With help from Paul McLeary, Meridith McGraw and Jordain Carney

Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt

Nearly under his breath, former President DONALD TRUMP said that he and Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN “used to talk about” Moscow’s intention to launch another invasion in Ukraine.

It was a throwaway line during Wednesday night’s CNN town hall — but it’s arguably the most interesting one. Trump has long said Europe should spend more on its defense and that he wants the war in Ukraine to end immediately, regardless of who wins. But what stuck out was Trump mumbling that he and Putin discussed Russia’s intention to launch a second, larger incursion of Ukraine.

“His mistake was going in. He would’ve never gone in if I was president. We used to talk about it, too,” Trump told KAITLAN COLLINS.

ALEXANDER VINDMAN, a National Security Council specialist on Ukraine in the Trump administration who testified against the former president, told NatSec Daily that conversations about Russia’s aggression were “on the agenda consistently” during bilateral meetings. “It was in every set of talking points I drafted for him, all the background documents I prepped.”

Vindman wouldn’t disclose if Trump and Putin spoke about a renewed Ukrainian invasion, saying that was privileged information. But he did assert that warning Russia against escalating the war “was a regular topic.” Trump canceled a meeting with Putin at the G20 in 2018 over Russia shooting at and capturing Ukrainian sailors in the Kerch Strait.

A former Trump administration official, granted anonymity to detail direct presidential-level discussions, said Trump in at least one call told Putin that Russia couldn’t wade deeper into Ukraine because he had approved the transfer of anti-tank missiles to Kyiv. “It was in the context of ‘you can’t do what you did with Obama,’” the official said, noting that the annexation of Crimea and the “little green men” in the Donbas happened on that administration’s watch.

Asked about the town hall comment, Trump campaign spokesperson STEVEN CHEUNG pointed to multiple instances in which the GOP frontrunner made similar remarks, including during a March interview with Fox News’ SEAN HANNITY. “Putin would have never gone into Ukraine. I used to talk to him about it — I said ‘better not do it.’ And he wouldn’t have — we had a very friendly conversation about it: I said, ‘Hey, Vladimir, you can’t go into Ukraine,’” Trump told Hannity.

It seems that Trump’s main Ukraine argument in 2024 will be this: Putin invaded Ukraine twice, both times with Democrats in office and not once with me in charge (though, of course, Putin never withdrew his forces from Ukraine during the whole of Trump’s term).

Vindman has a different view of what happened. Putin’s positioning for the second military wave came soon after the insurrection of Jan. 6, 2021, he said. “Putin took advantage of the domestic divisions Trump created — he thought we were weak.”

CIA’S NEWEST HIRE: The CIA is hiring an expert on sexual assault prevention and announcing a number of new other steps as it attempts to address allegations of mishandling sexual assault and misconduct in its workforce, our own DANIEL LIPPMAN reports.

To lead its Sexual Assault Prevention and Response Office, the agency has hired TALEETA JACKSON, a psychologist who most recently oversaw the U.S. Navy’s sexual assault prevention program for more than 70 of its installations.

“I have personally met with several affected officers to hear their concerns and solicit their feedback on ways we can improve as an agency,” CIA director BILL BURNS said in a statement. “I have heard these concerns loud and clear, and Dr. Jackson’s appointment is just one of several steps we are taking to address them.”

Several female CIA employees have said in recent years that their cases of being sexually assaulted while working at the agency were mishandled. They went to Congress earlier this year to say that the agency was discouraging women from making sexual misconduct complaints and making it difficult for alleged victims to speak to law enforcement.

NOT QUITE READY: Kyiv needs more time to prepare before it launches its expected counteroffensive, Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said.

With the current amount of military aid, “we can go forward, and, I think, be successful,” Zelenskyy said in an interview with Eurovision News broadcasters on Thursday. “But we’d lose a lot of people. I think that’s unacceptable. So we need to wait. We still need a bit more time.”

The nation is waiting for more aid to be delivered, such as armored vehicles, he said. Meanwhile, the U.K. provided Ukraine with multiple Storm Shadow cruise missiles, giving it a new long-range strike capability, our own CRISTINA GALLARDO reports.

Meanwhile, the U.S. has accused South Africa of supplying ammunition to Russia, despite President CYRIL RAMAPHOSA having taken a neutral stance on Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, writes JOSEPH COTTERILL for the Financial Times.

The U.S. ambassador to South Africa, REUBEN BRIGETY, told regional media Thursday that Washington is “confident” that arms were loaded into a Russian cargo ship in Cape Town in December, which was docked at the Simon’s Town Naval Base in Cape Town.

The announcement comes as South Africa shows signs of growing closer to the Kremlin in recent months, including by hosting joint naval exercises with the country earlier this year.

MORE VIOLENCE IN ISRAEL-PALESTINE: Two senior Islamic Jihad leaders and an Israeli man were killed on Thursday as Israel and Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip traded airstrikes amid worsening violence in the region.

A 70-year-old man, whose apartment building was struck by a missile, was the first Israeli killed in the fighting that has spanned three days, the Associated Press’ FARES AKRAM and ILAN BEN ZION report. Twenty-eight Palestinians have been killed in the conflict so far.

Egyptian officials have been attempting to mediate a ceasefire, with top Islamic Jihad political bureau member MOHAMAD HINDI arriving in Cairo on Thursday to discuss the possibility. Egyptian mediators also traveled to Israel, though the Egyptian Foreign Minister SAMEH SHOUKRY said the efforts haven’t been successful.

BRUSSELS: DON’T ISOLATE CHINA: The diplomatic arm of the EU is calling on member countries to keep talking to China amid potential conflict in the Indo-Pacific, our own STUART LAU, JACOPO BARIGAZZI and SUZANNE LYNCH report.

Member countries should “be prepared” for a potentially critical escalation in the crisis over Taiwan, according to an internal document drafted by the European External Action Service, which warned that a military conflict would upend the vital supply of microchips to Europe.

SPY BALLOON STRATEGY: When the Chinese spy balloon floated over the U.S. in February, the State Department took care to not impose any harsh penalties on China in an effort to preserve its fragile relationship with Beijing.

Citing internal emails and four people with direct knowledge of U.S. policy, Reuters’ MICHAEL MARTINA outlines actions State held back from taking, including human rights-related sanctions and export controls. Instead, top officials insisted on delaying “non-balloon actions” to focus on a coordinated response, per a State Department email, and revisiting “other actions” later. Many of those measures have yet to be revisited, the sources said.

“Without commenting on specific actions, this work is sensitive and complex, and obviously sequencing is essential to maximize impact and make sure our messaging is clear and lands precisely,” a senior State Department official told Reuters.

IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [email protected] and [email protected], and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @Lawrence_Ukenye, @reporterjoe and @_AriHawkins.

‘PUPPET OF PUTIN’: That’s what Trump is in former New Jersey Gov. CHRIS CHRISTIE’s eyes following the former president’s fiery CNN town hall, in which he wouldn’t pick a side to support in the Russia-Ukraine war.

“I think he’s a coward and I think he’s a puppet of Putin,” Christie, who’s also weighing a presidential run, told radio host HUGH HEWITT on Thursday. “If you don’t say that you think Ukraine should win the war, I don’t know where you stand with Putin.”

Former Arkansas Gov. ASA HUTCHINSON, another GOP presidential contender, also had choice words for Trump following the town hall. For starters, Hutchinson said he was bothered by Trump’s claim that he could successfully negotiate with Putin to end the war.

“He basically talks about himself being a great negotiator,” Hutchinson said on CNN Wednesday night, before critiquing Trump’s potential negotiation skills. “It’s a terrible mistake, a terrible position, not supporting Ukraine.”

JOHN BOLTON, Trump’s former national security adviser and a potential presidential candidate, also chimed in to blast his former boss on Thursday: “Trump’s become a joke boasting he can end the Ukraine war in 24 hours immediately after losing a sexual abuse and defamation trial,” he wrote on Twitter.

FBI’S FISA PITCH: The FBI is ramping up its sales pitch that the internal changes they’ve made have dramatically reduced their number of surveillance query violations — a central issue in the upcoming debate over reauthorizing Section 702, our own JORDAIN CARNEY writes in.

The FBI released its FISA query audit that compared a review completed before their internal reforms to a second review conducted afterward. An FBI senior adviser touted the topline of the review: a 14 percent increase — from 82 percent to 96 percent — in query compliance in the batch selected to be audited. Director CHRISTOPHER WRAY, they added, had also accepted 11 recommendations from an internal auditing office for further boosting its compliance on queries related to U.S. persons.

Two things caught our eye: First, the two audits had different sample sizes and different sample guidelines for what queries got included — a distinction that makes straight comparison hard but, the adviser noted, helped the FBI focus in on some of their biggest query challenges in the second audit. Second, among the 17 queries in the second batch deemed to have insufficient justification were two related to “January 6th Capitol violence.”

CYBER COMMAND LEADER TO EXIT: U.S. Cyber Command and National Security Agency leader Gen. PAUL NAKASONE is planning to step down from his positions sometime this year, two people familiar with his plans confirmed Thursday, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!).

Two other people with knowledge of the situation confirmed that Nakasone will step down from the dual-hat position sometime in the next few months. They, and the former official, were granted anonymity to speak about a move that has not been formally announced.

The planned move would leave the nation’s top offensive cyber agencies without a Senate-confirmed leader at a time when the U.S. is continuing to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia, and as it works to defend critical networks at home. A former government official said Nakasone’s likely replacement will be Cyber Command Deputy Commander Lt. Gen. TIMOTHY HAUGH.

A LITTLE HELP FROM MY AI: The Army is for the first time using algorithms to cull classified documents for information to make decisions faster, software company Scale AI told our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!).

These algorithms are known in the tech industry as large language models, and they are the basis for ChatGPT and other AI-driven platforms. The Army is using Scale Donovan, the company’s federal AI software, to help analysts and operators understand, plan and make decisions in minutes instead of weeks.

One problem Scale AI is trying to solve is how to crunch the large amount of information military planners must analyze. For example, the system will ingest over 100,000 pages of Army situation reports, intelligence reports and orders.

COACHING BLOCKS: Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE (R-Ala.) doesn’t care that Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL opposes his blockage of military promotions over the Pentagon’s abortion policy.

“Everyone’s got their own opinion,” he told reporters Thursday, including our own JOE GOULD and CONNOR O’BRIEN (for Pros!). On this issue, McConnell is not his boss. “Not on this, he’s not. I am,” Coach T said.

Elsewhere in the Senate on Thursday, Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN and Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. MARK MILLEY made a plea to break the logjam, arguing the cumulative effect of holding up the promotions of top generals and admirals will harm military readiness.

Milley told Senate appropriators during a budget hearing that, including the families of top officers, between 3,000 and 4,000 people are affected by the impasse.

They also told the Senate Defense Appropriations Panel that breaching the debt limit would significantly damage U.S. standing in the world and call into question the country’s global leadership.

“China right now describes us in their open speeches, etc., as a declining power,” Milley said. “Defaulting on the debt would only reinforce that thought and embolden China and increase risk to the United States.”

Austin added that a default would mean a “substantial risk to our reputation” that China could exploit.

STILL WAITING: One year ago today, Palestinian American journalist SHIREEN ABU AKLEH was covering the aftermath of an Israeli raid in the West Bank when a volley of bullets struck her below the helmet, killing her instantly. In the time since U.S. government officials have done little to get her family justice, writes the Washington Post’s MIRIAM BERGER.

“Accountability means anyone and everyone involved in Shireen’s killing, whether it’s from the soldier who pulled the trigger all the way up to the chain of command, that they’re all held accountable,” LINA ABU AKLEH, Shireen’s niece, told WaPo.

The Israeli military did an internal investigation, and concluded that it was “highly likely” an Israeli soldier likely fired the bullets, but did so “accidentally.” The U.S. also led a forensic and ballistics analysis and determined the killing was unintentional.

However, investigations from numerous news organizations and human rights groups found no evidence of fighting or crossfire. Other reports suggest journalists were intentionally targeted in the West Bank. The family accused the U.S. last year of “skulking toward the erasure of any wrongdoing by Israeli forces.”

— GEETA RAO GUPTA has been confirmed to be ambassador-at-large for global women’s issues after months of waiting. She currently serves as executive director of the 3D Program for Girls and Women at the U.N. Foundation. Sen. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.), a SFRC member, tweeted “I fought to get Dr. Gupta’s nomination across the finish line…GOP obstruction is giving adversaries like Russia and China an edge — enough is enough.”

— CHARLIE CAMPBELL, TIME: Prime Minister FUMIO KISHIDA is giving a once pacifist Japan a more assertive role on the global stage

— SUZANNE LYNCH, POLITICO: Why the E.U. loves Erdoğan

— Sen. MARCO RUBIO, Nikkei Asia: U.S. needs more friends to counter Beijing’s ambitions

— Washington International Trade Association, 9 a.m.: 2023 WITA European Union Virtual Intensive Trade Seminar

— Permanent Council of the Organization of American States, 10:30 a.m.: Urgent matters of the Committee on Administrative and Budgetary Matters

— House Foreign Affairs Committee, 9:30 a.m.: Implementation of the Trafficking Victims Protection Act

— Cato Institute, 12 p.m.: Turkey’s Centennial Election: What Is at Stake?

— Asia Society, 12 p.m.: Conversation with CHRISTINE OCKRENT

— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 12 p.m.: U.S.-China Competition and Indo-Pacific Security

— Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 12 p.m.: Turkey’s Historic May 14 Elections: What to Expect

— Krach Institute for Tech Diplomacy, 12 p.m.: Fireside Chat with NATO Deputy Secretary General MIRCEA GEOANA

— George Washington University, 12:30 p.m.: Cross-Strait Relations and U.S. Strategy at a Crossroad

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who used to talk to us about her plans to usurp other newsletters.

We also thank our producer, Sinobia Aiden, who everyone talks to about their war aims.