three countries a host of government services, financial assistance and rights of visa-free migration.

The MOUs specify U.S. economic support to the two countries linked to the pending renewals. That support marks “a significant increase from previous agreements,” Yun told China Watcher, without elaborating on the price tag.

Palau, Marshall Islands and Micronesia all have strategic agreements, called Compacts of Free Association, with the U.S. The COFAs for Micronesia and Marshall Islands expire in 2023, while Palau’s expires in 2024. Yun is confident he will finalize COFA renewals with all three countries before the end of this year. That will effectively firewall those three countries from Beijing’s efforts to displace the U.S. as the region’s dominant superpower.

“It's no secret given their strategic importance that throughout the Pacific [island countries], China has been making inroads, so for us to pretend [COFA renewal] has nothing to do with China doesn’t make sense,” Yun said.

— MEEKS: PROTECT HONG KONGERS FROM DEPORTATION: Rep. GREGORY MEEKS (R-N.Y.), House Foreign Affairs Committee Ranking Member, urged the Biden administration last week to “take immediate steps” to extend deportation protection to Hong Kong citizens in the U.S. by another 18 months. The Deferred Enforced Departure for Certain Hong Kong Citizens expires on Feb. 5, fueling fear among Hong Kongers in the U.S. about potential reprisals if they return to the territory. Read my full story here.

— WHO: MORE CHINA COVID DATA PLEASE: The World Health Organization needs Beijing to be more forthcoming with data on its widening Covid outbreak. China has shared some data, but “WHO continues to ask that further [virus] sequences be shared… and for continued collaboration with technical groups working on virus evolution, clinical care, and beyond,” a WHO statement published last week said.

The WHO also requested “transparency on understanding the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic,” a reference to Beijing’s stonewalling of the agency’s efforts to access data from the controversial Wuhan Institute of Virology. Chinese government data published on Saturday indicates that the country’s Covid surge had killed at least 60,000 people from Dec. 8 to Jan. 12, a tally that experts said was a serious undercounting of fatalities. The Chinese foreign ministry’s Wang on Tuesday sidestepped that criticism by urging the U.S. to take “effective measures to stop the virus from further spreading.”

— TRUMP RELEASES CHINA-BASHING CAMPAIGN VIDEO: Former President and aspirant 2024 GOP presidential candidate DONALD TRUMP released a campaign video on Wednesday slamming what he described as Chinese government efforts to “take over our critical infrastructure.” In the two and a half minute video Trump promised to “enact aggressive new restrictions on Chinese ownership of any vital infrastructure” in the U.S. in sectors including agriculture, telecommunications and technology.

— RABBIT YEAR POWER BROKER FORTUNES FORETOLD: Sunday marks the start of the lunar Year of the Rabbit, the fourth of the Chinese zodiac’s 12 animal symbols. And given the tense state of U.S.-China relations, that magical bunny is just what we need given that astrologists predict that the rabbit ushers in “a year of hope.” China Watcher tapped the expertise of MASTER TSAI’s online Chinese Fortune Calendar 2023 to plot the fortunes of key power brokers in U.S.-China relations according to their birth year.

Chinese paramount leader XI JINPING is a snake (1953). We can ignore any fresh coup rumors this year because if snakes face any career trouble, “someone will appear to help you solve the problem.” And rabbit year may be suboptimal for a Taiwan invasion because snakes with disputes “might lose the case” and should instead “reconcile with the opponent as soon as possible.” Peace in our time!

President JOE BIDEN (1942) and Chinese Foreign Minister QIN GANG (1966) were born under the sign of the horse. As Biden gears up for a likely 2024 re-election bid and Qin tests his legs as China’s foreign minister, Rabbit year promises a dividend of “a good reputation” for horses. But politics and diplomacy are hard on one’s health, so horses are advised to “pay attention to your kidneys, bladder and urinary system.”

Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN(1962) was born under the sign of the tiger — and that carries predictions for career shifts. “If you have an opportunity for a new position, you should consider accepting it,” Master Tsai advises tigers. Tigers should also refrain from lending money to friends and — in a possible reference to Chinese Belt and Road initiative projects — “avoid investing in high-risk businesses.

National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN (1976) and incoming Chinese ambassador to the U.S., Xie Feng (1964), were born under the sign of the dragon. Both of them may want to be open to new career opportunities this year, according to Master Tsai. Rabbit year is ideal for dragons to “look for a better position.”

National Security Council Indo-Pacific coordinator Kurt Campbell (1957) was born under the sign of the rooster. Master Tsai advises roosters to “learn to work smarter.” With a nod to potentially difficult discussions with Chinese officials in the year ahead, roosters should “watch [their] words and behaviors not to inadvertently hurt people's dignity.” Ouch!

U.S. ambassador to China, NICHOLAS BURNS (1956), was born under the year of the monkey. And after a year of severe zero-Covid lockdowns followed by the current surge in Covid infections across China, Master Tsai says Burns and his fellow monkeys are in for a year of “joy, victory, and enjoyment.” Tsai advises monkeys that aside from possible gallbladder and liver ailments, “everything is going your way.”

HEADLINES

CNN: “China posts one of its worst economic performances in decades because of Covid”

China Media Project: “Whitewashing China’s Record on Covid”

Newsweek: “Covert China: Uncovering Beijing's Worldwide Influence Operations”

HEADS UP

— BLINKEN IN BEIJING ON FEB. 5-6: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN will meet in Beijing with his counterpart, Chinese Foreign Minister QIN GANG, on Feb. 5-6, as I reported on Monday. Blinken’s much-anticipated China trip is a follow-up to President Joe Biden’s meeting with Xi in Indonesia in November at which Biden pledged to “maintain open lines of communication” with Beijing at a time of worsening bilateral tensions. Wang at the foreign ministry expressed hope on Tuesday that Blinken’s visit will reset relations “back to the track of sound and steady growth,” Read my full story here.

The Book: China's Civilian Army: The Making of Wolf Warrior Diplomacy

The Author: PETER MARTIN is a defense policy and intelligence reporter at Bloomberg.

Responses have been edited for length and clarity.

What is the most important takeaway from your book?

China’s diplomatic apparatus is incredibly sensitive to the will and wishes of the Chinese Communist Party’s leadership — especially Xi Jinping. The displays of “wolf warrior diplomacy” that we’ve seen in recent years are not the result of a few rogue actors dragging the system in a new direction. Instead, these displays are the calibrated response of smart, talented individuals to new incentives. Xi told Chinese envoys that he wanted “fighting spirit” from his diplomats and we’ve watched China’s diplomatic corps figure out what that means in real time — sometimes in public.

What was the most surprising thing you learned while researching and writing this book?

Behavior that seems self-defeating, aggressive and even bizarre from the outside makes total sense when you put yourself in the shoes of individual Chinese diplomats. If you’re looking to further your career or just to cover your own back in a political environment that is increasingly nationalistic and intolerant of dissent, then wolf warrior tactics can seem like a pretty safe recourse.

What does your book tell us about the trajectory and future of U.S.-China relations?

U.S.-China ties will only improve substantively when Xi Jinping decides that he wants them to. And that’s going to require meaningful changes in Chinese policy. The improvement in U.S.-China relations in the 1990s involved a charm offensive by Chinese diplomats, but it was also backed up by real economic liberalization and a relaxation of some political controls that made changes to China’s diplomatic messaging seem credible. In recent months, we’ve seen a slight recalibration of wolf warrior tactics, but that hasn’t been accompanied by the kind of substantive policy changes that would translate into a significant improvement in ties.

Got a book to recommend? Tell me about it at [email protected]

Thanks to: Heidi Vogt, Matt Kaminski, Eli Stokols, Jonathan Lemire, Ari Hawkins and digital producer Andrew Howard.Do you have tips? Chinese-language stories we might have missed? Would you like to contribute to China Watcher or comment on this week's items? Email us at [email protected]