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If you thought Ukraine would be unhappy that the U.S. privately believes its counteroffensive won’t be a big success, then congratulations — you’re right.

Senior Ukrainian officials are upset by a leaked “top secret” assessment from February suggesting Ukraine would make only “modest territorial gains” from its planned operation. The Washington Post, which reported the document on Monday, said it was part of the growing leak of classified U.S. intelligence on the war in Ukraine, China, Israel and other global hotspots.

Kyiv says the document shows the U.S. is once again underestimating its military’s capabilities.

“The same people who said Kyiv would fall in three days are now leaking harmful and equally ridiculous information ahead of an offensive critically important for the entire free world,” said a person in regular contact with senior officials in Kyiv.

“There are some people who continue to be hesitant” about Ukraine’s military chances in the counteroffensive, a Ukrainian defense official said, “but we’ve proved everybody wrong.” The projections of Ukraine’s chances are “not the truth,” this official continued. “It gives us grounds for suspicion” of just how seriously the U.S. backs Ukraine’s objectives of fully pushing Russia out of the country.

That sentiment is widespread within the Ukrainian government, per another person with similar high-level contacts in Kyiv. All three people were granted anonymity to detail sensitive internal deliberations in Ukraine.

The comments make clear that the United States and Ukraine aren’t as in sync as both countries claim 14 months into the war. It could also portend less trust between Washington and Kyiv ahead of a crucial few months of fighting that could dictate the course of the war with Russia. With Russia in control of 20 percent of Ukrainian territory, the hope is that the counteroffensive, even with dwindling supplies, will force Moscow’s troops and mercenaries out of the country they invaded.

The Biden administration is now in damage-control mode, with Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN affirming America’s “ironclad” commitment to Ukraine in a call with Foreign Minister DMYTRO KULEBA, and Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN engaging Ukraine’s Defense Minister OLEKSII REZNIKOV and Prime Minister DENYS SHMYHAL.

Read Alex’s full article.

DOC LEAKS CONT.: Almost a week after the leaked documents were first reported, there’s no end in sight to the U.S. intelligence secrets being unveiled to the public — and officials still don’t know the scope or origin of the breach.

Among new revelations is that American-made smart bombs are falling victim to Russian electronic jamming in Ukraine, causing them to miss their targets, our own LARA SELIGMAN reports. That adds to an increasingly bleak picture of the state of Ukraine’s military that has emerged since the trove was posted online.

Also, Serbia — one of the few European countries to refuse to sanction Russia amid its invasion of Ukraine — has either agreed to send Kyiv weapons, or has already sent them, Reuters’ JONATHAN LANDAY and ALEKSANDAR VASOVIC report. Serbian Defense Minister MILOS VUCEVIC called the documents’ content “untrue.”

Another set of leaked CIA documents apparently confirm that Hungary isn’t a fan of the United States, as Prime Minister VIKTOR ORBÁN named Washington as one of the top three adversaries of his party, the Wall Street Journal’s THOMAS GROVE reported. Orbán didn’t immediately respond to the report, which refers to a political strategy meeting held by him in February.

NO TIMELINE ON WSJ JOURNO: American officials said they’ve had no success in contacting Wall Street Journal reporter EVAN GERSHKOVICH, who was detained by Russian authorities on espionage charges in late March.

“I would imagine in the coming days, weeks, months, we will have a chance to start engaging the Russians on this topic,” ROGER CARSTENS, the special presidential envoy for hostage affairs, told CBS on Wednesday.

The U.S. has still been unable to gain consular access. In the meantime, the U.S. has begun sketching out “what a negotiation might look like,” Carstens said, adding that he’ll visit the Gershkovich family in the coming days.

REPLENISHING ROCKETS: China and Russia are in advanced secret talks with Iran to replenish the Islamic Republic’s supply of a key chemical compound used to propel ballistic missiles, our own MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG reports.

Tehran has held concurrent negotiations with officials and government-controlled entities from both countries to acquire large amounts of ammonium perchlorate, the main ingredient in solid propellants used to power missiles, according to diplomats familiar with the matter. Such a move would mark a clear violation of United Nations sanctions and possibly help Moscow replenish its depleted stock of rockets.

The exact quantity of the chemical compound Iran is seeking to purchase isn’t clear, but the diplomats estimate it would be sufficient to build thousands of rockets, some of which could end up being deployed against Ukraine.

BERLIN’S NATO BLUNDER: Germany’s land forces cannot fulfill their NATO commitments, according to a leaked memo from a top soldier, German newspaper Bild reported.

A division that Germany promised to NATO isn’t fully ready for battle, the newspaper reported citing a message from ALFONS MAIS, the army’s inspector general, to the armed forces’ inspector general. Berlin had promised the fully-equipped army division in response to the war in Ukraine as early as 2025, two years earlier than planned.

“The army will not be able to hold its own in high-intensity combat and will also only be able to fulfill its obligations to NATO to a limited extent,” the army chief was quoted by the newspaper. Still, the 2025 commitment remains unchanged, a German defense ministry spokesperson told our own GABRIEL RINALDI.

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‘KISSING XI’S ASS’: That’s what former President DONALD TRUMP accused EMMANUEL MACRON of doing after the French president’s trip to Beijing last week, our own NICOLAS CAMUT reports.

Trump’s comments about Macron — “a friend of mine” — followed the French president’s suggestion that Europe avoid getting dragged into a U.S.-China confrontation over Taiwan, a remark that has caused international backlash.

The interview with Fox News’ TUCKER CARLSON was full of natsec-y tidbits, including:

• A disagreement with Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. MARK MILLEY about the Afghanistan withdrawal: “I said I want every nail, I want every screw, I want the tents … a couple of them fought me on it, like Milley. He said, ‘Sir, I think it’s cheaper to leave the equipment behind.’”
• A talk with Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN about Ukraine: “I could see that he loved it. He considers it to be a part of Russia. I said, ‘Not when I’m president’ ... I was the worst thing that ever happened to him.”
• A chat with Chinese leader XI JINPING about Taiwan: “I told him you can’t go into Taiwan. You can’t do it. I won’t tell you exactly what I said. But it was something that probably a lot of people wouldn’t like if they heard it.”

SCOTT’S (LIKELY) IN: Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) launched his presidential exploratory committee, the clearest sign yet of his intentions to run for the GOP ticket in 2024, Matt reports.

Throughout an announcement video, Scott repeatedly took aim at Biden and Democrats, vowing to stand up to China and secure the borders, give parents a choice in their childrens’ education and protect religious liberty. Most of the video was shot at Fort Sumter, a former military post in South Carolina considered to be where the Civil War began.

WAGNER GROUP GAMERS: The Russian paramilitary force Wagner Group has been attempting to penetrate gaming apps including Discord, where the Pentagon docs were leaked.

Microsoft President BRAD SMITH said the company has identified attempts by the group and Russian intelligence, who use such gaming communities “as a place to get information into circulation,” he explained during Semafor’s World Economy Summit.

“It’s not like playing Call of Duty is going to, like, lead to deaths in the real world,” Smith added, but his company continues to advise governments around the world on the issue as it becomes a prominent place to circulate information.

NATIONAL GUARD DEATHS: Twenty-eight U.S. National Guard helicopter crew members outside of combat have been killed over the past decade because of operator errors, which include overconfidence and not following standards, according to a review by the Government Accountability Office, Bloomberg’s ANTHONY CAPACCIO and STEVEN DENNIS report. The deaths, between 2012 and 2021, were the most serious toll from nearly 300 helicopter accidents during non-combat operations.

MOROCCAN ARMS DEAL: The administration announced $774.2 million in possible arms sales to Morocco, a major non-NATO ally and a close partner with Washington on counterterrorism operations in the Maghreb and Sahel region, our friends over at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report.

The sale includes 18 High-Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and 40 Army Tactical Missile Systems, and a raft of other equipment made by L3Harris, Raytheon Technologies, Cobham Aerospace Connectivity, Oshkosh Defense and AM General. Forty Joint Standoff Weapons, made by Raytheon, make up a second package, also announced Tuesday.

BRIDGING THE GAP: Rep. YOUNG KIM of California, one of two Korean-American Republicans in Congress, has sought to serve as a link between America’s Conservative Party and the right-wing government in Seoul, write our own OLIVIA BEAVERS and NICHOLAS WU.

A recent blowup on Capitol Hill illustrated this tension in wrenching terms: When Rep. LANCE GOODEN (R-Texas) questioned the national loyalty of a leading Asian American Democrat, the U.S.-born Rep. JUDY CHU of California, Kim sought a private meeting with Gooden. She did not call him out publicly at the time, but said during an interview in Seoul that his comments were inappropriate.

“Lance, out of nowhere, started attacking her loyalty. So I said ‘no.’ Whether or not she is a Democrat or Republican, it didn’t matter,” Kim said. “Don’t question someone’s loyalty when she is born in the U.S., and she has served honorably in her position.”

SENATORS IN KYIV: Sens. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.), MARK KELLY (D-Ariz.) and LISA MURKOWSKI (R-Alaska) met Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY in Kyiv Wednesday. And, yes, country star BRAD PAISLEY was also in attendance.

‘THESE BEASTS KILL’: Zelenskyy condemned Russian soldiers as “beasts” over the execution of a Ukrainian soldier, after a video published on social media appeared to show the victim beheaded while still alive, Nicolas and VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA report.

“There is something that no one in the world can ignore: how easily these beasts kill,” the Ukrainian president said in a video posted on Twitter. “This is a video of Russia as it is, what kind of creatures they are, there are no people for them: a son, a brother, a husband, someone’s child.”

In recent days, two videos have appeared. One supposedly filmed by Wagner Group mercenaries shows the bodies of two Ukrainian soldiers, whose heads and hands were cut off, and appeared on pro-Russian social channels. Another — seemingly shot in the summer — shows a Russian using a knife to sever the head of a Ukrainian prisoner, who appears to be pleading with his killer.

TREASURY’S TARGETS: The U.S. imposed sanctions on more than 120 people and entities across more than 20 countries, Blinken announced in a statement.

The U.S. and its allies imposed sanctions on Moscow following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and have cracked down on sanction evasions ever since. Washington will “continue to take action against Russia and those supporting its war in Ukraine, including further implementing the G7’s commitment to impose severe consequences on third country actors who support Russia’s war in Ukraine,” according to Blinken.

Among those targeted include China HEAD Aerospace Technology Co, a satellite image reseller based in Beijing that the State Department said supplied imagery of locations to entities affiliated with the Wagner Group. Another is the Patriot private military company that was said to be associated with Russian Defense Minister SERGEI SHOIGU.

Today, the U.S. also imposed sanctions on the Hungary-based International Investment Bank (IIB), a controversial institution with ties to the Russian state, reports our own LILI BAYER.

— LISA ATHERTON, former COO at Bell, has been named the company’s CEO. She is replacing MITCH SNYDER, who is retiring and worked as Bell CEO for over seven years.

— Editorial Board, The Washington Post: ‘A free China’: Why the words of a jailed dissident should be read far and wide

— RAJAN MENON, Foreign Affairs: Ukraine’s Best Chance

— BENJAMIN JENSEN and DAN TADROSS, War On The Rocks: How Large-Language Models Can Revolutionize Military Planning

— The Atlantic Council, 8:30 a.m.: Discussion with Polish Prime Minister MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI on the geopolitical situation in Europe

— The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, 9 a.m.: U.S.-Ukraine Partnership Forum

— U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 9:30 a.m.: China’s Pursuit of Defense Technologies

— The Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: How Health Security Strengthens National Security with former Health and Human Services Secretary TOM PRICE

— The Middle East Institute, 10 a.m.: Transactional or Strategic? The Future of Russo-Iranian Relations

— The National Defense Industrial Association, 1:30 p.m.: FY2024 DoD Science and Technology Budget Priorities

CORRECTION: A previous edition of NatSec Daily misstated one of Romania’s neighbors. Instead, it borders Ukraine, Moldova, Serbia, Hungary and Bulgaria.

Thanks to our editor, Dave Brown, though we formed an exploratory committee to replace him.

We also thank our producer, Greg Svirnovskiy, who is our top candidate.