Hi, Suzanne Lynch here, POLITICO’s chief Brussels correspondent and host of the EU Confidential podcast bringing you today’s Global Insider.

It’s been a busy few days here in Brussels — EU foreign and defense ministers have just wrapped up two days of meetings, the future of Ukraine is under scrutiny at the German Marshall Fund’s annual Brussels Forum event, and already focus is turning to July’s NATO summit in Vilnius, with NATO foreign ministers due to meet next week in Oslo.

UKRAINE’S NATO DANCE

GLOBAL INSIDER INTERVIEW: Less than two months until NATO’s Vilnius summit, Global Insider sat down with someone who knows a thing or two about the alliance — former Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen.

Music to Kyiv’s ears: Rasmussen, who has also served as prime minister of Denmark, said that the 75th anniversary of the alliance next year could be “an excellent opportunity to invite Ukraine to start the final negotiations on joining NATO.”

In the meantime, security guarantees should be issued to Ukraine, he said, “to guarantee Ukraine’s security until they can join NATO.”

He added: “Ukraine will become a member of NATO — this is still the position of NATO. Now, the time has come to go beyond that language.”

But, but, but … He dismissed the argument that this would be seen as a provocation by Russia.

“First of all, we should never ever give in to blackmail, because if we give in to blackmail is the same as surrendering to the autocrat,” he said.

“Secondly, Ukraine was attacked, not because it was a NATO member, but because it was in a gray zone. So the best way of guaranteeing Ukrainian security in the future would be to allow Ukraine into NATO.”

Background: Ukraine’s membership aspirations are likely to be a key focus of the July summit. The official position of the alliance? Everyone believes that Ukraine should join eventually — just not yet. (NATO agreed in principle that Ukraine should join at the Bucharest summit in 2008, but there has been little progress on its membership path since then.)

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba set out why Ukraine should join the alliance last month, blasting NATO for failing to live up to its 2008 promises. “It is time for the alliance to stop making excuses and start the process that leads to Ukraine’s eventual accession,” he wrote in Foreign Affairs magazine in an op-ed published last month.

Realpolitik: But some of NATO’s largest members are wary of accelerating Ukraine’s bid, insisting that the best support they can give is helping Kyiv win the war. Nonetheless, the alliance will be under pressure to offer Ukraine something tangible, not least a pathway to membership, at the July gathering.

7-point plan: Rasmussen is also advocating a seven-point peace plan or “Ukraine charter” based loosely on the Marshall Plan, which was outlined at the Copenhagen Security Summit earlier this month. This includes security guarantees for Ukraine; full restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, including Crimea; the creation of a Nuremberg-style special tribunal; and a reconstruction plan for Ukraine. “These principles are necessary to demonstrate solidarity but at the same time to create a frame for a future security architecture in Europe,” he said.

Hitting the road: Speaking of Kuleba, the foreign minister is currently on a trip to Africa, the latest effort by the Ukrainians to reach out beyond the transatlantic alliance for support, following President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s drop-in at the Arab Summit and G7. Zelenskyy has suggested a peace conference be held in July. Denmark has said it would host, but emphasized the need for countries like India, Brazil and China to be involved.

SWAPPING ONE LEADER FOR ANOTHER: U.S. President Joe Biden may have ditched his post-G7 trip to Sydney to return home and deal with the debt ceiling crisis, but at least Australia can console itself with a visit by Narendra Modi. The Indian prime minister was the star of the show at an event in Sydney’s Olympic Park Tuesday, with the two countries also signing a migration pact and announcing the creation of a new joint green hydrogen taskforce.

Who’s the boss? But Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese raised some eyebrows by hailing the increasingly authoritarian Modi as the next Bruce Springsteen on stage at the raucous event Tuesday. It’s “not up to me to pass a comment on some of the internal politics in India,” he said, stating that India would soon become the world’s third-largest economy.

DESANTIS BID: The U.S. 2024 presidential race steps up a gear later today, with Florida Governor Ron deSantis expected to announce his run for the Republican nomination. The 44-year-old has indicated he may announce the run in a Twitter Spaces session with Elon Musk. The move, my colleagues Sally Goldenberg and Meredith McGraw write, indicates that his 2024 campaign will be waged as much on Twitter “as in the town halls of Iowa or on cable TV.”

THE MORE THINGS CHANGE … Northern Ireland’s nationalist Sinn Féin party notched up a strong victory in local elections last weekend, cementing a long-term trend that has seen the party become the biggest in the region. Underpinned by demographic changes, and benefitting from a post-Brexit landscape, the party, which once was the political wing of the Irish Republican Army and favors the reunification of Ireland, is eclipsing rival unionist parties that support Northern Ireland staying in the U.K.

The more they stay the same … Sinn Féin is now the largest party in local government — building on its victory in last year’s assembly elections. But the region, which is still a part of the United Kingdom, is still without a sitting government as the Democratic Unionist Party continues to boycott power-sharing talks over its dissatisfaction with the Brexit agreement reached by the British government and the EU.

COP CHIEF UNDER FIRE: More than 130 lawmakers from the European Union and the United States are calling for the removal of oil executive Sultan Al Jaber as president of this year’s COP28 climate talks, hosted by the UAE, according to a letter seen by POLITICO. The appointment of Al Jaber, who runs the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, sparked controversy from the moment it was announced, my colleague Zia Weise reports.

UKRAINE WAR LATEST: Ukrainian pilots could start training on F-16 fighter jets in July, Denmark’s acting Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen indicated Tuesday.

MOVES

U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. Timothy Haugh, the No. 2 at U.S. Cyber Command, has been nominated by President Biden to serve as the new head of both U.S. Cyber Command and the National Security Agency.

The White House has nominated James O’ Brien as assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs at the State Department.

ROLL UP, ROLL UP! Our colleagues over at National Security Daily have this fun game — guessing who will be the next deputy secretary of state. Top of the list to replace Wendy Sherman are Deputy National Security Adviser Jonathan Finer, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland and State Department Counselor Derek Chollet. There’s also a wild card bandied about: Tom Malinowski, the former member of Congress and assistant secretary of state for democracy, human rights and labor. More details here.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY… to the European Central Bank, which turns 25 today. President Christine Lagarde will host a birthday bash at ECB Headquarters in Frankfurt this evening, with her predecessors Jean-Claude Trichet and Mario Draghi among those on the guest list.

Love him or hate him, the Economist has a must-read with Henry Kissinger. The former secretary of state, who turns 100 this weekend, shares his views on Ukraine, China-U.S. tensions, and how to avoid World War III.

The rehabilitation of Bashar al-Assad continues apace, with the Syrian dictator taking a prominent seat at the Arab summit in Jeddah last week. This insightful piece in Foreign Affairs by Emile Hokayem charts how Assad came in from the cold.

In the struggle for hearts and minds against Russia, Europe has its sights on a new target. Unfortunately for them, Latin America’s not listening. Cristina Gallardo, Hans von der Burchard and I explain why.

THANKS TO my editor Sanya Khetani-Shah and producer Sophie Gardner.

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