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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let’s get into it.

In today’s edition:

→ A shuffle that means everything or nothing, depending on the source.

→ The longest hug at Rideau Hall.

→ PIERRE POILIEVRE rallies twice in northern Ontario.

MASSIVE OR INCONSEQUENTIAL — The pre-shuffle speculation that obsessed the fishbowl for most of Tuesday now feels like a fever dream.

Almost no minister was spared. Unnamed sources had both MARC MILLER and PABLO RODRIGUEZ headed to the transport ministry. Only one could. Who would it be? The suspense only grew.

The shuffle was said to be enormous. A total reset. Out with the old, in with the new, rookies promoted, has-beens demoted — a truly epic thing.

— Did it live up to the hype? It’s hard to argue with raw numbers. Cabinet stood pat at 38-strong, excluding the prime minister. But only 12 members of the team had the same jobs Wednesday that they fell asleep with Tuesday. Eighteen others were shuffled. Seven newbie backbenchers were sworn-in.

Every move affects real people and produces endless to-do lists.

Ministers’ families reorient their lives around a new calendar (“You have to travel where next week?”). Staff enter an anxious period. They’ll end up following the old boss, helping a new boss or taking a severance package. Bureaucrats polish off transition binders.

— Business as usual: Take a closer look, and you’ll find a lot of status quo.

CHRYSTIA FREELAND is still the deputy PM and finance minister.

Also in the same office: FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE at industry, MÉLANIE JOLY at foreign affairs, MARY NG at international trade, STEVEN GUILBEAULT at environment, JONATHAN WILKINSON at natural resources, PATTY HAJDU at Indigenous services, MARCI IEN at women and gender equality, GUDIE HUTCHINGS at rural economic development, SEAMUS O’REGAN at labor, FILOMENA TASSI at southern Ontario economic development and DAN VANDAL in northern affairs.

— Consequential or nah? Opinions are split, natch.

→ All sound and fury, signifying nothing: “The optics is a big shuffle,” ROBERT ASSELIN, senior VP of policy at the Business Council of Canada, tells Playbook. “But the government will stay the course on the main direction it has taken, which is not to be overly concerned about economic policy and continue to spend a lot of money.”

→ In with the old, in with the new: “We’re seeing a fortification of the core economic team,” said STEVIE O’BRIEN, a senior adviser at McMillan Vantage and former chief of staff to two Cabmins. “A combination of stable hands and continuity in Freeland and Champagne, but also adding some real high performers to key economic portfolios.”

Case in point: O’Brien’s old boss, ANITA ANAND, at the Treasury Board; MARC MILLER at immigration; SEAN FRASER at housing and infrastructure; and JEAN-YVES DUCLOS at public services and procurement.

— Intrigue watch: The fishbowl whisperers are wondering if Treasury Board and procurement are really, truly economic portfolios. Ask anyone for a list of Ministers Responsible for Part of the Economy. They’d likely note the buffet of economic development ministries before this twosome.

Tory MP MICHELLE REMPEL GARNER thinks Anand is being punished for something. MRG isn’t alone. There’s a truism about the Treasury Board presidency: It’s a crucial job that approves funding that powers government priorities. It’s also where high-profile ministers fade into the background.

— Tinkering with titles: Ng used to be minister for international trade, small business and export promotion. She lost the small business file to newcomer RECHIE VALDEZ, and export promotion leapfrogged trade in Ng’s formal title.

Wilkinson adds “energy” to his title. A single word, perhaps, but DAKOTA KOCHIE calls it a smart signal to industry, provinces and allies about a government priority. Kochie is director of government and external relations at the Nuclear Waste Management Organization and a former chief of staff at the Assembly of First Nations.

Right on cue: Newfoundland and Labrador Premier ANDREW FUREY gave his thumb’s up.

— Spin and reality: It’s a shuffle to zhuzh up communications, they said. A makeover to position the Liberals as speedy policy couriers, they said, the kind worthy of re-election.

That was the PMO’s narrative. Then it was revealed HARJIT SAJJAN would front emergency preparedness, a minister whose penchant for deniability has sprouted headlines giving him a reputation as someone who doesn’t read his emails.

— Another but: BILL BLAIR would succeed Anand as national defense minister. The promotion will put his, as the Globe and Mail’s SHANNON PROUDFOOT once put it, “excellent communication and elegant obfuscation” skills out on display.

Blair’s sometimes TMI tendencies will be put to the test in a job where saying less is more in fear of giving away sensitive operational details.

— In related reading: Here’s KYLE DUGGAN on the changes at defense.

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Gander, Newfoundland and Labrador. At 11:40 a.m. local time, he’ll meet with workers at a local business. Ministers SEAMUS O’REGAN and GUDIE HUTCHINGS will join him. At 12 p.m. local time — 10:30 a.m. in Ottawa — the PM will hold a media availability.

— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND will be in West Hants, Nova Scotia, the scene of violent flooding last weekend. At 1:15 p.m. local time, she’ll visit an emergency response center with a brief scrum to follow.

— Tory leader PIERRE POILIEVRE headlines two Ontario rallies: 12:30 p.m. in Sault Ste. Marie and 6:30 p.m. in Sudbury.

9 a.m. The Parliamentary Budget Officer will post a new report entitled “Fiscal Sustainability Report 2023.”

What journalists and pundits were saying about Wednesday’s shuffle:

ALEX BOUTILIER, Global News: “You don’t have to be able to read tea leaves or animal entrails to see that the political situation is deteriorating for Trudeau and the Liberals. Governments tend to have a shelf life, and no prime minister in modern Canadian history has won four-straight elections.”

PAUL WELLS on his Substack: “In some ways this prime minister really doesn’t do shakeups. He keeps his chief of staff, his indispensable deputy, his own way of thinking and talking about his government. Everything else swirls around. He came to office promising real change. Increasingly what’s real is what doesn’t change.”

SUSAN DELACOURT, The Toronto Star: “What rank-and-file Liberals should have learned again on Wednesday is that this prime minister is not afraid to bruise egos in the party, or crack a few careers for his overall purposes. Will this lead to a more restive, frustrated caucus? We will see in the fall.”

ANDREW COYNE, The Globe and Mail: “For the most part it does not matter. It does not matter which minister occupies which portfolio. Outside of the top dozen or so, the portfolios themselves do not matter. They are made-up jobs for make-work purposes.”

KIRK LAPOINTE, BIV: “Few could name more than two cabinet ministers. Mostly we focus on the leader, and when he reorders his team, he is suggesting either that his direction hasn’t been properly delivered or that those taking the direction haven’t properly delivered insights to him. It’s never him, himself.”

ERICA IFILL on social media: “I have continued questions for KATIE TELFORD and JUSTIN TRUDEAU as to why GREG FERGUS is still not a minister while they keep producing a C- cabinet. This is how the Liberals do anti-blackness. Our contributions are never enough.”

KARAMVEER LALH, The Hub: “It’s tough to say whether this shuffle will change the trajectory of this government. Our current political system is quite centralized, so a shuffle is not necessarily indicative of any policy shift. It should be a signal, however, that the government recognizes that it is wounded on those files. This overhaul is an attempt to stem the bleeding.”

AARON WHERRY, CBC News: “The Liberals can’t offer voters a completely different government. Aside from some new faces, they don’t seem particularly interested in offering dramatic change anyway. So their re-election hopes may rest on being able to make the case that the country and Canadians’ lives are changing for the better — or at least that the change offered by the other parties would be worse.”

BRYAN PASSIFIUME, National Post: “The shuffle — the biggest since coming to power in 2015 — is being seen by some as an end of the Liberals’ sunny days of yore.”

→ End of an era: DIANE LEBOUTHILLIER‘s run as revenue minister ends at 2,838 days — the last Trudeau Day One Cabmin to depart her first role.

→ Up next: Cabinet committee changes including members for the new “National Security Council,” billed by the PMO as a forum for ministers to discuss domestic and international security issues.

→ Still missing: A once-promised Council of Economic Advisers, billed in Budget 2022 as an expert-driven source of policy advice focused on “harnessing new opportunities and navigating increasingly complex economic challenges.”

BANG ON — Playbook proudly announces the inaugural Champion Prognosticator of the Summertime Shuffle, the fishbowl’s best connected and/or luckiest shuffle predictor.

The winner with 6 correct answers is HAYDEN FOUGERE, a constituency assistant to Housing and Infrastructure Minister SEAN FRASER.

An honorable mention goes to FERNANDO MELO, whose guess of 20 shuffled ministers was off by only one.

— Over/under on the number of shuffled ministers: OVER (19)

— Over/under on the number of new ministers: OVER (7)

— Over/under on the number of ministers dropped: OVER (7)

— Over/under on the size of Cabinet: EVEN (39)

— Over/under on the longest PMJT hug with a Cabmin: UNDER (7.28 seconds)

This wasn’t, strictly speaking, 100 percent hug: While Trudeau and newly sworn-in Justice Minister ARIF VIRANI were still in quasi-embrace, Virani leaned in to whisper something into Trudeau’s ear. He earns points for extending the moment. But the Wednesday mood was no match for the 2015 love-in that also featured 32 kisses.

— Over/under on the number of times PMJT employs a two-handed handshake: UNDER (0)

Every minister scored a hug exclusively; no two-handed shakes were to be seen.

— Pick ‘em: The first minister to walk up the road to Rideau Hall was Citizens’ Services Minister TERRY BEECH (British Columbia, A-M, 2015)

DOMINO EFFECT — Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE’s narratives are sticking — that the Liberal government can’t be trusted with the Canadian economy, for starters. By way of response, Trudeau reconfigured his Cabinet to front his “strongest possible economic team,” a move designed to give his government a temporary flush of new energy.

Now what? Summa Strategies vice chair KATE HARRISON read the shuffle as “nothing less than an overhaul” — an executive gut job. Here’s how she’s interpreting it:

“Dropping and swapping Ministers at this scale is unprecedented, and the only justification for a change so big, is because things are so bad. Cabinet ministers are only one part of the change today, as staff, departments and mandates will also see augmentations. But changing the messenger matters little when the message itself remains unchanged. And on key files — like affordability, cost of gas and groceries, or handouts to big businesses — Trudeau made no changes. While the Emperor in Justin Trudeau can change his proverbial clothes, he still remains the Emperor.”

Earnscliffe senior consultant MÉLANIE RICHER looked at the Liberal course correction through the lens of the NDP:

“For months this government struggled to get ahead of issues and respond in a way that reassures Canadians. The shuffle attempted to correct that. The ability of these new ministers to address the challenges families face will be the true test. This shuffle also presents an opportunity for the NDP: when the Liberals can’t call an election, show you can get them to deliver. The challenge? Showing New Democrats are the ones delivering, not this new Cabinet.”

— “New messengers for the same tired message.” That’s the Hub’s reaction to the shuffle.

— SHANNON PROUDFOOT is on The Decibel pod to discuss the summer shakeup.

— Question from the Star’s This Matters pod: Is DOUG FORD ‘excessively preoccupied’ with municipalities?

— APTN’s FRASER NEEDHAM reports: Chiefs in Manitoba encourage new minister to continue push for landfill search.

— Former parliamentary intern JONATHAN FERGUSON argues in The Hill Times for a second Chamber with a round seating plan.

— MARC MILLER, now minister of immigration, is in the hot seat on this week’s Herle Burly discussing his work as minister of Crown-Indigenous relations.

Birthdays: The happiest of birthdays to ex-Tory MPs PETER KENT and BEV ODA, former senators CAROLYN STEWART OLSEN, CLAUDETTE TARDIF and ex-Liberal MPs COLIN FRASER and SHAWN MURPHY.

Spotted: About 18 NCC landscapers embedded in between media, standing on the sidelines outside Rideau Hall, waiting for the day’s circus to clear so they could get back to work.

In memoriam: PAT CARNEY has died at 88. The former journalist, MP and senator lived a life of “firsts.” As noted in The Canadian Press obituary, Carney was:

— The first female Conservative member of Parliament elected in British Columbia.

— The first female Conservative appointed from the province to the Senate.

— The first female business columnist writing for daily newspapers, including the Vancouver Sun and Vancouver Province.

— The first woman in every government portfolio she held.

If you’re a subscriber, don’t miss our latest policy newsletter: The download on Trudeau’s reboot.

In other Pro headlines:
— DeSantis suggests he could pick RFK Jr. to lead the FDA or CDC.
— Democratic senator blames politics for Biden’s lack of free trade talks.
— U.S. moves at snail’s pace in energy dispute with Mexico.
— FBI warns that China, Russia using AI to step up cyberattacks.
— Fed hikes rates again — and leaves options open for more.

Wednesday’s answer: BARDISH CHAGGER, MARC GARNEAU and the now late JIM CARR were dropped from the Trudeau Cabinet in 2021.

Props to CAMERON RYAN, JOHN MERRIMAN, ROBERT MCDOUGALL and JOHN ECKER.

Today’s question: Name the former environment minister who is a member of the Canadian Broadcast Hall of Fame.

Send your answer to [email protected]

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