NIGHT MOVES — It’s as important as any donor summit, campaign cattle call or early straw poll that will take place this year. When Donald Trump takes the stage tonight in New Hampshire for a CNN town hall, it will effectively serve as the first primary of the presidential campaign — a defining event that will shape the course of the GOP nomination fight.

By now, the former president is so predictable that you can almost write the transcript in advance. When he is asked about Tuesday’s federal jury verdict that he sexually abused and defamed writer E. Jean Carroll, he’ll revert to familiar defenses — it’s part of a Democratic witch hunt, he’ll say, or he cannot get a fair trial in liberal New York City.

Trump is also likely to get the first adversarial questions on live television about his baseless claims of election fraud and his actions on Jan. 6. His history and m.o. strongly suggest he’ll deny and attack, while seizing the opportunity to disparage the media — especially a longtime nemesis like CNN.

Yet even if there are no forthcoming answers on the issues that are currently center stage, the town hall will still serve an important purpose. Depending on his performance, the event will provide either the catalytic effect of an early state victory or serve as the destabilizing influence necessary to dislodge him from frontrunner status.

For starters, we’ll discover the limits of his newly professionalized campaign. His political operation is better organized, and more tactical and forward-thinking than his previous two presidential bids. Is Trump a more disciplined candidate who can operate within that structure?

His interactions with CNN anchor Kaitlan Collins also bear watching. While the format is a town hall, rather than a one-on-one interview, Collins still stands to play a role almost as consequential as former CBS newsman Roger Mudd against Ted Kennedy in 1980. Only it isn’t a single, derailing question that poses the threat to Trump. Rather, it’s how he interacts with Collins and responds to her questioning.

The former president has been accused of sexual misconduct by more than two dozen women. He is one day removed from being held legally responsible for sexual assault against Carroll. Against that backdrop, and in light of his conflicts with female moderators in the past, Trump’s attitude and demeanor will be closely scrutinized. If there’s any hope of addressing the gender chasm that was revealed in the 2020 exit polls — Trump lost among women voters, 57 percent to 42 percent — it begins tonight.

A successful night — success as defined by the right, that is — will cement the impression of Trump’s inevitability. His GOP rivals, for the most part, have declined — or been too cowed — to comment on the Carroll verdict. That will continue with a status quo event. They understand the new iron law of Republican politics: the base wants you to fight like Trump, but not with Trump. They view an attack on the former president as an attack on them.

That fear factor will endure for as long as it’s plausible that Trump can defeat President Joe Biden.

A full-blown disaster tonight, on the other hand, resets the field. It would rattle the donor class, freeing up resources for other candidates. It would breathe life into the now-flagging case for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. A rough evening increases the likelihood that an additional challenger sees opportunity and jumps in. While it’s unlikely Trump’s iron grip on the party would be loosened, a bad night validates the deep party concerns about Trump’s general election viability by showcasing all the traits that made him a one-term president.

Instead, Republicans would be reminded of the risks of a Trump nomination — which now include a criminal indictment and a jury verdict that he is legally responsible for sexual assault.

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— Santos pleads not guilty to federal indictment alleging wide-ranging financial crimes: Rep. George Santos pleaded not guilty today to federal charges of wire fraud, money laundering and theft of public funds. He was released on a $500,000 bond after surrendering to authorities earlier in the day. In a 13-count indictment, federal prosecutors accused Santos, a first-term Republican from New York, of fraudulently obtaining unemployment benefits, using campaign contributions to pay down personal debts and purchase designer clothing, and lying to the House of Representatives about his financial condition.

— E. Jean Carroll’s lawyer: Trump has ‘no legitimate arguments’ for appeal: E. Jean Carroll’s legal team says they’re confident that any appeal from Trump has “no legitimate argument” after a jury found him liable of sexually abusing and defaming the writer on Tuesday. “I’ve rarely felt more confident about an appeal than I do about this one,” said Robbie Kaplan, Carroll’s lawyer, on NBC’s “Today” this morning. “They have no legitimate arguments for appeal.”

— Biden invites lawmakers to White House to discuss farm bill amid looming debt limit crisis: President Joe Biden has invited a small, bipartisan group of lawmakers to the White House Thursday to discuss the upcoming farm bill reauthorization, according to four people familiar with the plans who were granted anonymity to discuss internal conversations. Congress is aiming to write and pass what is expected to be a $1 trillion-plus bill, which will authorize U.S. food and agriculture spending for the next decade, by this fall. But even senior Senate Republicans are increasingly wary that the mounting debt crisis could derail the traditionally bipartisan farm bill.

SLOW START — Biden is slow rolling his campaign, even after his slick video launch two weeks ago. According to reporting from The New York Times’ Reid J. Epstein and Shane Goldmacher, his campaign manager hasn’t officially begun and he’s done fairly little outreach to his allies in Congress.

His top advisors say the leisurely rollout is purposeful, keeping down costs while they can. But some allies are worried. “Part of me is troubled that people are more enthusiastic about doing the often unglamorous work of government policymaking when there’s an extremely important political campaign that is staring us in the face,” said John Del Cecato, a strategist on Barack Obama’s 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns.

THE STATE OF WAGNER — Forces affiliated with Wagner, Russia’s leading paramilitary organization, continue to hold the majority of territory in the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut and possess significant stockpiles of ammunition despite some losses, according to two senior U.S. officials, reports Erin Banco.

Today, Ukrainian officials announced they had captured several of Wagner’s positions on the outskirts of the city. And within the last week, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of Wagner, appeared in a slew of videos on social media threatening to withdraw his soldiers entirely from the city — where they have led the fighting for the Russians in recent months —in part because they did not have the necessary weapons and ammunition.

The statements sparked widespread speculation that Wagner fighters may soon leave Bakhmut altogether, potentially creating an opening for Ukrainian forces to advance. The complete departure of Wagner forces would likely change the trajectory of the war in the eastern part of the country as Russia and Ukraine have been locked in an intense battle inside the city for months and have lost thousands of soldiers.

But U.S. officials said they have seen no evidence to suggest that Wagner is preparing for such a total retreat. Wagner continues to hold significant stockpiles of ammunition and maintains control of at least 85 percent of Bakhmut, the U.S. officials said. One of the officials said although Wagner forces appear intact in Bakhmut it is still possible that Chechen forces move into the city to help.

BIGGER NOT BETTER — What is the enduring American appeal of the “McMansion”? Huge, gaudy homes that owners couldn’t pay for became the enduring symbol of the housing crisis that brought on the Great Recession in 2008. But while that dip may have slowed down construction and changed what people want, the McMansion concept has continued. Today, they look more minimalist, with a preference for white walls and gray countertops. And they’re continuing to grow in size and scope, completely reshaping neighborhoods around the country. Read Kate Wagner in The Baffler about the evolution of these homes and how they help us understand the country.